Storm Warning 15, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 201245
CWFAER
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AST THU JAN 20 2005

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-210300-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 982 MB LOW 200 NM S OF SITKINAK WILL DISSIPATE THU AFTERNOON. A
970 MB LOW WELL S THU NIGHT WILL DEVELOP TO STORM FORCE 967 MB 100
NM SE OF SITKINAK FRI AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL WEAKEN TO 972 MB 60
NM E OF NARROW CAPE EARLY SAT MORNING. 
$$

PKZ120-210300-
AREA 2B. CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AST THU JAN 20 2005

...STORM WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS 12
FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING E 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  
$$

PKZ121-210300-
AREA 2B1. RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AST THU JAN 20 2005

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
5 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
$$

PKZ125-210300-
AREA 2C. PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AST THU JAN 20 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT AND FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.  
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
$$

PKZ129-210300-
AREA 2C4. PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AST THU JAN 20 2005

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. SNOW.  
.TONIGHT AND FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.  
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
$$

PKZ130-210300-
AREA 3A. BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AST THU JAN 20 2005

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...
...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY NEAR
AUGUSTINE ISLAND.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  
$$

PKZ132-210300-
AREA 3B. SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AST THU JAN 20 2005

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 40 KT BECOMING NE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 16 FT.
RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  
$$

PKZ138-210300-
AREA 3C. SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AST THU JAN 20 2005

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 40 KT BECOMING E 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  
$$

PKZ140-210300-
AREA 4. COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AST THU JAN 20 2005

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT BECOMING E 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
13 FT SUBSIDING TO 6 FT THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING NE 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
13 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY 
NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND.  
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
$$

PKZ141-210300-
AREA 4A. KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AST THU JAN 20 2005

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THIS MORNING...
...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT BECOMING E 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT.
SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY THIS MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION SOUTHWEST ALASKA
1114 AM AST WED JAN 19 2005

.DISCUSSION...985 MB LOW IN THE VICINITY OF KISKA AND AMCHITKA
ISLANDS HAS WEAK OCCLUDED FROM ARCING BACK FROM THE CENTER SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE ADAK/ATKA AREAS WITH LIGHT SNOW AND FOG BUT LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF ANY SIGNIFICANT WIND. LOW TO MOVE EAST TO ADAK BY 9 AM THU.
THE GRAD BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND THE ARCTIC HIGH OVER THE RUSSIAN
FAR EAST WILL ALLOW THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS NOW PICKING UP AT
SHEMYA TO SLOWLY SPREAD OVER AREA 13 BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
SNOW SHOWERS FOR AREAS WEST OF ADAK ALONG WITH NNW WINDS 25 TO 35
KTS.

BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE LOW WEAKENS A LITTLE AND MOVES TO UNMAK
ISLAND AND ALLOWS THE GRADIENT OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS
TO RELAX AND WINDS DIMINISHING BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE FRI
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE..ALL OF THE BERING WILL STAY UNDER COOL
NORTHERLY FLOW WITH WINDS UNDER 25 KTS AND WIDESPREAD MVFR.

EAST WINDS INCREASE MARKEDLY IN AREA 13 FRI NIGHT AS FRONT FROM NEXT
STORM ROTATES NORTHWARD. STORMS ARE CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY WITH THIS
FRONT ON SAT FROM KISKA TO ATTKA WITH GALES OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE OFFSHORE ZONE. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE MAX GALES WILL EXTEND
FROM THE FOX ISLANDS UP TO THE PRIBILOFS WITH STORM EXTENDING FROM
THE CENTRAL BERING SOUTH ACROSS PASY AND ATTU ON SAT NIGHT. THEN THE
FRONT STALLS OUT OVER AREAS 14..8. AND 6A SUN AND SUN NIGHT.

IF GFS IS RIGHT THEN A STRONG 959 LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE NORTHWEST
PACIFIC TO AREA 12B ON THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN AND
IT MOVES NORTHWARD WEST OF THE PRIBILOFS SO THE MIDDLE AND LATER PART
OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE QUITE STORMY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...13

PERCY JAN 05