Blizzard Warning 1, NWS Gaylord, MI

000 
WWUS43 KAPX 232107
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
407 PM EST WED NOV 23 2005

...SNOW AND WIND CREATING DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS FOR THE
HOLIDAY...

.THERE WILL BE A BRIEF LULL IN THE SNOW EARLY THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...AS MUCH COLDER AIR SURGES INTO THE REGION...ACCUMULATING
SNOW WILL REDEVELOP IN EASTERN UPPER AND NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
BY LATE THIS EVENING. THIS SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES IN THE
SNOWBELT REGIONS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDY CONDITIONS
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WILL PRODUCE CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW...WITH BLIZZARD AND NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN
HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS.

TRAVEL WILL BE NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE IN THE SNOWBELT REGIONS LATE
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

MIZ019>021-241100-
/O.CON.KAPX.BZ.W.0001.051123T2300Z-051124T2300Z/
/O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0002.051124T2300Z-051125T1100Z/
CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHARLEVOIX...NORTHPORT...MANCELONA
407 PM EST WED NOV 23 2005

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY...
...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THURSDAY TO
6 AM EST FRIDAY...

HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL REDEVELOP BY LATE THIS EVENING...AND
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS WILL EXCEED A FOOT IN
THE PRIME SNOWBELT REGIONS AROUND EAST JORDAN...BELLAIRE AND
MANCELONA. SEVEN TO ELEVEN INCHES OF ACCUMULATION CAN BE EXPECTED
IN LEELANAU COUNTY. IN ADDITION...NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 35
MPH... WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH...WILL SCREAM IN OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN.
VISIBILITIES WILL FREQUENTLY BE REDUCED TO ZERO IN BLINDING SNOW.
SNOW DRIFTS WILL BE SEVERAL FEET DEEP. ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...THOUGH THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH.

EXPECT TRAVEL TO BE NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS
AND POOR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WHITEOUT
CONDITIONS...MAKING TRAVEL EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. DO NOT TRAVEL. IF
YOU MUST...HAVE A WINTER SURVIVAL KIT WITH YOU. IF YOU GET
STRANDED...STAY WITH YOUR VEHICLE.

$$

MIZ016>018-022-023-025>029-031>034-241100-
/O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0002.051123T2300Z-051125T1100Z/
EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-OTSEGO-MONTMORENCY-BENZIE-
GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-CRAWFORD-OSCODA-MANISTEE-WEXFORD-
MISSAUKEE-ROSCOMMON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PETOSKEY...CHEBOYGAN...ROGERS CITY...
GAYLORD...ATLANTA...FRANKFORT...TRAVERSE CITY...KALKASKA...
GRAYLING...MIO...MANISTEE...CADILLAC...LAKE CITY...HOUGHTON LAKE
407 PM EST WED NOV 23 2005

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY...

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL REDEVELOP BY LATE THIS EVENING...AND
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...
ACCUMULATIONS COULD EXCEED A FOOT IN THE PRIME SNOWBELT REGIONS
FROM KALKASKA TO GAYLORD AND GRAYLING...WITH 5 TO 10 INCHES IN
MUCH OF THE REST OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. SEVERAL MORE INCHES
OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY WEST OF M-66.
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PRODUCE CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND
DRIFTING OF SNOW...WITH NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER
LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED OR
OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL
VERY HAZARDOUS.

$$

MIZ008-015-241100-
/O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0002.051123T2300Z-051124T2300Z/
CHIPPEWA-MACKINAC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SAULT STE. MARIE...ST. IGNACE
407 PM EST WED NOV 23 2005

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST
THURSDAY...

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL REDEVELOP BY LATE THIS EVENING...AND
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY MORNING...BEFORE DIMINISHING DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE WELL WEST OF I-75...WHERE 5
TO 9 INCHES OF SNOW WILL FALL BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PRODUCE CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF
SNOW...WITH NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT
SNOW BANDS.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED OR
OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL
VERY HAZARDOUS.

$$

MIZ024-030-035-036-041-042-241100-
/O.CON.KAPX.SB.Y.0001.051123T2300Z-051124T2300Z/
ALPENA-ALCONA-OGEMAW-IOSCO-GLADWIN-ARENAC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALPENA...HARRISVILLE...WEST BRANCH...
TAWAS CITY...GLADWIN...STANDISH
407 PM EST WED NOV 23 2005

...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM
EST THURSDAY...

LIGHT SNOW WILL GIVE WAY TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT...WITH
3 TO 6 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION EXPECTED BY LATE THURSDAY. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH TOWARD MIDNIGHT... AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY...PRODUCING CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

A SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY MEANS THAT VISIBILITIES WILL BE
LIMITED DUE TO A COMBINATION OF FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW. USE
CAUTION WHEN TRAVELING...ESPECIALLY IN OPEN AREAS.

$$

JZ

000 
WWUS43 KAPX 240931
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
431 AM EST THU NOV 24 2005

...SNOW AND WIND CREATING DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS FOR THE
HOLIDAY...

.MUCH COLDER AIR HAS SURGED INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN AND
ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS UNDERWAY. THIS SNOW WILL BE
HEAVY AT TIMES IN THE SNOWBELT REGIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDY
CONDITIONS TODAY WILL PRODUCE CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING
SNOW...WITH BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT TIMES IN THE HEAVIER LAKE
EFFECT SNOW BANDS.

TRAVEL WILL BE NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE IN THE SNOWBELT REGIONS TODAY

MIZ026-242300-
/O.EXA.KAPX.BZ.W.0001.000000T0000Z-051124T2300Z/
/O.EXT.KAPX.WS.W.0002.051124T2300Z-051125T1100Z/
GRAND TRAVERSE-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...TRAVERSE CITY
431 AM EST THU NOV 24 2005

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...
...WINTER STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO
6 AM EST FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON. THE
WINTER STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO
6 AM EST FRIDAY. 

HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM 9 TO 13 INCHES. IN ADDITION...
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH WILL BE
COMMON...PARTICULARITY THIS MORNING CLOSER TO GRAND TRAVERSE BAY.
HERE...VISIBILITIES WILL FREQUENTLY BE REDUCED TO ZERO IN BLINDING
SNOW...AND SNOW DRIFTS WILL BE SEVERAL FEET DEEP. EVEN THOUGH THE
ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT...THE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH.

EXPECT TRAVEL TO BE NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TODAY.

A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS
AND POOR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WHITEOUT
CONDITIONS...MAKING TRAVEL EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. DO NOT TRAVEL. IF
YOU MUST...HAVE A WINTER SURVIVAL KIT WITH YOU. IF YOU GET
STRANDED...STAY WITH YOUR VEHICLE.

$$

MIZ019>021-242300-
/O.CON.KAPX.BZ.W.0001.000000T0000Z-051124T2300Z/
/O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0002.051124T2300Z-051125T1100Z/
CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHARLEVOIX...NORTHPORT...MANCELONA
431 AM EST THU NOV 24 2005

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...
...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING
TO 6 AM EST FRIDAY...

A BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON. A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM
THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST FRIDAY. 

HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
ACCUMULATIONS WILL EXCEED A FOOT IN THE PRIME SNOWBELT REGIONS
AROUND EAST JORDAN...BELLAIRE AND MANCELONA. 8 TO 12 INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION CAN BE EXPECTED IN LEELANAU COUNTY. IN ADDITION...
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH... WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH...WILL
SCREAM IN OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN. HERE...VISIBILITIES WILL
FREQUENTLY BE REDUCED TO ZERO IN BLINDING SNOW...AND SNOW DRIFTS
WILL BE SEVERAL FEET DEEP. EVEN THOUGH THE ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT...THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH.

EXPECT TRAVEL TO BE NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TODAY.

A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS
AND POOR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WHITEOUT
CONDITIONS...MAKING TRAVEL EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. DO NOT TRAVEL. IF
YOU MUST...HAVE A WINTER SURVIVAL KIT WITH YOU. IF YOU GET
STRANDED...STAY WITH YOUR VEHICLE.

$$

MIZ016>018-022-023-025-027>029-031>034-242345-
/O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-051125T1100Z/
EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-OTSEGO-MONTMORENCY-BENZIE-KALKASKA-
CRAWFORD-OSCODA-MANISTEE-WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE-ROSCOMMON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PETOSKEY...CHEBOYGAN...ROGERS CITY...
GAYLORD...ATLANTA...FRANKFORT...KALKASKA...GRAYLING...MIO...
MANISTEE...CADILLAC...LAKE CITY...HOUGHTON LAKE
431 AM EST THU NOV 24 2005

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY...

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS COULD
EXCEED A FOOT IN THE PRIME SNOWBELT REGIONS FROM KALKASKA TO
GAYLORD AND GRAYLING...WITH 5 TO 10 INCHES IN MUCH OF THE REST OF
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PRODUCE
CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW TODAY...WITH NEAR
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS.

TRAVEL WILL BE EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TODAY. 

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED OR
OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL
VERY HAZARDOUS.

$$

MIZ008-015-242300-
/O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-051124T2300Z/
CHIPPEWA-MACKINAC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SAULT STE. MARIE...ST. IGNACE
431 AM EST THU NOV 24 2005

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT...MAINLY WEST OF
I-75 WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL. HERE...ACCUMULATIONS WILL
RANGE FROM 3 TO 7 INCHES. IN ADDITION...STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL PRODUCE CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW. NEAR
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT
SNOW BANDS...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF US-123.

TRAVEL WILL BE EXTREMELY HAZARDOUS ALONG AND WEST OF I-75 TODAY.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED OR
OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL
VERY HAZARDOUS.

$$

MIZ024-030-035-036-041-042-242300-
/O.CON.KAPX.SB.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-051124T2300Z/
ALPENA-ALCONA-OGEMAW-IOSCO-GLADWIN-ARENAC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALPENA...HARRISVILLE...WEST BRANCH...
TAWAS CITY...GLADWIN...STANDISH
431 AM EST THU NOV 24 2005

...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM
EST THIS AFTERNOON...

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TODAY RESULTING IN 3
TO 6 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION. IN ADDITION...STRONG AND GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING
SNOW. 

A SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY MEANS THAT VISIBILITIES WILL BE
LIMITED DUE TO A COMBINATION OF FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW. USE
CAUTION WHEN TRAVELING...ESPECIALLY IN OPEN AREAS.

$$

000 
WWUS43 KAPX 241613
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1113 AM EST THU NOV 24 2005

...SNOW AND WIND CREATING DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS FOR THE
HOLIDAY...

.MUCH COLDER AIR HAS SURGED INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN AND
ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS UNDERWAY. THIS SNOW WILL BE
HEAVY AT TIMES IN THE SNOWBELT REGIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDY
CONDITIONS TODAY WILL PRODUCE CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING
SNOW...WITH BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT TIMES IN THE HEAVIER LAKE
EFFECT SNOW BANDS.

TRAVEL WILL BE NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE IN THE SNOWBELT REGIONS TODAY.

MIZ026-242300-
/O.CAN.KAPX.BZ.W.0001.000000T0000Z-051124T2300Z/
/O.EXT.KAPX.WS.W.0002.051124T1613Z-051125T1100Z/
GRAND TRAVERSE-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...TRAVERSE CITY
1113 AM EST THU NOV 24 2005

...BLIZZARD WARNING IS CANCELLED...
...WINTER STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY...

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE...WITH 2 TO 5 INCH
ACCUMULATIONS TODAY...AND ANOTHER 2 TO 5 INCHES TONIGHT. NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH...WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 35 MPH...WILLPRODUCE
VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES IN BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW. WIND CHILLS WILL REMAIN FROM ZERO TO 10 BELOW ZERO.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED OR
OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL
VERY HAZARDOUS.

$$

MIZ035-242300-
/O.UPG.KAPX.SB.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-051124T2300Z/
/O.EXA.KAPX.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-051125T1100Z/
OGEMAW-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...WEST BRANCH
1113 AM EST THU NOV 24 2005

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE...WITH 2 TO 5 INCH
ACCUMULATIONS TODAY...AND ANOTHER 2 TO 4 INCHES TONIGHT.
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH...WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 35 MPH...
WILL PRODUCE VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES IN
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. WIND CHILLS WILL REMAIN FROM ZERO TO 10
BELOW ZERO.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED OR
OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL
VERY HAZARDOUS.

$$

MIZ019>021-242300-
/O.CON.KAPX.BZ.W.0001.000000T0000Z-051124T2300Z/
/O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0002.051124T2300Z-051125T1100Z/
CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHARLEVOIX...NORTHPORT...MANCELONA
1113 AM EST THU NOV 24 2005

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...
...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING
TO 6 AM EST FRIDAY...

HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
ACCUMULATIONS WILL APPROACH OR EXCEED A FOOT IN THE PRIME SNOWBELT
REGIONS AROUND EAST JORDAN...BELLAIRE AND MANCELONA. 5 TO 10 INCHES
OF ACCUMULATION CAN BE EXPECTED IN LEELANAU COUNTY. IN ADDITION...
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH... WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH...WILL
SCREAM IN OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN. VISIBILITIES WILL FREQUENTLY BE
REDUCED TO ZERO IN BLINDING SNOW...AND SNOW DRIFTS WILL BE SEVERAL
FEET DEEP. THE ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT...THOUGH THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH.

EXPECT TRAVEL TO BE NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TODAY.

A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS
AND POOR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WHITEOUT
CONDITIONS...MAKING TRAVEL EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. DO NOT TRAVEL. IF
YOU MUST...HAVE A WINTER SURVIVAL KIT WITH YOU. IF YOU GET
STRANDED...STAY WITH YOUR VEHICLE.

$$

MIZ016>018-022-023-025-027>029-031>034-242300-
/O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-051125T1100Z/
EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-OTSEGO-MONTMORENCY-BENZIE-KALKASKA-
CRAWFORD-OSCODA-MANISTEE-WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE-ROSCOMMON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PETOSKEY...CHEBOYGAN...ROGERS CITY...
GAYLORD...ATLANTA...FRANKFORT...KALKASKA...GRAYLING...MIO...
MANISTEE...CADILLAC...LAKE CITY...HOUGHTON LAKE
1113 AM EST THU NOV 24 2005

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY...

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE...WITH 2 TO 6 INCH
ACCUMULATIONS TODAY...AND ANOTHER 2 TO 5 INCHES TONIGHT.
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH...WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 40 MPH...
WILL PRODUCE VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES IN
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. WIND CHILLS WILL REMAIN FROM ZERO TO 10
BELOW ZERO.

TRAVEL WILL BE EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TODAY.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED OR
OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL
VERY HAZARDOUS.

$$

MIZ008-015-242300-
/O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-051124T2300Z/
CHIPPEWA-MACKINAC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SAULT STE. MARIE...ST. IGNACE
1113 AM EST THU NOV 24 2005

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT...MAINLY WEST OF
I-75 WHERE ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM 3 TO 7 INCHES. IN
ADDITION...STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PRODUCE CONSIDERABLE
BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW...WITH VISIBILITIES REDUCED TO A
QUARTER MILE AT TIMES. WIND CHILLS WILL HOVER FROM 5 TO 15 BELOW
ZERO.

TRAVEL WILL BE EXTREMELY HAZARDOUS ALONG AND WEST OF I-75 TODAY.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED OR
OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL
VERY HAZARDOUS.

$$

MIZ024-030-036-041-042-242300-
/O.CON.KAPX.SB.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-051124T2300Z/
ALPENA-ALCONA-IOSCO-GLADWIN-ARENAC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALPENA...HARRISVILLE...TAWAS CITY...
GLADWIN...STANDISH
1113 AM EST THU NOV 24 2005

...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM
EST THIS AFTERNOON...

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TODAY...WITH 1 TO
LOCALLY 4 INCHES OF DAYTIME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. NORTHWEST WINDS OF
15 TO 25 MPH...WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 35 MPH...WILL RESULT IN
CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...AND OCCASIONAL
VISIBILITIES REDUCED TO A HALF MILE. WIND CHILLS WILL REMAIN NEAR
ZERO.

A SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY MEANS THAT VISIBILITIES WILL BE
LIMITED DUE TO A COMBINATION OF FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW. USE
CAUTION WHEN TRAVELING...ESPECIALLY IN OPEN AREAS.

$$

JZ

000 
WWUS43 KAPX 242053
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
353 PM EST THU NOV 24 2005

...SNOW AND WIND CREATING DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS FOR THE
HOLIDAY...

.MUCH COLDER AIR HAS SURGED INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN AND
ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS UNDERWAY. THIS SNOW WILL BE
HEAVY AT TIMES IN THE SNOWBELT REGIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDY
CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WILL PRODUCE CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW...WITH NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT TIMES IN THE
HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS.

TRAVEL WILL BE NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE IN THE SNOWBELT REGIONS TODAY.

MIZ019>021-251100-
/O.CAN.KAPX.BZ.W.0001.000000T0000Z-051124T2300Z/
/O.EXT.KAPX.WS.W.0002.051124T2053Z-051125T1100Z/
CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHARLEVOIX...NORTHPORT...MANCELONA
353 PM EST THU NOV 24 2005

...BLIZZARD WARNING IS CANCELLED...
...WINTER STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY...

LAKE EFFECT SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT.
ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY 2 TO 5 INCHES...BUT WILL BE
LOCALLY HIGHER...ESPECIALLY IN ANTRIM COUNTY. NORTHWEST WINDS OF
15 TO 25 MPH... WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 35 MPH...WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING. VISIBILITIES WILL OCCASIONALLY BE
REDUCED TO A QUARTER MILE OR LESS IN FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED OR
OCCURRING. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS.

$$

MIZ036-041-042-242200-
/O.CAN.KAPX.SB.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-051124T2300Z/
IOSCO-GLADWIN-ARENAC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TAWAS CITY...GLADWIN...STANDISH
353 PM EST THU NOV 24 2005

...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS CANCELLED THE SNOW
AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY. ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE
EVENING...SO LESS BLOWING AND DRIFTING IS EXPECTED.

$$

MIZ008-015-251100-
/O.EXT.KAPX.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-051125T1100Z/
CHIPPEWA-MACKINAC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SAULT STE. MARIE...ST. IGNACE
353 PM EST THU NOV 24 2005

...WINTER STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY...

THE WINTER STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY. 

BANDS OF LOCALLY HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT...MAINLY WEST OF M-129 IN CHIPPEWA COUNTY...AND IN FAR
WESTERN MACKINAC COUNTY. MOST PLACES WILL SEE LIMITED
ACCUMULATIONS...BUT LOCAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TONIGHT COULD REACH 6
INCHES. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH...BUT SOME BLOWING
AND DRIFTING OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED OR
OCCURRING. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS.

$$

MIZ016>018-022-023-025>029-031>035-251100-
/O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-051125T1100Z/
EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-OTSEGO-MONTMORENCY-BENZIE-
GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-CRAWFORD-OSCODA-MANISTEE-WEXFORD-
MISSAUKEE-ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PETOSKEY...CHEBOYGAN...ROGERS CITY...
GAYLORD...ATLANTA...FRANKFORT...TRAVERSE CITY...KALKASKA...
GRAYLING...MIO...MANISTEE...CADILLAC...LAKE CITY...
HOUGHTON LAKE...WEST BRANCH
353 PM EST THU NOV 24 2005

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY...

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE. MOST PLACES IN NORTHWEST
AND NORTH CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN WILL PICK UP 2 TO 5 INCHES
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY FOR THE GAYLORD...KALKASKA...AND GRAYLING AREAS.
VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED TO A QUARTER MILE OR LESS IN THE
HEAVIER SNOW BANDS. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH...WITH A FEW
GUSTS TO 35 MPH... WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. BUT SIGNIFICANT
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL STILL OCCUR EARLY.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED OR
OCCURRING. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS.

$$

MIZ024-030-250500-
/O.EXT.KAPX.SB.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-051125T0500Z/
ALPENA-ALCONA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALPENA...HARRISVILLE
353 PM EST THU NOV 24 2005

...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT
EST TONIGHT...

THE SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL
MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT. AN ADDITIONAL ONE TO TWO INCHES OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH...BUT
WILL REMAIN GUSTY ENOUGH THIS EVENING TO PRODUCE BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW.

A SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY MEANS THAT VISIBILITIES WILL BE
LIMITED DUE TO A COMBINATION OF FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW. USE
CAUTION WHEN TRAVELING...ESPECIALLY IN OPEN AREAS.

$$

JZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1104 AM EST WED NOV 23 2005

.UPDATE...THIS UPDATE IS LOOKING AT THE MASSIVE SNOW/WIND EVENT
KICKING OFF TONIGHT. AM GOING TO TAKE THE OPPORTUNITY TO ADJUST SOME
HEADLINES...SPECIFICALLY TO UPGRADE WATCHES TO WARNINGS. ALSO NEED
TO GIVE SERIOUS CONSIDERATION TO BLIZZARD HEADLINES IN SOME SPOTS.

DON/T NEED TO REPEAT MUCH FROM THE EARLY MORNING DISCUSSION...AND
12Z NAM RUN OFFERS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SURPRISES. IT WILL BECOME
SNOWY AND WINDY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY (AT LEAST). 1000-850MB
FLOW WILL BE NNW IN EASTERN UPPER (THUS MAINLY AFFECTING AREAS WELL
WEST OF I-75)...AND NW IN NORTHERN LOWER (IMPACTING THE BIG 5).
THOSE 1000-850MB WINDS WILL BE 30-40KT...CARRYING BANDS FURTHER
INLAND THAN IS TYPICAL. THESE WINDS WILL ALSO PRODUCE SUBSTANTIAL
BLOWING AND DRIFTING...WITH 20-30MPH SUSTAINED WINDS AND HIGHER
GUSTS (ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKES). A SURFACE TROF WILL GRADUALLY
SLIDE IN FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY...VEERING WINDS A BIT AND TAKING
EASTERN UPPER OUT OF THE HEAVIER SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON.

WILL UPGRADE ALL WATCH COUNTIES TO WARNINGS...WITH ADVISORIES FROM
ALPENA SOUTHWARD TO GLADWIN/STANDISH. WILL NOT MESS WITH EARLIER
TIMING...CARRYING NORTHERN LOWER WARNINGS THRU THU NIGHT...THOUGH
PLACES EAST OF M-66 WILL PROBABLY EXIT HEAVIER SNOW THU NIGHT AS
WINDS TURN MORE NNW. THE ADVISORIES WILL RUN FOR TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY...THAT SHOULD BE GOOD ENOUGH EXCEPT MAYBE FOR APN IF SOME
HURON BANDS CAN GRAZE THE SHORELINE THERE THU NIGHT.

AND THE BLIZZARD QUESTION. AS GUIDANCE REFLECTS...WINDS WILL BE
SUBSTANTIALLY STRONGER OVER AND NEAR THE BIG LAKES THAN OVER THE
INLAND FORESTS. HAVE VERY LITTLE DOUBT THAT WIND CRITERIA WILL BE
MET IN THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES...IT/S IFFIER AS YOU HEAD INLAND
(ESPECIALLY EAST OF US-131) WHERE 35MPH GUSTS WILL BE LESS FREQUENT.
MEETING THE VSBY REQUIREMENT (1/4SM OR LESS FOR 3 HOURS) WILL BE
DIFFICULT OUTSIDE THE PRIME LES AREAS. IT WILL OCCASIONALLY BE THAT
BAD...BUT DO NOT SEE PLACES LIKE MBL OR PLN GOING THAT LOW FOR THAT
LONG. HOWEVER...I THINK THE BETTER NW FLOW COUNTIES COULD. THUS...
WILL CHANGE TO A BLIZZARD WARNING FOR TONIGHT/THURSDAY FOR
CHARLEVOIX/ANTRIM/LEELANAU. THIS WILL STILL LEAVE A WINTER STORM
WARNING UP FOR THURSDAY NIGHT FOR THOSE COUNTIES...AS THE SNOW
CONTINUES BUT THE WINDS SLACKEN. EMPHASIS FOR BLIZZ WARNING WILL BE
ON LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

WILL NOT GO WITH A BLIZZ HEADLINE FOR CHIPPEWA. HEAVIER SNOW WILL
STAY WEST OF VULNERABLE I-75 CORRIDOR...FAR WESTERN PART OF COUNTY
IS HEAVILY FORESTED AND NOT ESPECIALLY PRONE TO BLIZZ CONDITIONS. IN
ADDITION...NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL WINDS JUST A
BIT FURTHER WEST. THERE/S ALSO THE LITTLE MATTER OF LAST WEEK/S NW
FLOW LES EVENT...WHICH SOMEHOW MANAGED TO DO VERY LITTLE IN WESTERN
CHIPPEWA COUNTY.

WILL TAKE A HARDER LOOK AT THUNDERSNOW POTENTIAL LATER. IT/S PRETTY
INFREQUENT AROUND HERE...BUT THIS IS QUITE A SETUP... WITH THE NAM
NOW SHOWING LAKE-INDUCED CAPES APPROACHING 1K J/KG.

ZOLTOWSKI

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION ISSUED 1045 AM WED NOV 23...

UPDATE...WILL LET THE CURRENT FORECAST RIDE AS THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON GRIDS LOOK REASONABLE WITH THE CURRENT SITUATION.  THE
ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA LOOKED TO BE READY TO
ENHANCE OVER N LAKE MICHIGAN.  THE 88D PICKED UP SOME ENHANCEMENT,
BUT SUBSEQUENT CALLS TO THE NAUBINWAY/ENGADINE AREAS SHOWED THAT
THEY HAD ONLY PICKED UP AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF FOR THE
MORNING, WITHIN THE WHAT WE ARE EXPECTING FOR THE DAY. SO TWEAKED
THE TEMPERATURES AND THE WINDS FOR THE DAY. OTHERWISE, NO REAL
CHANGES. JSL

DISCUSSION...SFC/RUC/SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWING THAT
STRONG AND DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHEAST
CONUS. THIS FEATURE HAD BEEN BLOCKING THE SFC RIDGE OVER NRN
MICHIGAN...AND PREVENTING IT FROM MOVING EAST. IN THE MEANTIME...
RAPIDLY DEEPENING SFC LOW IS SEEN SMASHING INTO SW ONTARIO AND THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS TIGHTENED UP AHEAD OF IT. ALSO...MID AND UPPER
CLOUDS STREAMING IN AHEAD OF THIS DEEPENING LOW WERE BEGINNING TO
SPREAD IN OVER THE WANING NW SFC-H8 FLOW...AND WE SAW A BRIEF FLARE
UP IN THE FLURRIES. ACTION IS DWINDLING NOW ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN WITH
BROAD WAA SNOWS INCREASING IN COVERAGE ACROSS WESTERN WI. OVERALL
UPPER AIR PATTERN SHOWS EAST COAST UPPER TROUGHING ABOUT TO BE
RE-ENFORCED WITH POLAR VORTEX DROPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH
UPPER RIDGING HOLDING (TRYING TO EDGE EASTWARD) ACROSS THE ROCKIES.
THE UPPER TROUGHING AND COLD AIR WILL HOLD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH SATURDAY...RESULTING IN LAKE EFFECT SNOWS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS CERTAINLY THE IMPACT OF SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS AND WIND WITH THE DEEPENING SFC LOW ACROSS SW ONTARIO. THIS
ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING PERSONS TRAVELING OVER THE THANKSGIVING
HOLIDAY.

TODAY...LEAD SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH FAR WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR...WILL DROP THROUGH SRN LAKE MICHIGAN TODAY. SFC LOW
DEEPENS FURTHER AND SETTLES INTO FAR EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
ISENTROPIC ASCENT/WAA SNOWS WILL SPREAD INTO NRN MICHIGAN THROUGH
THE MORNING...MAXIMIZED LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. CDPS
DROP BELOW 10MB WITH MIXING RATIOS OF 2 TO 2.5 G/KG...AND WITH WHAT
LOOKS TO BE A SOLID 6 HOURS OF SNOWFALL...2 TO 4 INCHES...AS
FORECAST LOOKS RATHER GOOD. WILL HAVE TO SERIOUSLY WATCH THE
1000-850MB WINDS TODAY...AS MODELS ARE HINTING AT (MAINLY THE GFS) A
SLIGHT BIT OF WESTERLY FOR A PERIOD OF TIME TODAY...AND WITH
SUFFICIENT DELTA TS (EVEN THOUGH WE ARE WARMING UP...TO -5C ACROSS
THE FAR SW CWA)...THERE MAY BE SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT IN THE SW FLOW
REGIMES. I DID INCREASE SNOW AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY IN THESE AREAS...BUT
OVERALL...NO REAL SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE. IF THERE WERE LOW
END SNOW ADVISORY CRITERIA MET...ANY HEADLINES GET TRUMPED WITH THE
MAIN ACTION WHICH ARRIVES TONIGHT AND PERSISTS THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. FINALLY FOR TODAY...WATER TEMPS REMAIN IN THE MID-UPPER 40S
AND SFC BASED MELTING LAYER INCREASES TO 1500-1700 FEET OVER THE SW
NEARSHORE WATERS. DONT KNOW IF I SEE THINGS CHANGING OVER TO ALL
RAIN...BUT MIXING WITH RAIN THIS AFTERNOON IS MORE THAN PLAUSIBLE
FROM MANISTEE TO LEELANAU AND FOR AREAS JUST SLIGHTLY INLAND.

TONIGHT...ISENTROPIC ASCENT SHIFTS EAST OF NRN MICHIGAN IN THE
EVENING ALTHOUGH H8-H5 MOISTURE GREATER THAN 65% REMAINS ACROSS THE
NE CWA WITH OUTLANDISHLY STRONG DEEP LAYER (H8-H5) -DIVQ AT LEAST IN
THE EVENING AND SNOWS WILL PERSIST FOR AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD IN
THE EVENING. THE SFC LOW DROPS INTO LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO AND
DEEPENS TO 980MB WHILE MAIN SHORTWAVE/POLAR VORTEX DROPS IN RIGHT ON
TOP OF THE STRAITS/TIP OF THE MITT REGION...AS 170KT JET DIVES IN
ACROSS WISCONSIN. A BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR AND STRONG WNW/NW WINDS WILL
ARRIVE IN THE WESTERN CWA DURING MID EVENING...THEN SPREAD ACROSS
THE FAR EASTERN CWA AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. H8 TEMPS WILL
FALL TO NEAR -20C BY DAYBREAK THANKSGIVING MORNING. EVEN THOUGH DEEP
SYNOPTIC MOISTURE WILL BE SLIDING EAST WITH THE FRONT...SUCH COLD
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID LEVELS (-30C TO -35C) RESULTS IN
TREMENDOUSLY STEEP LAPSE RATES...WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS AS HIGH AS
10KFT. THUS...DEEP MOISTURE RETURNS AS A RESULT OF DEEP CONVECTION
OVER THE LAKES. IF THERE EVER WERE A CHANCE FOR THUNDER IN A WINTER
OVER-LAKE SENSE...THIS SEEMS LIKE THE ONE. NAM STILL PROGGS
500-750J/KG OF SBCAPE OVER THE WATER...MAINLY OVER LAKE MICHIGAN.
WILL ALLOW DAY CREW TO ASSESS ONE MORE TIME...BUT THE WAY THINGS ARE
GOING...ADDING THUNDER TO THE FORECAST MAY BE THE THING TO DO.

AS FAR AS SNOW AMOUNTS GO...OUTSIDE OF A BRIEF LULL IN THE PRECIP
MORE SO ACROSS THE SW CWA IN THE EARLY EVENING...THE SNOW WILL GET
CRANKED UP. EARLIER CREW HAD AN EXCELLENT POINT IN THAT IT MAY TAKE
SOME TIME TO SET UP THE LES...WHICH WILL HAMPER THE EVENING TOTALS.
THE SNOW WILL ARRIVE IN EARNEST AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS NRN LOWER STILL
LOOKS LOCKED INTO A 310-320 FLOW. IN EASTERN UPPER...SLIGHTLY MORE
NORTH AND INTO A 330 FLOW. THIS HAS NOT CHANGED ALL THAT MUCH.
THEREFORE...SNOW AMOUNTS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WILL HOLD IN THIS
PACKAGE...WITH EASTERN UPPER SEEING THE HIGHEST ACCUMS WEST OF
I-75...WITH 3-5 INCHES NEAR WHITEFISH/PARADISE. SOMETHING LIKE 4-6
STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR THE BIG 5 COUNTIES IN NORTHERN LOWER...AND TO
DWINDLING TO 2 ALONG W BRANCH TO APN CORRIDOR...AND LESS IN THE FAR
SE.

THURSDAY...WHILE LES WILL STILL BE GOING STRONG...THERE WILL BE A
DISRUPTION TO THE SNOWFALL THROUGH THE DAY WITH A THERMAL TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN. BOTH NAM AND GFS ARE ON THE SAME PAGE
WITH THIS FEATURE BRINGING IT ACROSS EASTERN UPPER IN THE MID TO
LATE MORNING...AND THEN THROUGH NRN MICHIGAN BY LATE AFTERNOON. LOOK
FOR INCREASED SNOWFALL RATES IN LARGER PATCHES/AREAS WITH THIS
FEATURE. CYCLONIC FLOW IS BETTER (AS WOULD BE EXPECTED WITH A
FEATURE SUCH AS THIS)...AND BEHIND THE TROUGH...WINDS STILL LOOK TO
BACK MORE NORTHERLY IN EASTERN UPPER AND THE TIP OF THE MITT...BUT
STAY NW ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NRN LOWER. CURRENT GRIDS HAVE A GOOD
HANDLE ON THE SITUATION AND ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS...SUCH AS
DECREASING TO SNOWFALL ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF CHIP/MACK COUNTIES
FOR THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH INVERSION HEIGHTS FALL TO 4500-5000 FT
IN THE AFTERNOON UP IN EASTERN UPPER...INCREASED MOISTURE THROUGH
500MB SHOULD STILL ALLOW FOR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES TO GET UP TO 5
INCHES OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION. FOR NRN LOWER...IT IS STARTING TO
LOOK LIKE A TON OF SNOW (IF WIND FIELDS REMAIN UNCHANGED) FOR THE
BIG 5...WITH ANOTHER 7-8 INCHES OR SO.

THURSDAY NIGHT...THERMAL TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE SRN CWA IN THE
EVENING WITH HEAVIEST SNOWS LIKELY IN THIS REGION. WE START TO LOSE
THE BETTER CYCLONIC FLOW WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH...BUT WINDS
STAY RATHER NW/NNW ALL NIGHT...AND HEAVIEST SNOWS/DOMINANT BANDS
LOOK TO LINE UP JUST SOUTH OF THE BIG 5...MAYBE A TAD NORTH OF WHERE
CURRENT GRIDS SUGGEST HEAVIEST SNOWS WILL FALL (IN THE 330-340
BELTS). WITH THE CORE OF COLDEST AIR ALOFT SLIDING SE OF THE
AREA...INVERSION HEIGHTS FALL...BUT IT WILL STILL BE SNOWING. EXPECT
A DECREASING TREND IN THE SNOWFALL...BUT ANOTHER 3-5 INCHES OF SNOW
REMAIN POSSIBLE.

ALL-IN-ALL...AN IMPRESSIVE SET UP FOR CONTINUAL SNOW WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR VERY HIGH ACCUMULATIONS...TOTALING OVER A FOOT IN THE
BIG 5...WITH SOME AREAS LIKELY SEEING EVEN HIGHER THAN THAT. THE
EXTREME OVER WATER INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN DEEP MIXING AND PLENTY
OF WIND. STRONGEST CORE OF WINDS COMING IN AT 850MB ARE ON THE ORDER
OF 45-50KTS BY THE GFS (STILL FAVORED MODEL...NAM AS HIGH AS
55KTS)...AND A BIT FURTHER SOUTH...ACROSS GRAND TRAVERSE BAY AND
SOUTHWARD. SHOULD SEE GUSTS AT VARIOUS TIMES REACHING 50MPH OVER AND
JUST DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN AS THESE WINDS COME IN LATE TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW MORNING...ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THROUGH MOST OF
TONIGHT ANYWAYS. WILL GO FOR WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR ALL AREAS
DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN...AS TREMENDOUS BLOWING SNOW AND WINDS
WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES. WOULD THINK THAT
A QUICK LOOK AT THE 12Z MODELS TOMORROW MORNING COULD RESULT IN MANY
OTHER AREAS OF THE WATCH BEING UPGRADED...AS LONG AS THE WIND FIELDS
LOOK THE SAME. PLEASE BE ADVISED...THAT NO MATTER WHAT HEADLINES ARE
IN EFFECT...TRAVEL WILL BE VERY HAZARDOUS TONIGHT AND THANKSGIVING
DAY...PARTICULARLY ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 75...AND THAT THERE
DOES LOOK TO BE WHITE OUT CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AT TIMES TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. IT IS JUST A MATTER OF HOW LONG THESE CONDITIONS WILL
LAST...AND TO SOME EXTENT...WHERE THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL RESIDE.

MARINE...WILL KEEP GALES IN ALL NEARSHORE ZONES. THOUGHT ABOUT STORM
WARNINGS FOR GRAND TRAVERSE SOUTHWARD...BUT WOULD WANT TO SEE
ANOTHER RUN OF THE WIND FORECAST TO SEE IF THIS AREA STILL LOOKS TO
BE PINNED FOR THE STRONGEST WINDS. PLUS...THE STRONGEST OF WIND DOES
NOT ARRIVE UNTIL VERY LATE TONIGHT AND THANKSGIVING MORNING.

SMD

LONGER TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED)...UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO LIFT OUT OF THE EAST COAST FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TRACKING ACROSS THE CENTRAL US
MOVES EASTWARD. THIS WILL NOT LET US OUT OF THE WOODS AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER HUDSON BAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHEN THE
HANDLING OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BEGINS TO SHOW LARGE
DIFFERENCES. FOCUS FOR FRIDAY WILL REMAIN ON LAKE EFFECT WITH
ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...LAKE EFFECT MACHINE WILL STILL BE GOING
INTO THE DAY FRIDAY AS WINDS WILL PERSIST OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WITH
850 MB TEMPERATURES HANGING AROUND -14C (DELTA T/S BETWEEN 20C AND
24C). MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A WEAK INVERSION AROUND 800 MB (6.0 KFT
AGL) INTO FRIDAY EVENING WITH MOISTURE REACHING ALL THE WAY TO -20C
(ROUGHLY 800 MB). WITH LEVELS BELOW 800 MB FAIRLY WELL
SATURATED...LAYER RH/S FOR 850-700 MB AND 700-500 MB SHOW THERE IS
DRYING WITH HEIGHT AS THE LAYERS WILL BE AROUND 70 PCT AND 40 PCT
RESPECTIVELY. SOME FACTORS BEGIN TURNING AGAINST THE LAKE EFFECT
MACHINE FRIDAY...WITH A LACK OF QG SUPPORT AND THE GRADIENT BECOMING
VERY WEAK LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...ALLOWING THE WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT
AND THE BANDS VERY DISORGANIZED. WITH THAT IN MIND FRIDAY WILL
CONTINUE THE LAKE EFFECT BUT WILL SEE A DOWN TURN IN THE INTENSITY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE WINDS WEAKEN...ACCUMULATIONS ATTM DO NOT
APPEAR TO BE ON THE HEAVY SIDE BUT MORE IN LINE WITH MODERATE LAKE
EFFECT ACCUMULATIONS. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL SEE A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM
THE SNOW UNTIL THE NEXT SYSTEM BEARS DOWN ON THE REGION. THIS WILL
COME IN THE FORM OF A TROUGH OVERNIGHT FRIDAY WHICH WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND
OF ACCUMULATING SNOW WITH IT...HOWEVER THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE
SOUTH WITH WILL KEEP THE LAKE CONTRIBUTION TO A MINIMUM.

SATURDAY AND THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...FEW CHANGES MADE HERE
AS MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE DIFFICULTY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. CHANGES WERE MADE
TO DAYS 6 AND 7 FOR PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES TO COORDINATE
WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE TO THESE PERIODS.

MJP

&&

.APX...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
          GALE WARNING...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...
            ALL NEARSHORE WATERS EXCEPT LHZ348-349
          GALE WARNING...OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY...
            LHZ348-349
          BLIZZARD WARNING...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...
            MIZ019>021.
          WINTER STORM WARNING...THURSDAY NIGHT...
            MIZ019>021
          WINTER STORM WARNING...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...
            MIZ008-015
          WINTER STORM WARNING...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
            MIZ016>018-022-023-025>029-031>034
          SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...
            MIZ024-030-035-036-041-042.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
537 AM EST WED NOV 23 2005

MIZ008-015>036-041-042-LSZ321-322-LMZ323-341-342-344-345-
LHZ345>349-241100-
ALCONA-ALPENA-ANTRIM-ARENAC-BENZIE-CHARLEVOIX-CHEBOYGAN-CHIPPEWA-
CRAWFORD-EMMET-GLADWIN-GRAND TRAVERSE-IOSCO-KALKASKA-LEELANAU-
MACKINAC-MANISTEE-MISSAUKEE-MONTMORENCY-OGEMAW-OSCODA-OTSEGO-
PRESQUE ISLE-ROSCOMMON-WEXFORD...INCLUDING THE ADJACENT WATERS WITHIN
FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE ON LAKE MICHIGAN...LAKE HURON...AND
LAKE SUPERIOR
537 AM EST WED NOV 23 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN LOWER AND EASTERN
UPPER MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
TODAY...BRINGING WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW TO NORTHERN MICHIGAN. LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY AND SOME ROADS MAY BECOME SLICK AND SNOW
COVERED. THE SNOW WILL MIX WITH RAIN ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN
SHORELINE DURING THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY SOUTH OF GRAND TRAVERSE BAY.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND BECOME HEAVY AT
TIMES MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND STRONG WINDS WILL PRODUCE BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW WITH SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY...
POSSIBLY NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT TIMES. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ON ALL NEARSHORE WATERS. SEE ONGOING WATCHES AND MARINE
FORECASTS FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THANKSGIVING NIGHT.
THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES...AND STRONG WINDS WILL
PRODUCE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW ON THURSDAY...WITH SIGNIFICANT
REDUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY...POSSIBLY NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT
TIMES. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL PERSIST ON ALL NEARSHORE WATERS
THURSDAY. SEE ONGOING WATCHES AND MARINE FORECASTS FOR ADDITIONAL
DETAILS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS...PLEASE RELAY SNOWFALL AND COASTAL WIND REPORTS TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING URL:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GAYLORD (ALL LOWER CASE)

JK/JPB/JZ/SMD