Storm Warning 92, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 072355
CWFAER

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AST MON MAR 7 2005

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-081500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 955 MB LOW 500 NM SOUTHEAST OF COLD BAY WILL WEAKEN TO 961 MB 
AS IT MOVES TO 120 NM SOUTHEAST OF COLD BAY TUE AFTERNOON. AN
ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE NORTH GULF COAST BY TUE MORNING.
THE LOW WILL THEN WEAKEN TO 973 MB AS IT MOVES TO 160 NM EAST OF 
SAINT PAUL WED AFTERNOON. 
$$

PKZ120-081500-
AREA 2B. CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AST MON MAR 7 2005

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 50 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 24 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 45 KT BECOMING SE 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 23 FT.
RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-081500-
AREA 2B1. RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AST MON MAR 7 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-081500-
AREA 2C. PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AST MON MAR 7 2005

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
GUSTS TO 50 KT NEAR THE GULF AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS BUILDING 
TO 8 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-081500-
AREA 2C4. PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AST MON MAR 7 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS BUILDING TO 4 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-081500-
AREA 3A. BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AST MON MAR 7 2005

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND INCREASING TO 55 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 26 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 23 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 

$$

PKZ132-081500-
AREA 3B. SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AST MON MAR 7 2005

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 24 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-081500-
AREA 3C. SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AST MON MAR 7 2005

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND INCREASING TO 55 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 26 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT BECOMING SE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 13 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-081500-
AREA 4. COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AST MON MAR 7 2005

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND INCREASING TO 45 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 20 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...NE WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 22 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-081500-
AREA 4A. KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AST MON MAR 7 2005

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 7 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 081231
CWFAER

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AST TUE MAR 8 2005

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-090300-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...A 958 MB LOW 270 NM SOUTH OF CHIGNIK WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN
AND MOVE WEST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY A 978 MB LOW 650 NM SOUTHEAST OF
KODIAK WILL MOVE TO 240 NM EAST OF KODIAK THURSDAY MORNING AND
INTENSIFY TO 970 MB.


$$

PKZ120-090300-
AREA 2B. CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AST TUE MAR 8 2005

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT THIS
AFTERNOON. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-090300-
AREA 2B1. RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AST TUE MAR 8 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT.
RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-090300-
AREA 2C. PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AST TUE MAR 8 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WINDS INCREASING TO 30 KT THIS MORNING. WINDS BECOMING
SOUTHEAST 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN WITH SNOW SHOWERS.
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-090300-
AREA 2C4. PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AST TUE MAR 8 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 4 FT. RAIN AND
FOG. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SHOWERS. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-090300-
AREA 3A. BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AST TUE MAR 8 2005

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 40 WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. WINDS BECOMING SE 35 KT THIS
AFTERNOON. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-090300-
AREA 3B. SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AST TUE MAR 8 2005

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT BECOMING SOUTH 35 KT THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS 22
FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 19 FT.
RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-090300-
AREA 3C. SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AST TUE MAR 8 2005

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS 18
FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT BECOMING S AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 18 FT
SUBSIDING TO 13 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-090300-
AREA 4. COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AST TUE MAR 8 2005

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-090300-
AREA 4A. KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AST TUE MAR 8 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
200 PM AST SUN MAR 6 2005

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVELS...UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA THROUGH
THE SEWARD PENINSULA TODAY. REX BLOCKING LOW REMAINS OVER SOUTHERN
ARIZONA WHICH IS HOLDING UP THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LEVELS IN
THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE. ALEUTIAN UPPER LOW CONTINUES IN PLACE OVER
THE CENTRAL CHAIN. THROUGH THE 84 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD THE REX BLOCK
WEAKENS OVER ARIZONA AND IS KICKED INTO THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS ON WEDNESDAY THIS WILL ALLOW THE ALEUTIAN LOW TO NUDGE
EASTWARD CHANGING THE COURSE THE SYSTEMS THAT HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING IN
THE STRONG JET ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC.

SURFACE...A 970 MB LOW TO THE SOUTHEAST OF COLD BAY WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN BERING SEA
OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE AS IT DRIFTS EAST. THE
NEXT OF THE SERIES OF NORTH PACIFIC LOWS THEN BEGINS TO ENTER THE
PICTURE MONDAY MORNING AS IT CROSSES 50N AND CONTINUES TRACK NORTH
ALONG 155W. THE BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE NORTH GULF COAST AND THE
DEPTH OF THIS LOW WILL SETUP AN EVEN STRONGER GRADIENT OVER THE
KODIAK ISLAND WATERS AND GULF OF ALASKA. WILL HAVE TO WATCH SHELIKOF
AND MATANUSKA GAP WIND AREAS FOR EARLY ON TUESDAY...ALONG WITH THE
NORTH GULF COAST FOR POSSIBLE WIND WARNING CONDITIONS.  UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE BERING SEA AND WESTERN ALEUTIAN ISLAND IN
ACTIVE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

MODELS...NAM MODEL HAD SOME PROBLEMS THIS MORNING WITH INITIALIZATION
PARAMETERS AS PER NCEP DISCUSSION WILL DISREGARD 12Z NAM OUTPUT
TODAY. GFS/UKMET OUTPUT BASICALLY THE SAME FROM 00HR-72HR WILL GO
WITH GFS FOR BASIC GUIDANCE TODAY ACROSS THE TWO FORECAST DOMAINS.
THE INTERIOR WILL SEE VERY SLOW CHANGES IN THE CURRENT WEATHER
PATTERN. MOST ACTIVE AREAS WILL REMAIN ALONG THE NORTH GULF
COAST...KODIAK ISLAND...ALASKA PENINSULA AND BRISTOL BAY COAST LINE
WITH WIND ADVISORY/POSSIBLE WARNING LEVEL WINDS.  FEEL AT THIS POINT
THE PAST TWO SYSTEM THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WERE RUNNING HOT THAT
PLAYING A CONSERVATIVE APPROACH WOULD BE BEST AT THIS TIME FOR
MONDAY/S EVENT.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE...121 125 140 141 155 160 165 180 185
      ...STORM...120 130 132 138 150
      ...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY...185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

PROTON MAR 05