Severe Thunderstorm Warning 32, NWS Pueblo, CO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
300 PM MDT TUE JUN 8 2004

.SHORT TERM...
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

...MAIN CONCERN IS FIRE WX WITH SOME SVR PLAINS...

CURRENTLY...SURGE HAS MADE IT INTO SE CO. TEMPS STILL HAVE MADE IT
INTO THE 90S PLAINS WITH DEWS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. ON THE LARGE
SCALE...UPPER TROUGH OFF W COAST STILL FCST TO MOVE IN AND INCREASE
WINDS ALOFT LATE IN THE FCST PD.

THIS AFTERNOON...MM5 SHOWS ISOLD CONVECTION BREAKING OUT AND MOVING
NE ACROSS THE PLAINS. THUNDER ALREADY ONGOING NEAR TAD AT 130 PM
MOVING EAST. BETTER DEWS IN SPRINGS AREA AND EXPECT STORMS TO GET
GOING THIS AREA SHORTLY. A FEW MARGINAL SVR CELLS POSSIBLE AS WINDS
ALOFT RATHER WEAK.

TONIGHT...STORMS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS FAR E PLAINS INTO THE
EVENING HOURS WITH STORM ENDING BY LATE EVENING. OTHERWISE PC.

TOMORROW...MAIN CONCERN IS FIRE WX. AS PER CONF CALL W/RMACC ERC
VALUES ABOVE 90% WITH 97% COMBUSTILBE EFFICIENCY OVER SJU AND S
MTNS. WILL BE ISSUING A FIRE WX WATCH BY MID AFTERNOON AND THIS
WATCH WILL BE IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM ON THURSDAY. THIS WATCH WILL
ONLY AFFECT MTNS FOR NOW AS LINGERING MOISTURE MAY REMAIN ON PLAINS.
THE REASON FOR THE WATCH WILL BE SYSTEM MOVING ONSHORE AND WINDS
INCREASING ALOFT. WITH SOME MARGINAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE IN THE
MTNS...ISOLD LTG THREAT WILL ONLY ADD TO THE VERY DRY CONDITIONS
AND INCREASING WINDS. IN ADDITION...THE FIRE WX WATCH IS FOR ALL
ELEVATIONS AS SAGUACHE DISPATCH THIS MORNING HAS A PRESCRIBED FIRE
POSIBLY GETTING OUT OF HAND BETWEEN 9000 AND 10000 FEET.

SPEAKING OF THE PLAINS...WITH ABOVE LINGERING MOISTURE...THREAT OF
STORMS WILL BE WITH US ONCE AGAIN WITH SCT ACTIVITY. WINDS ONCE
AGAIN ARE FCST TO BE RATHER LIGHT ALOFT BUT WILL GRADUALLY BE ON
THE INCREASE. A FEW MARGINAL SVR WILL BE POSSIBLE. /HODANISH

.LONG TERM...
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)

WILL KEEP THIS RATHER SHORT AS GETTING BUSY WITH DEVELOPING STORMS
AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. NOT MUCH DIFFERENCE FROM EARLIER
THINKING AS SOUTHWEST TO ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS STILL EXPECTED THROUGH
THE LONG TERM AS UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN NEVADA AT 06Z/THURSDAY
PUSHES INTO MONTANA BY LATE THURSDAY AND THEN MOVES INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA DURING THE WEEKEND.

AT THE SURFACE...MOISTURE ATTEMPTS TO FLUSH OUT BY LATE IN THE
WEEK...BEFORE ANOTHER MOISTURE SURGE ATTEMPTS TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND REMAINS OVER REGION INTO TUESDAY.

SO FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW INHERITED GRIDS
RATHER CLOSELY WITH LOW GRADE MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING POPS
OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND THEN AGAIN FROM
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY FOR A LARGER CHUNK OF THE CWFA.

WILL KEEP WARM TEMPERATURES FROM THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY...WITH
SOME COOLING EXPECTED BY LATER IN THE WEEKEND TO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
STILL EXPECT SOME FAIRLY HEALTHY WINDS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 12 NOON
WEDNESDAY TO 10 PM THURSDAY. WATCH IS FOR ZONES 220>225. THIS
INCLUDES THE SAN JUAN MTNS...C MTNS...SAN LUIS VALLEY...SOUTHERN MTNS
AND PIKES PEAK.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1123 AM MDT TUE JUN 8 2004

COZ058>089-093>099-091300-
ALAMOSA VICINITY/CENTRAL SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
CANON CITY VICINITY/EASTERN FREMONT COUNTY-
CENTRAL CHAFFEE COUNTY BELOW 9000 FT-
COLORADO SPRINGS VICINITY/SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE
BELOW 7500 FT-CROWLEY COUNTY-
DEL NORTE VICINITY/NORTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
EASTERN KIOWA COUNTY-EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY-
EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
EASTERN SAWATCH MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
LA GARITA MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-LA JUNTA VICINITY/OTERO COUNTY-
LAMAR VICINITY/PROWERS COUNTY-LAS ANIMAS VICINITY/BENT COUNTY-
LEADVILLE VICINITY/LAKE COUNTY BELOW 11000 FT-
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/MONUMENT RIDGE/RAMPART RANGE BELOW 7500 FT-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FEET-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 8500 AND 11000 FT-
NORTHWESTERN FREMONT COUNTY ABOVE 8500 FT-PIKES PEAK ABOVE 11000 FT-
PUEBLO AND VICINITY/PUEBLO COUNTY BELOW 6300 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY EAST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY WEST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
SOUTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 7500 AND 11000 FT-
SPRINGFIELD VICINITY/BACA COUNTY-
TELLER COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE ABOVE 7500 FT/PIKES PEAK BETWEEN 7500
AND 11000 FT-
TRINIDAD VICINITY/WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY BELOW 7500 FT-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY/EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS BELOW 10000 FT-
WALSENBURG VICINITY/UPPER HUERFANO RIVER BASIN BELOW 7500 FT-
WESTERN CHAFFEE COUNTY BETWEEN 9000 AND 11000 FT-
WESTERN KIOWA COUNTY-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST CHAFFEE COUNTY ABOVE 9000 FT-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST LAKE COUNTY ABOVE 11000 FT-
WESTERN/CENTRAL FREMONT COUNTY BELOW 8500 FT-
WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY BELOW 8500 FEET-WET MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
WET MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 6300 AND 10000 FT-
1123 AM MDT TUE JUN 8 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ONE OR TWO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING OVER TELLER AND EL PASO COUNTIES...AS WELL AS IN THE
EASTERN PLAINS FROM CROWLEY...OTERO...AND EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTIES
EASTWARD TO THE KANSAS BORDER. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL
BE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60
MPH.

LATEST COMPUTER GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THAT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DEVELOP OVER THESE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHEAST AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL COLORADO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN
THREATS FROM ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...HAIL UP TO 1/2 INCH IN DIAMETER...AND WIND GUSTS TO 45
MPH. THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND WEST OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LITTLE OR NO RAIN.

A FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE
PLAINS EARLY THURSDAY...BRINGING GUSTY WEST WINDS ALONG WITH A VERY
DRY AIR MASS. CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...
DRY FUELS...AND INCREASING WINDS MEAN THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY. OF PARTICULAR CONCERN WOULD
BE ANY FIRE STARTS FROM WEDNESDAYS ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING...FOLLOWED
QUICKLY BY STRONG WEST WINDS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT MEET REPORTING CRITERIA FOR SPOTTERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER TELLER AND EL PASO
COUNTIES...AS WELL OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS FROM
CROWLEY...OTERO...AND EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTIES EASTWARD TO THE
KANSAS BORDER.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
319 PM MDT TUE JUN 08 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0245 PM     HAIL             N KIM                   37.24N 103.35W
06/08/2004  1.00 INCH        LAS ANIMAS         CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

WFF