Tornado Warning 194, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
244 AM CST THU JAN 13 2005

.SYNOPSIS...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO AND ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND
EXIT THE SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT.  WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED.  SOME STORMS MAY BE
SEVERE.
&&

.SHORT TERM...WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE TIMING OF THE GFS THIS
FORECAST.  EXPECT COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
AREA LATER THIS MORNING AND MOVE RAPIDLY ACROSS THE AREA...EXITING
THE SOUTHEAST SECTIONS LATER TONIGHT.  IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL JET 50
TO 60 KNOTS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.  LATEST RADAR
INDICATES LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE MS RIVER.  GIVEN THE
IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL JET...DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S...STRONG UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION AND FORECAST LIFTED INDICES MINUS 1 TO
MINUS 2 AND TOTAL TOTALS AROUND 50...SPC HAS ENTIRE AREA OUT-LOOKED
FOR SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS.  WILL INCLUDE SEVERE WORDING IN
THE FORECAST FOR TODAY AND SAY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALL
SECTIONS.  ALSO GIVEN THE STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ISSUE A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY FOR ALL SECTIONS.

LATER TONIGHT...FRONT WILL BE SHIFTING TO OUR EAST AND RAIN WILL
TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST.  HIGHEST POPS WILL BE IN THE EAST AND
THEN WILL TAPER POPS DOWNWARD AFTER MIDNIGHT.

FRIDAY...MUCH DRIER...COOLER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND WILL
INDICATE A GRADUAL CLEARING TREND WITH NO POPS IN THE FORECAST.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH  PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA
AT THE SURFACE AND SOME HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SHIFT FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA IN THE FORM OF SOME HIGH
CLOUDS.  TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL READINGS.
&&

.LONG TERM(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)....UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE WEST
TO NORTHWEST AND ALLOWS A SECONDARY SURGE OF COLDER AIR ON TUESDAY.
OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME PASSING MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

GADSDEN    67 40 49 30 55 / 100 80 00 00
ANNISTON   68 41 51 31 55 / 100 90 00 00
BIRMINGHAM 68 40 51 30 54 / 100 70 00 00
TUSCALOOSA 68 40 51 30 54 / 100 50 00 00
CALERA     68 40 51 30 53 / 100 70 00 00
AUBURN     70 47 55 33 56 / 100 90 05 00
MONTGOMERY 71 45 55 32 59 / 100 90 05 00
TROY       71 48 55 34 58 / 100 90 05 00
&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR ALL
SECTIONS TODAY.
&&

50

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
610 AM CST THU JAN 13 2005

ALZ011>015-017>050-131700-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
610 AM CST THU JAN 13 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...(TODAY AND TONIGHT).

...A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN PORTION OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA UNTIL 11 AM...

A STRONG COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SQUALL LINE WILL MOVE ACROSS
ALABAMA TODAY. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY. AT THIS
TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SQUALL LINE WILL
ENTER WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK.  A TORNADO
WATCH HAS ALREADY BEEN ISSUED FOR WESTERN ALABAMA UNTIL 11 AM. MORE
WATCHES APPEAR LIKELY. ALONG WITH THE TORNADO THREAT...STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WILL LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY).

NO OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

...SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL NEED TO ACTIVATE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
852 AM CST THU JAN 13 2005

ALZ030>032-039-131520-
GREENE-HALE-MARENGO-SUMTER-
852 AM CST THU JAN 13 2005

...A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 AM...

A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AT
35 TO 40 MPH ACROSS GREENE...HALE...MARENGO...AND SUMTER COUNTIES.
SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD STILL BE STRONG TO SEVERE...
WITH DAMAGING WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL POSSIBLE.  THIS LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR A
WILEY...TO GREENSBORO...TO LINDEN LINE BY 920 AM.

JBW