Severe Thunderstorm Warning 33, NWS Cleveland, OH

000 
WWUS51 KCLE 132256
SVSCLE

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
657 PM EDT FRI MAY 13 2005

OHC123-143-147-132330-
/O.CON.KCLE.SV.W.0033.000000T0000Z-050513T2330Z/
SENECA OH-SANDUSKY OH-OTTAWA OH-
657 PM EDT FRI MAY 13 2005


...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 730 PM EDT FOR
OTTAWA...SANDUSKY AND SENECA COUNTIES...


AT 652 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY
SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH.  THESE STORMS
WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM OAK HARBOR TO 7 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF NEW RIEGEL...AND MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  GIBSONBURG...
  ELMORE...
  HELENA...
  BURGOON...
  ROCKY RIDGE...
  BETTSVILLE...
  LINDSEY...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT.

LAT...LON 4151 8272 4151 8280 4146 8299 4142 8293
      4142 8285 4110 8284 4099 8322 4099 8341
      4161 8341 4162 8312 4152 8295 4155 8286
      4159 8285 4155 8279 4155 8272 4155 8272

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OHIO
305 PM EDT FRI MAY 13 2005

.SHORT TERM (THIS EVG THROUGH MONDAY)...
WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM ERN IA THRU NRN IL AND N/CNTRL INDIANA INTO
WESTERN AND CNTRL OH THIS AFTN WITH RAPIDLY DESTABILIZING AMS S OF
THE BNDRY.  LIS JUST S OF CWA DROP TO -5 TO -7 WITH MOST UNSTBL AIR
ACRS S-CNTRL INDIANA AT -8 LIS WITH SBCAPES OVER 3000J/KG.  SWLY
850MB JET FROM 35 TO 40 KTS ACRS INDIANA AND IS FCST BY ETA12 TO
INCR TO 50 TO 55KTS BY 03Z OVER NWRN OH.  FIRST SVR WATCH OF THE AFT
JUST ISSUED AND CLIPS NWRN OH BUT NOT CWA WITH SECOND WATCH QUICKLY
FOLLOWING TO THE SOUTHWEST.  SRH VALUES FROM 150 TO 200.  XPC ALL OF
THIS TO WORK SLOWLY EAST INTO THE CWA THUR THE LATE AFTN AND EVG
HOURS AND WARM FRONT PROGRESSES NE.  FOR TNGT WENT WITH 90% POPS AND
ATTEMPTED TO TIME PCPN IN WEST TO EAST.  ALSO HAVE INDICATED PSBL
SVR WIND AND HAIL IN GRAPHICS.  WILL LKLY WORD IN AS JUST ...SOME
POSSIBLY SEVERE IN ZONES.  FOR SATURDAY AND CONTS TO LOOK UNSTBL
ALTHOUGH NOT TO THE EXTENT OF THIS EVG.  ETA12 CAPES REMAIN BELOW
1000J/KG ALTHOUGH UPSTRM UPPR TROF PLENTY OF UVV.  AMS ALSO RMNS
VERY MOIST SO WILL GO WITH OCNL SHWRS AND TSTMS AGAIN WITH 80% POPS.
SAT NIGHT UPPR TROF MOVES ACRS LAKES WITH MOIST AMS THAT WILL TAKE
UNTIL MONDAY AFTN TO BEGIN TO THIN AND DRY OUT SO WL NEED TO KP CHC
TO LKLY POPS IN FOR SHWRS SAT NIGHT WEST TO EAST AND CHC POPS
SUNDAY.  SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY LOOKS LIKE MSTR WILL BE LOW ENOUGH
TO KP WRN HALF OF THE AREA DRY AND ONLY LOW CHC EAST.  TEMPS
SEASONAL SAT BUT DROP OFF SIGNIFICANTLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUE THRU FRI)...
00Z TUES 500MB HGTS SHOW THRU TROF N OF THE LAKES WITH A NICE RDG
BUILDING IN THE CNTRL PTN OF THE COUNTRY.  TDG TAKES MUCH OF THE
WEEK TO MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND CST.  THIS WILL KEEP HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 60S MID TO LATE WEEK AND ALSO KEEP AT LEAST CHC POPS WITH
SHWRS/TSTMS IN FCST THRU FRIDAY.  FRIDAY NIGHT AND SAT UPPR RDG
FCSTR TO BROADEN AND MOVE ACRS THE AREA SO NEXT WEEKEND STARTING OUT
LOOKING NICE. TIME WILL TELL.

&&
.AVIATION (18Z-18Z)...
WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE TERMINAL LOCATIONS
THIS AFTERNOON.  A SOUTHEAST WIND OVER MOST LOCATIONS AND DEW POINTS
ARE BEGINNING TO MOVE UP STEADILY.  THE HIGHER DEW POINTS ARE STILL
OVER SRN OH AND INDIANA.  AS THE WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY THIS
AFTERNOON...THE DEW POINTS WILL RAPIDLY JUMP.  THE CONCERN IS THE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.  THE
FOCUS OF THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ON THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN INDIANA.  LOW LEVEL 850 JET OVER THIS
AREA BEGINS TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY EAST THIS EVENING.  THE FOCUS FOR
SEVERE CONVECTION MAY BE OVER NE IN/NW OH.  IN THE WARM SECTOR MOST
LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN VFR.  VERY FEW CU DEVELOPING AS DRY AIR IS
STILL WELL IN PLACE.  I WILL BRING CLOUD COVER AND PCPN IN FROM THE
WEST AFTER 20Z.  THUNDERSTORMS NOT LIKELY OVER THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN TAF LOCATIONS UNTIL AFT 00Z.  WIDESPREAD PCPN WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY AROUND 06Z.  OCCASIONALLY PCPN AND THUNDER TO
CONTINUE AFT 12Z AS COLD FRONT MAKES SLOW PROGRESS TO THE EAST.
&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.OH...NONE.
.PA...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...GARNET

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
616 AM EDT FRI MAY 13 2005

OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089-PAZ001>003-141015-
ASHLAND OH-ASHTABULA INLAND OH-ASHTABULA LAKESHORE OH-CRAWFORD PA-
CRAWFORD OH-CUYAHOGA OH-ERIE OH-GEAUGA OH-HANCOCK OH-HOLMES OH-
HURON OH-KNOX OH-LAKE OH-LORAIN OH-LUCAS OH-MAHONING OH-MARION OH-
MEDINA OH-MORROW OH-NORTHERN ERIE PA-OTTAWA OH-PORTAGE OH-
RICHLAND OH-SANDUSKY OH-SENECA OH-SOUTHERN ERIE PA-STARK OH-
SUMMIT OH-TRUMBULL OH-WAYNE OH-WOOD OH-WYANDOT OH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...AKRON...ASHLAND...ASHTABULA...
BOWLING GREEN...BUCYRUS...CANTON...CHARDON...CLEVELAND...ELYRIA...
ERIE...FINDLAY...FOSTORIA...FREMONT...JEFFERSON...LORAIN...
MANSFIELD...MARION...MEADVILLE...MEDINA...MILLERSBURG...
MOUNT GILEAD...MOUNT VERNON...NORWALK...PAINESVILLE...PORT CLINTON...
RAVENNA...SANDUSKY...TIFFIN...TOLEDO...UPPER SANDUSKY...WARREN...
WOOSTER AND YOUNGSTOWN
616 AM EDT FRI MAY 13 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTION OF NORTHERN OHIO AND A
PORTION OF NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.  A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND NORTHWESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA LATER TODAY.  AT THE SAME TIME...AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL PASS OVERHEAD.  THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO
FEATURES WILL CAUSE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON.  A WEST TO EAST MOVING LINE OF STORMS IS LIKELY.  DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS COULD OCCUR WITH THESE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AS
A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION.  IT APPEARS THE
MAIN THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE FROM DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.