Severe Thunderstorm Warning 63, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
319 PM CDT FRI JUN 3 2005

.DISCUSSION...

DAYS 1-2...

HAS BEEN A DIFFICULT DAY DETERMINING THE STATE OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
SEVERAL COMPLICATING FACTORS ARE/WERE THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE
OVERNIGHT MCS THAT TRACKED FIRST ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS AND THEN
SOUTH IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.  AT THE SAME TIME, A RATHER VIGOROUS
SOUTHERN BRANCH UPPER SYSTEM WAS MOVING NORTH/NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
TX PANHANDLE.  THROW IN VARIOUS MESOSCALE FEATURES AND IT MAKES FOR
CHALLENGING TIME IN THE OFFICE.

WITH THE TX PANHANDLE SYSTEM, THERE HAD BEEN A LARGE AND SOLID AREA
OF MAINLY RAIN MOVING NORTH TOWARD THE CWA.  WE UPPED THE POPS IN
ANTICIPATION OF THIS HOLDING TOGETHER.  HOWEVER, DURING THE
AFTERNOON THERE HAS BEEN AN OVER DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE.
HOWEVER, SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST HAS OCCURRED WHICH MAY YET
YIELD A FEW TSRA THAT WOULD MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.  WILL KEEP HIGHER
POPS EARLY AND GRADUALLY DECREASE THEM TOWARD MIDNIGHT.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE WEST WHEN THE NORTHERN BRANCH S/WV
TROUGH THAT BY AFTERNOON WAS MOVING INTO EASTERN UTAH.  THIS HAD
SOME DECENT COLD AIR ALOFT WITH IT...WHICH SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION TOMORROW.  SURFACE FEATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
SHOULD BE IN THE VICINITY DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.  WILL CARRY CHC
POPS WITH IT.

BY SUNDAY, RIDGING WILL BE TAKING PLACE SO WILL NOT HAVE PCPN
MENTIONED THEN.

DAYS 3-7...

MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE SPLIT FLOW AS SEVERAL WAVES ROTATE
AROUND THE PERSISTENT UPPER TROF OVER THE WRN CONUS. TIMING REMAINS
UNCERTAIN BUT EC/GFS BOTH SUGGEST THE BETTER OPPORTUNITY OF PCPN
WILL BE MID WEEK. CURRENT GRIDS REFLECTING WET REGIME WITH CLIMO
POPS MID WEEK. AT THIS TIME WILL LEAVE AS IS UNTIL CONFIDENCE
IMPROVES. DID REMOVE POPS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AS RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA.

AS FOR TEMPS KEPT TEMPS AOA CLIMATOLOGY AS IT LOOKS LIKE ANY COLD
AIR WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. WILL HAVE
TO WATCH LATE WEEK HOWEVER BUT TREND IN GRIDS REFLECT THIS WELL.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  61  82  57  83 /  60  40  30  10
GCK  57  78  56  83 /  60  40  30  10
EHA  57  78  55  83 /  60  30  20  10
LBL  58  82  56  83 /  60  30  20  10
HYS  60  79  56  85 /  60  50  40  10
P28  64  86  62  86 /  60  40  30  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

.KS...NONE.

&&

07/18

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
150 PM CDT FRI JUN 3 2005

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-041000-
BARBER-CLARK-COMANCHE-EDWARDS-ELLIS-FINNEY-FORD-GRANT-GRAY-HAMILTON-
HASKELL-HODGEMAN-KEARNY-KIOWA-LANE-MEADE-MORTON-NESS-PAWNEE-PRATT-
RUSH-SCOTT-SEWARD-STAFFORD-STANTON-STEVENS-TREGO-
150 PM CDT FRI JUN 3 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AN UPPER LEVEL STORM MOVING NORTH OUT OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL
HELP PRODUCE BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING.  THE STRONGEST STORMS THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON WILL BE APPROACHING INTERSTATE 70.  THERE IS SOME CHANCE
THAT ONE OR TWO OF THESE STORMS COULD BRIEFLY BECOME SEVERE.  THE
ENVIRONMENT IN THIS AREA IS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE TO PRODUCE A BRIEF
WEAK TORNADO.

ELSEWHERE THE MAIN THREAT FROM ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST STORMS COULD PRODUCE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY ACROSS ALL
OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS AS YET ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
THRU THE REGION. THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS ON
SATURDAY AND WILL BECOME THE FOCUS FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. IT
IS TOO EARLY TO SAY WHETHER THERE WILL BE ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER
OR NOT.

.SPOTTER ACTIVATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON ALONG I-70
AND AFTER 5 PM IN THE PRATT AND MEDICINE LODGE AREAS.

07

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
118 PM CDT FRI JUN 03 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1256 PM     TORNADO          7 WSW NESS CITY         38.41N 100.03W
06/03/2005                   NESS               KS   STORM CHASER

            TORNADO OBSERVED FROM 1256 TO 1259 PM.

&&

07