Alert archive / Minnesota / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2005

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 101, NWS La Crosse, WI

September 13, 2005Winona County, Minnesota

NWS La Crosse, WI issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Sep 13, 2005, 2:58 PM CDT for Winona County, Minnesota. It was in force for 24 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Sep 13, 2005, 2:58 PM CDT (19:58 UTC)
Expired: Sep 13, 2005, 3:22 PM CDT
In force: 24 min
Issued by: NWS La Crosse, WI
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Winona County, MN

The radar

The La Crosse radar (KARX), 33 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:59 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Sep 13, 2:20 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	4 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Davenport, (KDVN), launched 12:00Z, 8.0 hours before the alert went out and 269 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 126 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -276 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1589 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 20 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 199 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 194 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WUUS53 KARX 131958
SVRARX
MNC169-132100-
/O.NEW.KARX.SV.W.0101.050913T1958Z-050913T2100Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
258 PM CDT TUE SEP 13 2005

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LA CROSSE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  WINONA COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA

* UNTIL 400 PM CDT

* AT 258 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR DETECTED A SEVERE
  THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING LARGE HAIL 2 MILES SOUTH OF HART...OR ABOUT
  14 MILES SOUTH OF WINONA. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS MOVING
  NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  RIDGEWAY AND WITOKA AROUND 305 PM...
  NEW HARTFORD AND PICKWICK AROUND 310 PM...
  NODINE AND I 90 EXIT 266 AROUND 315 PM...

THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL. FOR
YOUR PROTECTION...MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF
YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

LAT...LON 4386 9150 4385 9152 4385 9177 4389 9182
      4392 9179 4399 9164 4404 9158 4390 9137
      4389 9137

$$

BOYNE

3 follow-up statements

000 
WWUS53 KARX 132007
SVSARX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
305 PM CDT TUE SEP 13 2005

MNC169-132100-
/O.CON.KARX.SV.W.0101.000000T0000Z-050913T2100Z/
WINONA MN-
307 PM CDT TUE SEP 13 2005

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM CDT
FOR WINONA COUNTY...

AT 256 PM...PUBLIC REPORTED NICKEL TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL 3 MILES NORTH
OF PETERSON IN NORTHEAST FILLMORE COUNTY.

AT 305 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR DETECTED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL OVER HART...OR ABOUT 14 MILES
SOUTH OF WINONA. THE SEVERE STORM WAS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  RIDGEWAY AND WITOKA AROUND 310 PM...
  NEW HARTFORD AND PICKWICK AROUND 315 PM...
  NODINE AND I 90 EXIT 266 AROUND 320 PM...

TAKE COVER IN A BASEMENT OR IN AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR
AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS

LAT...LON 4386 9150 4385 9152 4385 9177 4389 9182
      4392 9179 4399 9164 4404 9158 4390 9137
      4389 9137

$$

BOYNE

000 
WWUS53 KARX 132013
SVSARX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
313 PM CDT TUE SEP 13 2005

MNC169-132100-
/O.CON.KARX.SV.W.0101.000000T0000Z-050913T2100Z/
WINONA MN-
313 PM CDT TUE SEP 13 2005

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM CDT
FOR WINONA COUNTY...

AT 313 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR DETECTED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL OVER I 90 EXIT 257...OR ABOUT
10 MILES SOUTH OF WINONA. THE SEVERE STORM WAS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 
40 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  NODINE AND I 90 EXIT 266 AROUND 320 PM...

TAKE COVER IN A BASEMENT OR IN AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR
AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS

LAT...LON 4386 9150 4385 9152 4385 9177 4389 9182
      4392 9179 4399 9164 4404 9158 4390 9137
      4389 9137

$$

BOYNE

000 
WWUS53 KARX 132022
SVSARX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
322 PM CDT TUE SEP 13 2005

MNC169-132032-
/O.CAN.KARX.SV.W.0101.000000T0000Z-050913T2100Z/
WINONA MN-
322 PM CDT TUE SEP 13 2005

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR WINONA COUNTY HAS BEEN
CANCELLED...

IMMINENT SEVERE WEATHER IS NO LONGER A THREAT. THEREFORE...THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR WINONA COUNTY HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

LAT...LON 4386 9150 4385 9152 4385 9177 4389 9182
      4392 9179 4399 9164 4404 9158 4390 9137
      4389 9137

$$

BOYNE

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS La Crosse, WI wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Sep 13, 2:55 AM CDT, 12 hours 3 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Sep 13, 2:55 AM CDT, 12 hours 3 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
255 AM CDT TUE SEP 13 2005

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
TODAY/TONIGHT...AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY.

DATA ANALYSIS AT 2 AM DEPICTED A SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM
NORTHWEST WI...THROUGH SOUTHWEST MN AND INTO EASTERN NEB. EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT (EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE LOOP) WAS KICKING OFF SCATTERED CONVECTION...SOME
STRONG...FROM NORTHWEST IA...THROUGH SOUTHERN MN...INTO NORTHWEST
HALF OF WI.

00Z 13SEP05 MODEL RUN SHOWS NAM INITIALIZING BETTER THEN THE GFS
WITH REGARD TO CURRENT CONVECTION. BEYOND THIS...APPEARS BOTH
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THEIR MASS FIELDS UNTIL THURSDAY
NIGHT.

FOR TODAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...PUSHING THE SURFACE COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL WI BY
THIS EVENING. NAM SHOWS BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT/SURFACE HEATING...AND
RESULTANT SURFACE BASED CAPE WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
ALREADY BY EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...LIFT ALONG THE FRONT AIDED WITH COOLING
ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/FAVORED
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF 300MB JETLET/APPROACHING EMBEDDED MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE FROM CENTRAL PLAINS...SHOULD ALL COME TOGETHER FOR
REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION TODAY. WILL MAINTAIN THE LIKELY CHANCES
CURRENTLY IN THE GRID DATA BASE.

THE COLD FRONT FRONT REMAINS PROGRESSIVE...PUSHING WELL EAST OF THE
AREA BY MIDNIGHT...TAKING THE RAIN CHANCES WITH IT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA...PROVIDING CLEARING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA
LATER IN THE NIGHT. CLEARING SKIES...RECENT RAINFALL...AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL THEN LIKELY LEAD TO SOME RIVER VALLEY FOG. WILL INCLUDE
THIS IN THE WEATHER GRID FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING HOURS
WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH CONTINUES AND SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY FOR QUIET AND SEASONABLY COOLER CONDITIONS. THE HIGH
ALREADY BUDGES EAST OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW MOVE EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA/NORTHERN PLAINS. APPEARS THAT THE MODELS ARE TAKING THE WAVE
A BIT MORE NORTH THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...PLACING MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED
FORCING NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. WILL HOWEVER
MAINTAIN A SMALL CHANCE OF SHRA/TS ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE FORECAST AREA WHICH WILL REMAIN ON THE EASTERN EDGE
OF WEAK TO MODERATE MOISTURE TRANSPORT BETWEEN 850 AND 925MB.

NAM AND GFS DIFFER THURSDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. THE NAM TAKES THE COLD
FRONT FROM THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN LOW SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA WITH
LIGHT QPF. MEANWHILE...THE GFS WANTS TO LIFT THE BOUNDARY BACK NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT IN ADVANCE OF A NEW WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. IT ALSO SHOWS NO PRECIPITATION. WILL TAKE A
COMPROMISE HERE AND INCREASE THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA...BUT WILL
LEAVE DRY FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY

00Z 13SEP05 GFS CONTINUING TO SHOW A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS FLOW REMAINS FAIRLY HIGH ZONAL. PRETTY STRONG CYCLOGENESIS
TAKES PLACE OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA SATURDAY NIGHT. THE LOW THEN
TRACKS QUICKLY NORTHEAST TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST ON
SUNDAY...SPREADING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA.
GRIDS HAVE THIS HANDLED WELL...SO NO CHANGES MADE.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

DAS

Hazardous weather outlook, Sep 13, 2:25 PM CDT, 33 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
225 PM CDT TUE SEP 13 2005

IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029-032>034-
041>044-053>055-061-141000-
ADAMS-ALLAMAKEE-BUFFALO-CHICKASAW-CLARK-CLAYTON-CRAWFORD-DODGE-
FAYETTE-FILLMORE-FLOYD-GRANT-HOUSTON-HOWARD-JACKSON-JUNEAU-LA CROSSE-
MITCHELL-MONROE-MOWER-OLMSTED-RICHLAND-TAYLOR-TREMPEALEAU-VERNON-
WABASHA-WINNESHIEK-WINONA-
225 PM CDT TUE SEP 13 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL
WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...
EXITING INTO EASTERN WISCONSIN THIS EVENING. TO THE SOUTHWEST...AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SPIN NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...
TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN ALSO DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
THESE WEATHER FEATURES WILL WORK ON THE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION
TO TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
INSTABILITY AND WIND PROFILES WILL FAVOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...WITH ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ALSO POSSIBLE. THE MAIN
THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME THURSDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
WILL BE NORTH OF A LINE FROM AUSTIN AND WINONA MINNESOTA...TO
NEILLSVILLE WISCONSIN. IT DOES NOT APPEAR AT THIS TIME THAT ANY OF
THESE STORMS WILL BECOME SEVERE.  THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
ON SUNDAY...BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE IF SEVERE WEATHER WILL
OCCUR.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
THIS EVENING. SPOTTER GROUPS SHOULD BE PREPARED TO DEPLOY AS
THUNDERSTORMS APPROACH THEIR AREA. THE MOST FAVORABLE TIMES FOR
ACTIVATION WILL BE THROUGH 6 PM.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

NO CALL IS SCHEDULED.

RIECK

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Sep 13, 11:53 AM CDT, 3 hours 5 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1153 AM CDT TUE SEP 13 2005

IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-WIZ054-055-061-140000-
ALLAMAKEE-CHICKASAW-CLAYTON-CRAWFORD-FAYETTE-FLOYD-GRANT-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
RICHLAND-WINNESHIEK

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
781 IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS

IN IOWA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 8 COUNTIES

IN NORTH CENTRAL IOWA

FLOYD                 MITCHELL

IN NORTHEAST IOWA

ALLAMAKEE             CHICKASAW             CLAYTON
FAYETTE               HOWARD                WINNESHIEK

IN WISCONSIN THIS WATCH INCLUDES 3 COUNTIES

IN SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN

CRAWFORD              GRANT                 RICHLAND

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...CHARLES CITY...CRESCO...DECORAH...
ELKADER...NEW HAMPTON...OELWEIN...OSAGE...PLATTEVILLE...
PRAIRIE DU CHIEN...RICHLAND CENTER AND WAUKON.

Local storm report, Sep 13, 2:14 PM CDT, 44 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
214 PM CDT TUE SEP 13 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0212 PM     HAIL             3 N STACYVILLE          43.48N 92.78W
09/13/2005  0.75 INCH        MITCHELL           IA   PUBLIC

&&

SHEA

Special weather statement, Sep 13, 2:21 PM CDT, 37 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
221 PM CDT TUE SEP 13 2005

MNZ079-087-088-094>096-WIZ017-029-032>034-041>044-053-140200-
ADAMS-BUFFALO-CLARK-FILLMORE-HOUSTON-JACKSON-JUNEAU-LA CROSSE-MONROE-
MOWER-OLMSTED-TAYLOR-TREMPEALEAU-VERNON-WABASHA-WINONA

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
782 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS

IN MINNESOTA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 6 COUNTIES

IN SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA

FILLMORE              HOUSTON               MOWER
OLMSTED               WABASHA               WINONA

IN WISCONSIN THIS WATCH INCLUDES 10 COUNTIES

IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN

ADAMS                 CLARK                 JUNEAU

IN NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN

TAYLOR

IN SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN

VERNON

IN WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN

BUFFALO               JACKSON               LA CROSSE
MONROE                TREMPEALEAU

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...AUSTIN...CALEDONIA...FRANKLIN...
GLENDALE...INDEPENDENCE...LA CROSSE...MAUSTON...MEDFORD...
NEILLSVILLE...ONALASKA...ROCHESTER...RUSHFORD...VIROQUA...
WABASHA AND WINONA.

IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-WIZ054-055-061-140000-
ALLAMAKEE-CHICKASAW-CLAYTON-CRAWFORD-FAYETTE-FLOYD-GRANT-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
RICHLAND-WINNESHIEK

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 781 REMAINS VALID UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS

IN IOWA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 8 COUNTIES

IN NORTH CENTRAL IOWA

FLOYD                 MITCHELL

IN NORTHEAST IOWA

ALLAMAKEE             CHICKASAW             CLAYTON
FAYETTE               HOWARD                WINNESHIEK

IN WISCONSIN THIS WATCH INCLUDES 3 COUNTIES

IN SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN

CRAWFORD              GRANT                 RICHLAND

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...CHARLES CITY...CRESCO...DECORAH...
ELKADER...NEW HAMPTON...OELWEIN...OSAGE...PLATTEVILLE...
PRAIRIE DU CHIEN...RICHLAND CENTER AND WAUKON.

Local storm report, Sep 13, 2:51 PM CDT, 7 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
251 PM CDT TUE SEP 13 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0250 PM     HAIL             1 W PETERSON            43.79N 91.85W
09/13/2005  0.88 INCH        FILLMORE           MN   PUBLIC

            NICKEL SIZE HAIL

&&

SHEA

The office that day

Everything else NWS La Crosse, WI issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Sep 13, 1:19 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ARX	Dodge	26 min
Sep 13, 3:32 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ARX	Houston	28 min
Sep 13, 4:15 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	ARX	Houston, Winona	3 hr

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Minnesota, 2005 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2005

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.