Severe Thunderstorm Warning 49, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...MESOSCALE UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OKLAHOMA
357 PM CST SAT MAR 20 2004

21Z MESOSCALE ANALYSIS GRIDS SHOW THAT THE GREATEST INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS PHASING FROM JUST NORTH WEST OF FORT SMITH
TO NEAR MCALESTER.  LIFTED INDICES ARE NEAR -9 IN HASKELL AND
LATIMER COUNTIES.  IN ADDITION...OROGRAPHICS IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
WILL ENHANCE THE CONVERGENCE IN THE FRONT AND MAY RESULT IN LOCALLY
ENHANCED LIFT THERE AS WELL.

WHILE THE CAP REMAINS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO NEAR OR JUST
BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT MOVES SOUTH.  SHEAR PARAMETERS ARE VERY WEAK
FOR LATE MARCH SO HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.  EVEN THE HAIL
THREAT MAY BE REDUCED SOME BY THE WEAK SHEAR GIVEN THAT STONES MAY
NOT BE CARRIED CLEAR OF THE WARM UPDRAFT.

FORECAST ID= 08

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
OK...NONE.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
100 PM CST SAT MAR 20 2004

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-211200-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

...A CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

A COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED THE OUTLOOK AREA AND HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF
THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  THE AIRMASS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE HOWEVER THE CAP STRENGTH
HAS KEPT THUNDERSTORMS FROM FORMING ALONG THE COLD FRONT.

THE CAP WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO INITIATE BY MID AFTERNOON AS THE COLD
FRONT CONTINUES SOUTHWARD.  MODERATELY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL
EXIST ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 WITH LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THIS
LINE FAVORED FOR SEVERE WEATHER PRIOR TO COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.  WEAK
WIND FIELDS ALOFT COUPLED WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY FAVOR LARGE HAIL
AS THE PRIMARY THREAT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SOUTHWARD AND GRADUALLY PUSH THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT SOUTH OF THE OUTLOOK AREA BY MID EVENING.

WARNING PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES CAN BE
FOUND IN THE CURRENT HAZARDS SECTION AT: WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA.
GIVEN PROBABILITIES REPRESENT THE POTENTIAL FOR A WARNING TO BE
ISSUED AT YOUR LOCATION.

SPOTTER / EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THROUGH THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND GRAPHICAL
INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
431 PM CST SAT MAR 20 2004

OKZ073-202300-
PITTSBURG OK-
431 PM CST SAT MAR 20 2004

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 500 PM CST
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY:

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     PITTSBURG

AT 431 PM CST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF ALDERSON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS
THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...HARTSHORNE...
HAILEYVILLE...DOW...BACHE...ALDERSON AND KREBS.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
40 MPH.