Severe Thunderstorm Warning 240, NWS Twin Cities, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
305PM CDT TUE AUG 24 2004

.DISCUSSION...
A COUPLE OF OPORTUNITES FOR RAIN OVERNIGHT...MAINLY THIS EVENING.
FIRST TROUGH...LIFTING INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...WILL LIKELY MISS
MOST OF WI CWA THIS EVENING.  THEN SURFACE FRONT...MOVING INTO
WESTENR MN AT THIS TIEM...COULD STILL GENERATE WIDELY SCATTERED TRSA
THIS EVENING...AS ANOTHER SHEARING SHORT WAVE MOVES FROM SOUTHEST
NODAK INTO SOUTHERN CANADA.  FORCING IS WEAK...AND CURRENT
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS INDICATE MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG
FRONT...BUT LOW LEVEL FLOW VERY WEAK.  NOTHING INDICATES ANYTHING
MORE THAN CHANCE POPS...MAINLY THIS EVENING....THEN EAST
OVERNIGHT...IF SOMETHING DEVELOPS AND CONTINUES AFTER DARK.

WEATHER TRENDS MORE UNCERTAIN...AS MODELS DIVERGE ON MOVEMENT OF
SURFACE FRONT...AND FAST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.  ETA LIFTS SHORTWAVE
OVER THE CWA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...WITH GFS HOLDING OFF UNTIL
WEDN NIGHT AND THURSDAY...AS MAIN UPPER JET/TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.
WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS...MAINLY FOR THE AFTERNOON
WEDNESDAY.  THEN WILL GO HIGHER POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...AS BOTH
MODELS BRING THE TROUGH/FRONT THROUGH THEN.  FRONT DRIVEN FAR SOUTH
INTO FRIDAY...WITH SOME WEAK BAROCLINICITY LINGERING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN BORDER FRIDAY.  WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AS RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET/EXITING TROUGH MOVEE THROUGH.  MID
LEVEL MOISTURE IDICATED...AND NO INSTABILITY.

TEMEPRATURES SHOULD BE IN THE 80-85 DEGREE RANGE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS...AHEAD OF FORNT.  THEN COOING/DRYING BACK INTO THE 70S FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY.

LONGTERM OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING PREFERRED
THE DGEX MODEL SOLUTION. THE PAST FEW MODEL RUNS THE GFS HAS COME
MORE INLINE WITH THE PREVIOUS AND CURRENT DGEX SOLUTIONS. SO HAVE
CURTAIL POPS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AND WENT ALONG WITH
BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF OUR CWA DURING THE
PERIOD....MAINLY WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING OVER
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF CWA LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
NEGATIVE TILTED LONGWAVE TROUGH...THAT HAS LINGER OVER MUCH OF THE
NATION MIDSECTION THE PAST FEW DAYS AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEKEND...WL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST OVR THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY
DAY 5.  PROGGED UPPER FLOW PATTERN THEN BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY DAY 6
WITH A MINOR PERTURBATION IN THE FLOW INDICATED BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

&&

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.

&&

DE/JVM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
550 AM CDT TUE AUG 24 2004

MNZ041>044-047>051-054>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-241800-
ANOKA-BENTON-BLUE EARTH-BROWN-CARVER-CHIPPEWA-DAKOTA-DOUGLAS-
FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-GOODHUE-HENNEPIN-KANDIYOHI-LAC QUI PARLE-LE SUEUR-
MARTIN-MCLEOD-MEEKER-MILLE LACS-MORRISON-NICOLLET-POPE-RAMSEY-
REDWOOD-RENVILLE-RICE-SCOTT-SHERBURNE-SIBLEY-STEARNS-STEELE-STEVENS-
SWIFT-TODD-WASECA-WASHINGTON-WATONWAN-WRIGHT-YELLOW MEDICINE-
550 AM CDT TUE AUG 24 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE
NUMEROUS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS A GOOD SHARE OF CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA.  THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT SOME OF THE
STORMS COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING WIND.  HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO
A POSSIBILITY. A BETTER CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER EXISTS TONIGHT...
WHEN SEVERE STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO MOVE INTO MINNESOTA FROM THE
DAKOTAS. IF THIS SCENARIO UNFOLDS FOR TONIGHT...DAMAGING WIND WOULD
BE THE MAIN HAZARD.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY... WITH
SEVERE WEATHER ONCE AGAIN A POSSIBILITY. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEVERE
WEATHER WOULD BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON
OR EVENING.  HEAVY RAINS MIGHT ALSO OCCUR.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

MNZ045-052-053-WIZ014>016-023>028-241800-
BARRON-CHIPPEWA-CHISAGO-DUNN-EAU CLAIRE-ISANTI-KANABEC-PEPIN-PIERCE-
POLK-RUSK-ST CROIX-
550 AM CDT TUE AUG 24 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA INTO WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE
NUMEROUS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO
WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.  THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT SOME OF THE
STORMS COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING WIND. HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO
A POSSIBILITY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...
BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS MORE LIKELY ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING. DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD. HEAVY RAINS MIGHT
ALSO OCCUR.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

TDK