Storm Warning 146, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 162315 CCA
CWFALU

SOUTHWEST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST..CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM ADT FRI SEP 16 2005

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-171400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 980 MB LOW NEAR GAMBELL WILL MOVE ON SHORE NEAR HOOPER BAY AT 992
MB SUN MORNING. A 997 MB LOW 200 NM SOUTHWEST OF DUTCH HARBOR WILL
MOVE TO 115 NM SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK CITY AND STRENGTHEN TO 983 MB SAT
AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ150-171400-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM ADT FRI SEP 16 2005

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...N WIND 40 KT BECOMING NW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-171400-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM ADT FRI SEP 16 2005

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT BECOMING W 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10 FT
BUILDING TO 16 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG. SHOWERS. 
.SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-171400-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM ADT FRI SEP 16 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-171400-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM ADT FRI SEP 16 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SHOWERS. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-171400-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM ADT FRI SEP 16 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SHOWERS. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SHOWERS. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-171400-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM ADT FRI SEP 16 2005

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 45 KT BECOMING W 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
13 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-171400-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM ADT FRI SEP 16 2005

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT BECOMING W 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10 FT
SUBSIDING TO 5 FT TOWARD MORNING. RAIN.
.SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SHOWERS. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-171400-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM ADT FRI SEP 16 2005

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-171400-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM ADT FRI SEP 16 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-171400-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM ADT FRI SEP 16 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-171400-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM ADT FRI SEP 16 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SHOWERS. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SHOWERS.  
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-171400-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM ADT FRI SEP 16 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SHOWERS. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SHOWERS. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 171146
CWFALU

SOUTHWEST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM ADT SAT SEP 17 2005

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-180200-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 985 MB LOW 25 NM SOUTH OF SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND WILL WEAKEN TO 
991 MB AS IT MOVES TO 35 NM WEST OF CAPE ROMANZOF SAT NIGHT AND 
THEN CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INLAND SUN MORNING. BROAD
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE BERING SEA THROUGH SUNDAY. 
A 987 MB LOW 100 NM SOUTHEAST OF SAND POINT WILL INTENSIFY AS IT
MOVES INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA SAT AFTERNOON. 

$$

PKZ150-180200-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM ADT SAT SEP 17 2005

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 40 KT BECOMING NW 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 17 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-180200-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM ADT SAT SEP 17 2005

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO W 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 17 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-180200-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM ADT SAT SEP 17 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING W 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SHOWERS. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-180200-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM ADT SAT SEP 17 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT AND SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-180200-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM ADT SAT SEP 17 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-180200-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM ADT SAT SEP 17 2005

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO W 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 15 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT AND SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-180200-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM ADT SAT SEP 17 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT AND SUN...W WIND 20 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-180200-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM ADT SAT SEP 17 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-180200-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM ADT SAT SEP 17 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 

$$

PKZ176-180200-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM ADT SAT SEP 17 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 

$$

PKZ185-180200-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM ADT SAT SEP 17 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-180200-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM ADT SAT SEP 17 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM ADT FRI SEP 16 2005

.DISCUSSION...THREE SYSTEMS TO DEAL WITH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE FIRST SYSTEM IS THE OLD LOW THAT IS
SPINNING AROUND OVER ST LAWRENCE ISLAND. THIS LOW IN CURRENTLY
AROUND 980 MB AND WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST
MAKING LANDFALL NEAR HOOPER BAY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS LOW WILL THEN
DISSIPATE BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE OCCLUSION ON THIS LOW IS WRAPPED AROUND THREE TIMES WITH THE
OUTERMOST BAND STRETCHING FROM THE CHUKCHI SEA COAST DOWN TO THE
NORTH COAST OF THE GULF OF ALASKA. A TRIPLE POINT LOW THAT DEVELOPED
ALONG THE FRONT IS NEAR SEWARD THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS THE SECOND
LOW OF INTEREST TODAY. THIS LOW IS CURRENTLY NEAR 999 MB AND WILL
WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD OVER THE KENAI MOUNTAINS
INTO THE SUSITNA VALLEY OVERNIGHT. IT STILL DOES HAVE SOME PUNCH AS
IT IS PRODUCING 40 KNOTS OF WIND AT MIDDLETON ISLAND AND ALONG THE
NORTH GULF COAST THIS AFTERNOON.

THE JET STREAM IS CURRENTLY RUNNING WEST TO EAST OVER THE ALEUTIAN
ISLANDS. IT IS FROM THE ENERGY PROVIDED BY THIS JET THAT THE THIRD
SIGNIFICANT LOW IS DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST OF DUTCH HARBOR THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EASTWARD AND REACH THE WESTERN
GULF OF ALASKA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL ALSO INTENSIFY
AS IT GOES FROM 997 MB THIS AFTERNOON TO 983 MB BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL THEN PROCEED TO MAKE LANDFALL AROUND 100
MILES EAST OF CORDOVA ON SUNDAY. THIS LOW WILL LIKELY BRING STORM
FORCE WINDS ALONG THE GULF COAST EAST OF MONTAGUE ISLAND SATURDAY
NIGHT AS IT MOVES INTO THAT AREA.

THE NAM/GFS/UKMET/ECMF MODELS ARE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EACH
OTHER IN THE BIG PICTURE. THERE ARE TWO SUBTLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
THE NAM AND GFS THAT SHOULD BE ADDRESSED. THE LOW THAT WILL BE ALONG
THE NORTH GULF COAST ON SUNDAY IS MAKING LANDFALL FURTHER WEST ON
THE NAM THAT WHERE THE GFS HAS IT DOING SO. I PREFER THE NAM
SOLUTION DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW AND THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THE PROJECTED STRENGTH OF THIS LOW HAS INCREASED
ON SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS AND THAT WOULD INDICATE A MORE LEFTWARD
MOVEMENT TO THE LOW.

THE OTHER ISSUE TO ADDRESS IS THE LOW NEAR ST LAWRENCE ISLAND. THE
NAM IS MOVING IT A LITTLE FASTER AND MORE TO THE SOUTH AS IT MAKES
LANDFALL ON SUNDAY MORNING. PREFER THE GFS SOLUTION WITH THE
MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 150 155 170 172 185.
         STORM 120.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

EZ SEP 05