Tornado Warning 32, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
230 PM EDT SUN AUG 15 2004

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-TUE)...AFTER ANOTHER ROUND OF NUMEROUS AFTN
TSTMS (SEE SPECIAL WX STATEMENT ISSUED AT 1 PM)...CONDS SHOULD
FINALLY RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL...PERHAPS EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  500 MB RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED
OVER THE STATE THROUGH THE PERIOD...MEANING SCATTERED MAINLY AFTN
TSTMS EVENTUALLY FAVORING THE COAST BY MID WEEK.  SO...ASIDE FROM
AUGUST (90 OR SO) DEGREE HEAT...RECOVERY EFFORTS FROM CHARLEY SHOULD
BE ABLE TO PROCEED WITHOUT MUCH INTERFERENCE FROM RAIN.

.LONG TERM (TUE NIGHT - SUN)...THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY KEEPING EAST TO SE WINDS IN PLACE...WITH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
OVER THE STATE THROUGH FRIDAY. UPPER TROUGH STARTS TO DIG INTO THE SE
US OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A WEAKENING COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO SOUTHERN
GA AND AL. THIS WILL CAUSE THE SFC RIDGE TO SINK SOUTHWARD OVER THE
WEEKEND AND TURN WINDS MORE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY. WITH THE
UNCERTAINTY OF EARL IN THE FORECAST AS WELL AS THE APPROACHING
TROUGH...HAVE KEPT HIGH-END SCATTERED POPS IN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH
MORE DIURNAL CLIMO POPS FOR WED AND THURS. KEPT TEMPS NEAR NORMAL
THROUGH THURSDAY AND THEN BACK HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND TO ACCOUNT FOR MORE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP.

&&

.MARINE...QUIET THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH E WINDS LESS THAN 10
KT...THEN A BIT OF A PICKUP TOWARD THE WEEKEND FROM THE ESE
AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 075 091 076 091 / 20 40 20 40
FMY 074 091 075 092 / 20 40 20 40
GIF 074 091 075 092 / 30 50 20 40
SRQ 074 090 074 090 / 20 40 20 40
BKV 071 091 072 091 / 30 40 20 40

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

SHORT TERM...BSG
LONG TERM....JLC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
545 AM EDT SUN AUG 15 2004

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-151430-
CHARLOTTE-CITRUS-DE SOTO-HARDEE-HERNANDO-HIGHLANDS-HILLSBOROUGH-LEE-
LEVY-MANATEE-PASCO-PINELLAS-POLK-SARASOTA-SUMTER-
545 AM EDT SUN AUG 15 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY:

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
AS DEEP MOISTURE COMBINES WITH DAYTIME HEATING...THE SEA BREEZE AND A
RATHER UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE.  THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM STRONGER CELLS
WILL BE FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS TO
40 MPH AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS THAT COULD CAUSE MINOR FLOODING OF
LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

RIVERS...CREEKS...AND STREAMS IN WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA ARE RUNNING
HIGH...WITH SOME ALREADY IN FLOOD OR AT CAUTION STAGE.  THE GROUND
IS SATURATED IN MANY AREAS...AND ADDITIONAL RAINS WILL RUNOFF
QUICKLY...INCREASING THE THREAT FOR MINOR FRESHWATER FLOODING AS
WELL AS PUSHING SWELLING RIVERS TOWARD FLOOD STAGE.

WHEN SKIES DARKEN...MOVE INDOORS.  IF THERE IS TIME...UNPLUG
APPLIANCES AND ELECTRICAL EQUIPMENT.  WAIT UNTIL THE STORM ENDS
BEFORE USING THE TELEPHONE OR RUNNING WATER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY:

SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED EACH DAY.  THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM STRONGER CELLS WILL BE
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TBW (LOWER CASE)

FOR RIVER FLOOD INFORMATION...CHECK OUR ADVANCED HYDROLOGICAL
PREDICTION PAGE AT

HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/CGI-BIN/AHPS.CGI?TBW

PRC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
103 PM EDT SUN AUG 15 2004

FLZ052-056-061-062-065-152300-
CHARLOTTE-DE SOTO-HARDEE-LEE-POLK-
103 PM EDT SUN AUG 15 2004

...NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN 2 AND 4 PM WITH
LOCALLY TORRENTIAL RAINS...

VERY UNSTABLE AIR COMBINED WITH BOUNDARIES FROM ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS
OVER LARGE AREAS EAST AND WEST OF CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL AID IN RAPID
DEVELOPMENT OF MORE THUNDERSTORMS IN WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA IN AREAS
WHERE RECOVERY AND CLEANUP OPERATIONS CONTINUE IN THE WAKE OF
HURRICANE CHARLEY.

STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM POLK
COUNTY SOUTHWARD TO CHARLOTTE AND LEE COUNTIES BETWEEN 2 AND 4
PM...AND LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY 6 PM BEFORE FADING TO LIGHT
RAIN.  AREAL RAINFALL AVERAGES WILL RANGE FROM ONE HALF TO ONE INCH.
LOCATIONS UNDER INDIVIDUAL STORM CELLS WILL RECEIVE 1 TO 2
INCHES...WITH 3 OR MORE INCHES IN THE STRONGEST CELLS.

STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING...SO DURATION OF LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINS
COULD BE AN HOUR OR MORE IN SOME AREAS.

ONE OR TWO STORMS MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH.

RESIDENTS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT TO DETERIORATING WEATHER CONDITIONS
THIS AFTERNOON.  REMEMBER...LIGHTNING KILLS  IF YOU HEAR
THUNDER...SEEK SAFETY INDOORS IF POSSIBLE.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
UPDATES.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TBW

BSG