Severe Thunderstorm Warning 4, NWS Las Vegas, NV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
908 PM PDT MON JUL 26 2004

.SYNOPSIS...DRIER AIR WILL MOVE OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND
MOJAVE DESERT ON TUESDAY...RESULTING IN A DECREASE IN AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND EAST CENTRAL NEVADA
INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES THE NEXT FEW DAY WILL COOL
SLIGHTLY AND BE NEAR NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY.
&&

.UPDATE...OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING EAST-WEST ACROSS SOUTHERN MOHAVE
COUNTY CONTINUING TO AID IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM NEAR
VALENTINE SOUTH TO WIKIEUP AT THE PRESENT TIME. OTHER AREA OF
INTEREST IN ACROSS EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY AROUND I-40 BETWEEN
LUDLOW AND ESSEX. STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG DRY LINE WITH DEWPOINTS
FALLING INTO THE MID 40S WITH WEST WIND AT BARSTOW-DAGGETT AND LOWER
60S WITH LIGHT SOUTH WIND AT NEEDLES. IN THE EVENING UPDATE WILL
EXTENDED THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO
EAST INTO SOUTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ENDED FOR THE EVENING AND WILL REMOVE
IN APPROPRIATE ZONES.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...330 PM PDT MON JUL 26...AFTERNOON CONVECTION ONCE
AGAIN FORMED OVER MUCH OF MOHAVE COUNTY AND THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
LINCOLN COUNTY...BUT OVERALL LESS ACTIVITY SEEN TODAY THAN PREVIOUS
FEW DAYS. EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS
BEFORE DISSIPATING OVERNIGHT. GENERAL TREND OF LESS CONVECTION (NO
CONVECTION) STILL LOOKS GOOD INTO TUESDAY AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO
THE PACNW... RESULTING IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE CWA. MAIN
QUESTION FOR TODAYS FORECAST HOWEVER WILL BE IF NORTHWEST FLOW DRIES
CWA OUT ENOUGH TO END AFTERNOON CONVECTION ON TUESDAY. BOTH ETA/GFS
CONTINUE WEAK DYNAMICS ACROSS MOHAVE/LINCOLN COUNTIES WITH GFS
DRIER/MORE STABLE THAN ETA. BELIEVE THAT FLOW ALOFT TO BE THE
KEY...THUS WILL REMOVE CONVECTION ON TUESDAY. BY
WEDNESDAY...DEFINITE DRIER CONDITIONS CWA WIDE AND CONTINUING INTO
THURSDAY. UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW...WILL SLOWLY COOL TEMPS INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...BUT CONTINUE WITH CURRENT TREND OF A KEEPING
TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE MOS.
&&

.LONG TERM...MODELS NOW INDICATE MORE OF A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY...IN BETWEEN A TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL US
AND ONE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW SOUTHWEST FLOW TO
BUILD IN OVERHEAD AND KEEP TEMPS NEAR NORMAL. SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY MODELS HAVE BEEN TRYING TO RE-BUILD THE MONSOONAL RIDGE OVER
NEW MEXICO. EXPECTING MAIN MOISTURE PLUME TO SHIFT BACK OVER THE
REGION EITHER SUNDAY OR MONDAY...WITH THE EURO GIVING A MUCH
STRONGER INDICATION OF THIS HAPPENING ON SUNDAY. TAKING INTO ACCOUNT
THE EURO...WILL ADD POPS TO MOHAVE COUNTY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MAY
NEED TO EXPAND POPS FURTHER WEST AS MODELS COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH RETURN OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE.
&&

.AVIATION...TAF ADEQUATELY COVERS ALL SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED
AT KLAS.
&&

.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.NV...NONE.
.AZ...NONE.
.CA...NONE.
&&

PIERCE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1000 AM PDT MON JUL 26 2004

AZZ001>003-036-CAZ026>029-NVZ014>022-271700-
DEATH VALLEY NATIONAL PARK-ESMERALDA AND CENTRAL NYE COUNTY-
LAKE HAVASU AND FORT MOJAVE-LAKE MEAD NATIONAL RECREATION AREA-
LAS VEGAS VALLEY-LINCOLN COUNTY-NORTHEAST CLARK COUNTY-
NORTHWEST DESERTS-NORTHWEST PLATEAU-
OWENS VALLEY AND ADJACENT EASTERN SIERRA SLOPES-
SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY DESERTS-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY-
UPPER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY-SHEEP RANGE-SOUTHERN CLARK COUNTY-
SPRING MOUNTAINS-RED ROCK CANYON-
WESTERN CLARK AND SOUTHERN NYE COUNTY-
1000 AM PDT (1000 AM MST) MON JUL 26 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA/SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA

.DAY ONE...TODAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.