Flash Flood Warning 32, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
513 AM CDT WED JUL 6 2005

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...

CINDY CONTINUES TO MAKE HER WAY TOWARDS CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS MORNING.
IT IS SAFE TO SAY THAT MOST OF THE CWA WILL SEE RAIN AT SOME POINT
TODAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY COULD RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES. THIS
AMOUNT COULD CHANGE DEPENDING ON THE TRACK AND SPEED OF THIS
TROPICAL SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL NOT CLIMB MUCH DUE TO THE
CLOUD COVER AND THE RAIN. I PRETTY MUCH WENT BELOW ALL MOS ON
TEMPERATURES. AS FAR AS WINDS GO...I THINK THE THE STRONGER WINDS
WILL BE FELT OVER OUR SOUTHERN ZONES...BUT MOST AREAS WILL SEE
SOME GUSTY WINDS.

FOR TONIGHT...MOST OF THE HEAVY RAIN WILL BE LOCATED OVER OUR EASTERN
HALF OF THE CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD...MOSTLY IN THE 70S.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY AS THE CENTER OF CINDY MOVES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MOST OF THE EVENING AND BEGIN TO
DECREASE CLOSER TO SUNRISE.

THURSDAY...SOME OF THE REMNANTS OF CINDY WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
THE FORECAST AREA. THE BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE OVER OUR
EASTERN ZONES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD...MOSTLY IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...CINDY WILL BE LONG GONE AND TEMPERATURES
WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY CLIMB BACK TO NORMAL...MEANING TEMPERATURES
IN THE 90S WILL BE BACK ON THE FORECAST. ALTHOUGH MODELS SHOW A
DRIER TREND...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE DUE TO THE
LEFTOVER MOISTURE AND AFTERNOON HEATING. I DO NOT THINK THAT THE
MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON THAT.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...

THE FUTURE OF DENNIS WILL PLAY A BIG IMPACT ON THE WEATHER ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA DURING THE FIRST PART OF THIS PERIOD.  DID NOT WANT
TO MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THIS PERIOD GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY OF TROPICAL CYCLONE TRACKS BEYOND THREE DAYS. MAINLY
WANTED TO DEPICT HIGHER RAIN CHANCES IN THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES AND
COOLER DAYTIME TEMPS.  TRENDED RAIN CHANCES DOWN BY MID WEEK
ASSUMING DENNIS IS OUT OF THE PICTURE BY THAT TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     80  70  82  65 /  80 100  60  20
ANNISTON    80  71  83  67 /  80 100  60  20
BIRMINGHAM  80  70  83  68 /  90  90  50  20
TUSCALOOSA  80  70  89  69 / 100  70  20  20
CALERA      80  71  85  68 / 100  90  50  20
AUBURN      82  70  83  70 /  80 100  60  20
MONTGOMERY  81  72  87  72 / 100  80  40  20
TROY        81  74  85  71 / 100  80  40  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...LAKE WIND ADVISORY AND FLASH
FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER HALF OF THE CWA UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY.

&&

10/58

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
544 PM CDT TUE JUL 5 2005

ALZ011>015-017>050-062244-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
544 PM CDT TUE JUL 5 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...(THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT).

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 9PM.  NO WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED...HOWEVER...A FEW STRONG COULD BECOME
STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

WET MICROBURST POTENTIAL:
BIRMINGHAM...LOW.
MONTGOMERY...MODERATE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY).

TROPICAL STORM CINDY IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL TONIGHT ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI COAST. BANDS OF RAINFALL OUT AHEAD OF CINDY WILL BEGIN
MOVING INTO THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. CINDY WILL IMPACT
MAINLY SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...ROUGHLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM LIVINGSTON...TO CLANTON...ALEXANDER CITY...AND
LAFAYETTE. IN THIS AREA...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 5
INCHES...AND GUSTY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM
WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THERE WILL ALSO BE A
THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES WITH THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED IN RAIN
BANDS. A FLOOD WATCH AND LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.

AS CINDY MOVES NORTHEASTWARD THURSDAY...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH...AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL TAPER OFF. THERE IS A THREAT
OF MINOR RIVER FLOODING EXTENDING INTO THE END OF THE WEEK...
INCLUDING THE LOWER TOMBIGBEE AND ALABAMA RIVER BASINS.

LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...TROPICAL STORM DENNIS MAY EFFECT THE
WARNING AREA. STAY TUNED TO LATER OUTLOOKS AND FORECASTS FOR THE
LATEST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT MAY BE REQUIRED OVER
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY.