Flash Flood Warning 38, NWS San Diego, CA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO
230 AM PDT FRI AUG 13 2004

.SYNOPSIS...MONSOONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOONS. OTHERWISE...THE COOLING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WEAKENS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES.

LOW CLOUDS WERE ALONG THE SAN DIEGO/S ORANGE COUNTY COASTS WHERE THE
MARINE INVERSION WAS AROUND 1200 FEET...AND PLENTY OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS
WERE OVER INLAND AREAS...ESPECIALLY SINCE SOME MID-LEVEL OUTFLOW WAS
OCCURRING FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION OVER AZ/S NV.

IN THE MODELS...INSTABILITY/CAPE ARE CERTAINLY STRONG ENOUGH FOR
TSTORMS TODAY...BUT HIGH CLOUDS MIGHT SUPPRESS THINGS A BIT. ENOUGH
MOISTURE WILL BE AROUND...ESPECIALLY IN THE 700-500 MB RANGE. THE
FLASH FLOODING THREAT WILL BE FAIRLY LOW EXCEPT IN THE RECENT BURN
AREAS DUE TO A 15-KT WIND FROM THE SOUTH WHICH WILL KEEP THE TSTORMS
ON THE MOVE. SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HAVE QUITE A BIT OF
MOISTURE...EVEN THOUGH WINDS ARE MORE WESTERLY. SO...THE GRIDS/ZONES
HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES OF TSTORMS THEN. GFS HAS MARGINALLY ENOUGH
MOISTURE FOR TSTORMS FOR SUNDAY...BUT THE WEST WINDS WILL WORK TO
MAKE THINGS DRIER AND MORE STABLE...SO I WILL KEEP SUNDAY DRY FOR
NOW. THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AND
ALLOW FOR MORE NOCTURNAL PENETRATION OF THE LOW CLOUDS.

THE EXTENDED IS RATHER TRICKY SINCE THE RECENT TREND HAS BEEN FOR
LESS TROUGHING OFF THE COAST. SO...FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...THERE WILL
BE LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMP AND PROBABLY NO TSTORMS. RIGHT NOW...THE
MODELS HAVE THE HIGHEST HEIGHTS AT 500 MB TO OUR SOUTH...BUT THE 500
MB GRADIENTS ARE SO MINIMAL THAT A SMALL CHANGE IN THE 500 MB FLOW
COULD BRING A BIG CHANGE WEATHERWISE...ESPECIALLY WITH REGARDS TO
TSTORMS.

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

MAXWELL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
630 AM PDT FRI AUG 13 2004

CAZ042-043-048-057-141300-
ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-
SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-
SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE-
SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS-
630 AM PDT FRI AUG 13 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ORANGE COUNTY...THE SAN DIEGO
COUNTY COASTAL AREAS AND THE INLAND EMPIRE.

.DAY ONE... TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

MOISTURE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CAUSE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY.

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEADLY LIGHTNING AND MAY HAVE BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN...STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

CAZ050-141300-
SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS-
630 AM PDT FRI AUG 13 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS

.DAY ONE... TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 800 PM.

MOISTURE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CAUSE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY.

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEADLY LIGHTNING AND WILL HAVE BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN...STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. HEAVY RAIN COULD CAUSE FLOODING
AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN THE RECENTLY BURNED AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

CAZ055-056-058-060-061-062-141300-
SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
APPLE AND YUCCA VALLEYS-
COACHELLA VALLEY-
SAN DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS-
630 AM PDT FRI AUG 13 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR
THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS OF EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE... TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 800 PM.

MOISTURE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CAUSE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEADLY LIGHTNING AND WILL HAVE BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN...STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. HEAVY RAIN COULD CAUSE
FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN THE RECENTLY BURNED AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

MOIST UNSTABLE AIR WILL CONTINUE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEADLY LIGHTNING AND MAY HAVE BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN...STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. LOCAL HEAVY RAIN COULD CAUSE
FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN THE RECENTLY BURNED AREAS.

DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MAXWELL