High Wind Watch 2, NWS Gaylord, MI

Alcona County, MI, Alpena County, MI, Antrim County, MI, Arenac County, MI, Benzie County, MI, Cheboygan County, MI, Crawford County, MI, Emmet County, MI, Gladwin County, MI, Grand Traverse County, MI, Iosco County, MI, Kalkaska County, MI, Leelanau County, MI, Manistee County, MI, Missaukee County, MI, Montmorency County, MI, Ogemaw County, MI, Oscoda County, MI, Otsego County, MI, Presque Isle County, MI, Roscommon County, MI, Wexford County, MI

000 
WWUS73 KAPX 122112
NPWAPX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
412 PM EST SAT NOV 12 2005

...DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE SUNDAY...

.DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL PULL A
STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN SUNDAY MORNING. IN
THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT...STRONG AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING.

MIZ008-015>036-041-042-130515-
/O.UPG.KAPX.HW.A.0002.051113T1100Z-051114T0500Z/
/O.NEW.KAPX.HW.W.0002.051113T1100Z-051114T0500Z/
CHIPPEWA-MACKINAC-EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-CHARLEVOIX-
LEELANAU-ANTRIM-OTSEGO-MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-
KALKASKA-CRAWFORD-OSCODA-ALCONA-MANISTEE-WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE-
ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-IOSCO-GLADWIN-ARENAC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SAULT STE. MARIE...ST. IGNACE...
PETOSKEY...CHEBOYGAN...ROGERS CITY...CHARLEVOIX...NORTHPORT...
MANCELONA...GAYLORD...ATLANTA...ALPENA...FRANKFORT...
TRAVERSE CITY...KALKASKA...GRAYLING...MIO...HARRISVILLE...
MANISTEE...CADILLAC...LAKE CITY...HOUGHTON LAKE...WEST BRANCH...
TAWAS CITY...GLADWIN...STANDISH
412 PM EST SAT NOV 12 2005

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST
SUNDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST
SUNDAY NIGHT.

DAMAGING SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 60 MPH MAY DEVELOP ACROSS
NORTHERN MICHIGAN SUNDAY MORNING...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...WHEN WINDS WILL SWING
TOWARD THE WEST AND NORTHWEST.

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED
OR OCCURRING. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH OR GUSTS
OF 58 MPH OR MORE CAN LEAD TO PROPERTY DAMAGE AND MAKE DRIVING A
HIGH PROFILE VEHICLE DIFFICULT.

$$

000 
WWUS73 KAPX 130352
NPWAPX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1052 PM EST SAT NOV 12 2005

...DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE SUNDAY...

.DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL PULL A
STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN SUNDAY MORNING. IN
THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT...STRONG AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING.

MIZ008-015>036-041-042-131100-
/O.CON.KAPX.HW.W.0002.051113T1100Z-051114T0500Z/
CHIPPEWA-MACKINAC-EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-CHARLEVOIX-
LEELANAU-ANTRIM-OTSEGO-MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-
KALKASKA-CRAWFORD-OSCODA-ALCONA-MANISTEE-WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE-
ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-IOSCO-GLADWIN-ARENAC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SAULT STE MARIE...ST IGNACE...
PELLSTON...CHEBOYGAN...ROGERS CITY...CHARLEVOIX...LELAND...
BELLAIRE...GAYLORD...ATLANTA...ALPENA...FRANKFORT...
TRAVERSE CITY...KALKASKA...GRAYLING...MIO...HARRISVILLE...
MANISTEE...CADILLAC...LAKE CITY...HOUGHTON LAKE...WEST BRANCH...
OSCODA...GLADWIN...STANDISH
1052 PM EST SAT NOV 12 2005

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO
MIDNIGHT EST SUNDAY NIGHT...

A HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO
MIDNIGHT EST SUNDAY NIGHT. 

DAMAGING SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SUNDAY MORNING IN
THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH...WITH GUSTS
EXCEEDING 55 MPH. SHORELINE AREAS ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN ARE EXPECTED
TO EXPERIENCE THE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS...WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY OVER
65 MPH.  THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING...WHEN WINDS WILL SWING TOWARD THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST.

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED.
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH OR GUSTS OF 58 MPH OR
MORE CAN LEAD TO PROPERTY DAMAGE AND MAKE DRIVING A HIGH PROFILE
VEHICLE DIFFICULT. 

HIGH WAVES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO BE GENERATED ON LAKE MICHIGAN BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...LIKELY EXCEEDING 15 FEET. PERSONS SHOULD STAY
OFF PIERS AND BREAKWATERS AS HIGH WAVES WILL FLOOD THESE
STRUCTURES AND MAKE THEM EXTREMELY DANGEROUS.

$$

JPB

000 
WWUS73 KAPX 130914
NPWAPX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
414 AM EST SUN NOV 13 2005

...DAMAGING WINDS TODAY AND THIS EVENING...

.POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL PRODUCE
DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN TODAY THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

MIZ008-015>036-041-042-132300-
/O.CON.KAPX.HW.W.0002.051113T1100Z-051114T0500Z/
CHIPPEWA-MACKINAC-EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-CHARLEVOIX-
LEELANAU-ANTRIM-OTSEGO-MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-
KALKASKA-CRAWFORD-OSCODA-ALCONA-MANISTEE-WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE-
ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-IOSCO-GLADWIN-ARENAC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SAULT STE. MARIE...ST. IGNACE...
PETOSKEY...CHEBOYGAN...ROGERS CITY...CHARLEVOIX...NORTHPORT...
MANCELONA...GAYLORD...ATLANTA...ALPENA...FRANKFORT...
TRAVERSE CITY...KALKASKA...GRAYLING...MIO...HARRISVILLE...
MANISTEE...CADILLAC...LAKE CITY...HOUGHTON LAKE...WEST BRANCH...
TAWAS CITY...GLADWIN...STANDISH
414 AM EST SUN NOV 13 2005

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST
TONIGHT...

A HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT.

VERY STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL OVERSPREAD NORTHERN MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING. EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH...WITH DAMAGING
GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH. STRONGEST GUSTS...POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 65
MPH...WILL IMPACT SHORELINE AREAS ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN TODAY.
THEN...AS WINDS SWING TOWARD THE WEST AND NORTHWEST BY THIS EVENING...
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WITH DAMAGING GUSTS TO 60 MPH WILL
CONTINUE...AND GUSTS EXCEEDING 65 MPH MAY IMPACT COASTAL AREAS
ALONG WHITEFISH BAY AND THE UPPER ST MARYS RIVER...AS WELL AS COASTAL
LOCATIONS FROM CHARLEVOIX...TO CHEBOYGAN...TO PRESQUE ISLE.

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS
EXPECTED. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH OR GUSTS OF
58 MPH OR MORE CAN LEAD TO PROPERTY DAMAGE AND MAKE DRIVING A
HIGH PROFILE VEHICLE DIFFICULT.

HIGH WAVES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO BE GENERATED ON LAKE MICHIGAN BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...LIKELY EXCEEDING 15 FEET. PERSONS SHOULD STAY
OFF PIERS AND BREAKWATERS AS HIGH WAVES WILL FLOOD THESE
STRUCTURES AND MAKE THEM EXTREMELY DANGEROUS.

$$

000 
WWUS73 KAPX 132053
NPWAPX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
353 PM EST SUN NOV 13 2005

...DAMAGING WINDS CONTINUE THIS EVENING...

.POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL CONTINUE PRODUCE
DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGH THIS EVENING.

MIZ008-015>036-041-042-140500-
/O.CON.KAPX.HW.W.0002.000000T0000Z-051114T0500Z/
CHIPPEWA-MACKINAC-EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-CHARLEVOIX-
LEELANAU-ANTRIM-OTSEGO-MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-
KALKASKA-CRAWFORD-OSCODA-ALCONA-MANISTEE-WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE-
ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-IOSCO-GLADWIN-ARENAC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SAULT STE. MARIE...ST. IGNACE...
PETOSKEY...CHEBOYGAN...ROGERS CITY...CHARLEVOIX...NORTHPORT...
MANCELONA...GAYLORD...ATLANTA...ALPENA...FRANKFORT...
TRAVERSE CITY...KALKASKA...GRAYLING...MIO...HARRISVILLE...
MANISTEE...CADILLAC...LAKE CITY...HOUGHTON LAKE...WEST BRANCH...
TAWAS CITY...GLADWIN...STANDISH
353 PM EST SUN NOV 13 2005

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST
TONIGHT...

A HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT.

EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH...WITH DAMAGING GUSTS
AROUND 60 MPH AS WINDS SWING TOWARD THE WEST AND NORTHWEST THIS
EVENING.

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS
EXPECTED. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH OR GUSTS OF
58 MPH OR MORE CAN LEAD TO PROPERTY DAMAGE AND MAKE DRIVING A
HIGH PROFILE VEHICLE DIFFICULT.

HIGH WAVES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO BE GENERATED ON LAKE MICHIGAN BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...LIKELY EXCEEDING 15 FEET. PERSONS SHOULD STAY
OFF PIERS AND BREAKWATERS AS HIGH WAVES WILL FLOOD THESE
STRUCTURES AND MAKE THEM EXTREMELY DANGEROUS.

$$

000 
WWUS73 KAPX 140355
NPWAPX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1055 PM EST SUN NOV 13 2005

...HIGH WIND WARNING IS CANCELLED...

MIZ008-015>036-041-042-140500-
/O.CAN.KAPX.HW.W.0002.000000T0000Z-051114T0500Z/
CHIPPEWA-MACKINAC-EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-CHARLEVOIX-
LEELANAU-ANTRIM-OTSEGO-MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-
KALKASKA-CRAWFORD-OSCODA-ALCONA-MANISTEE-WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE-
ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-IOSCO-GLADWIN-ARENAC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SAULT STE. MARIE...ST. IGNACE...
PETOSKEY...CHEBOYGAN...ROGERS CITY...CHARLEVOIX...NORTHPORT...
MANCELONA...GAYLORD...ATLANTA...ALPENA...FRANKFORT...
TRAVERSE CITY...KALKASKA...GRAYLING...MIO...HARRISVILLE...
MANISTEE...CADILLAC...LAKE CITY...HOUGHTON LAKE...WEST BRANCH...
TAWAS CITY...GLADWIN...STANDISH
1055 PM EST SUN NOV 13 2005

...HIGH WIND WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS CANCELLED THE HIGH
WIND WARNING. WEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH WILL 
DIMINISH TO 15 TO 25 MPH OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE THE HIGH WIND
WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

$$

SULLIVAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
330 AM EST SAT NOV 12 2005

...HIGH IMPACT WIND EVENT POSSIBLE SUNDAY...

.DISCUSSION...EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...FORECAST AREA WAS LOCATED
WITHIN S-SW FLOW/WARM ADVECTION REGIME BETWEEN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE SE US...AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE
PLAINS. ALOFT...LONGWAVE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED FROM HUDSON
BAY...THROUGH THE CENTRAL LAKES...SOUTH THE THE GULF OF MEXICO...
WHILE UPPER LOWS WERE PUSHING EAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
THE PACIFIC NW.

FORECAST ATTENTION FOCUSES ON IMPACT OF STRONG SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY
ON THE POTENTIAL FOR A HIGH IMPACT WIND EVENT...TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT.

BEFORE INCLEMENT WEATHER COMMENCES TONIGHT...EXPECT A FINAL
UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY TODAY...IN ADVANCE OF DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE PLAINS. PER 1000-850 MB THICKNESS FORECAST AN UPSTREAM
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AFTERNOON....RECORD HIGHS AT APN (63F)...HTL
(61F) AND GLR (61F)...ALL ESTABLISHED IN 1964...WILL BE CHALLENGED
OR ECLIPSED THIS AFTERNOON. THE RECORD HIGH AT ANJ (61F) COULD BE
ALSO BE CHALLENGED...BUT S/SE FLOW OVER NORTHERN LAKE HURON AND
PERSISTENCE OF MORNING STRATUS/FOG MAY LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES
THERE. THE RECORD HIGH AT TRAVERSE CITY...69F...WILL PROBABLY
SURVIVE...AS UPSTREAM HIGHS IN SIMILAR REGIME FRIDAY DO NOT FAVOR
TEMPS QUITE THAT WARM TODAY.

TONIGHT...WARM CONVEYOR BELT WILL PUSH NORTH INTO THE FORECAST
AREA...AS DEEP LAYER ASCENT SPREADS INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF A
PHASING/AMPLIFYING UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ONGOING CATEGORICAL POPS ARE STILL ON
TRACK...ALTHOUGH PER 0Z GUIDANCE EFFECTED MINOR TIMING ADJUSTMENTS
(DELAYED ONSET OF HIGH POPS UNTIL AFTER 9 PM THIS EVENING...THEN
LOWERED POPS LATE ACROSS WESTERN CHIPPEWA/MACKINAC COUNTIES LATE
TONIGHT AS THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT PUSHES EAST). MEANWHILE...ELEVATED
CAPES ARE LACKING OVERNIGHT...BUT DEEP LAYER ASCENT...700-500 MB
LAPSE RATES AROUND 6 C/KM AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR EXCEEDING 40 KNOTS
MAY MAINTAIN REMNANTS OF ANY STRONG CONVECTION THAT FIRES UPSTREAM
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...THUS A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS IS STILL
JUSTIFIED ALL AREAS TONIGHT.

THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
AND POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
EVENING. AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING SYSTEM TONIGHT...A TIGHTENING
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND RAPID PRESSURE FALLS FOCUSED N/NW OF
THE FORECAST AREA WILL DRIVE STRENGTHENING S TO SE SURFACE WINDS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SINCE WINDS WILL BE DRIVEN BY PRESSURE
GRADIENT/ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT...WITH 50+ KNOT WINDS ALOFT NOT
TRANSFERRING TO SURFACE WITHIN STABLE ENVIRONMENT...OVERNIGHT WINDS
SHOULD AVERAGE 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35-40 MPH...WITH
GALES COMMON ACROSS NEARSHORE AREAS. HOWEVER...IF THE SURFACE LOW
DEEPENS MORE EXPLOSIVELY THAN FORECAST...ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS
COULD BEGIN TONIGHT.

HOWEVER...THE MAIN WIND EVENT WILL OCCUR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING.
THE SURFACE LOW...CENTERED NEAR WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR 12Z SUNDAY...
WILL DRIVE A STRONG SURFACE FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
MORNING. IN THE POST FROPA COLD ADVECTION REGIME...MODEL SOUNDINGS
DEPICT A DEVELOPING MIXED LAYER TAPPING INTO 50-70 KNOT SW WINDS IN
THE 950-850 MB LAYER...WITH EFFICIENT TRANSFER OF MOMENTUM ALOFT
AIDED BY STRONG ISENTROPIC DESCENT...WHILE ISALLOBARIC ENHANCEMENT
DUE TO STRONG POST FROPA PRESSURE RISES APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS THE
REGION. THEN...EVEN AS A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH THE
REGION LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY EVENING...FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT THE
MIXED LAYER STILL TAPPING INTO 50-65 KNOT 950/850 MB W-WNW WINDS
THROUGH THE EVENING. THESE FACTORS MAY COMBINE TO PRODUCE DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 60 MPH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AND PER AREA
CONSENSUS ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR ALL COUNTIES FOR SUNDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING....AND ISSUED STORM WARNINGS FOR ALL
NEARSHORE AREAS (EXCEPT FOR NEARSHORE ZONES SOUTH OF PRESQUE ISLE
LIGHT...WHERE CONFIDENCE IN STORM FORCE GUSTS IS NOT QUITE AS HIGH
AS FOR OTHER AREAS (WILL ISSUE A GALE WARNING THERE FOR NOW...BUT
LATER SHIFTS MAY OPT TO UPGRADE IN LATER PACKAGES) FOR THE SAME
PERIOD.

MEANWHILE...IN WAKE OF COLD FROPA...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND COLD
ADVECTION ENHANCING OVER LAKE INSTABILITY SHOULD PROMOTE SCATTERED
LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS SUNDAY...THEN AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES FALL
INTO THE -4C TO -7C RANGE SUNDAY NIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL MIX WITH OR
CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY INLAND. HOWEVER...BECAUSE VERY
DRY AIR (900-700 MEAN RH 15-25%) WILL SWEEP INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...SNOW ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN LIMITED...LESS
THAN ONE INCH EVEN IN FAVORED WNW FLOW AREAS INLAND.

AFTER A SHORTWAVE RIDGE PROVIDES A BRIEF RESPITE MONDAY...THE NEXT
UPPER/SURFACE LOWS WILL PUSH SE TOWARD THE LAKES/OHIO VALLEY MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE A COMPLEX SYSTEM...AND BECAUSE THE
SYSTEM WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION BEFORE WARM AIR HAS A CHANCE TO
PUSH BACK INTO THE LAKES...PRECIP TYPE ISSUES TO ARISE...AND
ACCUMULATING SNOW COULD OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY ACROSS
INLAND NORTHERN LOWER MI AND ACROSS THE EASTERN UP. THEN...AS THIS
SYSTEM DEEPENS...STRONG WINDS COULD ONCE AGAIN IMPACT THE REGION
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND THE SYSTEM MAY PULL THE THE COLDEST
AIR THUS FAR THIS SEASON (850 MB TEMPS AROUND -12C) INTO THE
REGION...SUPPORTING SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN FAVORED WNW TO
NW FLOW AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND PERHAPS INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE ONGOING FORECAST COVERS THIS GENERAL SCENARIO
REASONABLY WELL...WITH DETAILS YET TO BE DETERMINED...AND
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE NOT JUSTIFIED IN THIS PACKAGE.

ROWLEY

.APX...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...HIGH WIND WATCH...SUNDAY AND
        SUNDAY EVENING...MIZ008-015>036-041-042.
   STORM WARNING...SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING...LSZ321-322-LMZ323-341-
        342-344-345-LHZ345>347.
   GALE WARNING...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...LHZ349-349.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
459 PM EST FRI NOV 11 2005

MIZ008-015>036-041-042-LSZ321-322-LMZ323-341-342-344-345-
LHZ345>349-121100-
ALCONA-ALPENA-ANTRIM-ARENAC-BENZIE-CHARLEVOIX-CHEBOYGAN-CHIPPEWA-
CRAWFORD-EMMET-GLADWIN-GRAND TRAVERSE-IOSCO-KALKASKA-LEELANAU-
MACKINAC-MANISTEE-MISSAUKEE-MONTMORENCY-OGEMAW-OSCODA-OTSEGO-
PRESQUE ISLE-ROSCOMMON-WEXFORD...INCLUDING THE ADJACENT WATERS WITHIN
FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE ON LAKE MICHIGAN...LAKE HURON...AND
LAKE SUPERIOR
459 PM EST FRI NOV 11 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN LOWER AND EASTERN
UPPER MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT NORTHERN MICHIGAN SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN SATURDAY NIGHT....BUT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED. ALSO...STRONG WINDS MAY IMPACT THE REGION...INCLUDING
NEARSHORE WATERS SURROUNDING NORTHERN MICHIGAN...SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER PERIOD OF
STRONG WINDS AND ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS PRONE TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS...TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING URL:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GAYLORD (ALL LOWER CASE)

ROWLEY/MJP