Severe Thunderstorm Warning 174, NWS Twin Cities, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
300 AM CDT WED JUN 30 2004

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CONCERN NEAR TERM...FRONTAL MOVEMENT AND CONVECTIVE
INITIATION POTENTIAL.  WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT/ELEVATED INSTABILITY HAS
GENERATED A FEW -SHRA/-TSRA OVER SOUTHEAST SODAK THIS MORNING.  NEW
ETA INDICATES INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN OVER THIS REGION THIS
MORNING/BRUSHING SOUTHWEST CORNER PERHAPS BEFORE DISSIPATING.  FOCUS
THEN TURNS TO FRONT MOVING INTO NORTHERN MN THIS MORNING.  SOME
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED...ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE TROF.  BEST
FORCING SHIFTS OFF INTO GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE DAY...AS FRONT
SAGS INTO NORTHERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON.  EXPECT SOME SCATTERED
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ZONE AND
INSTABILITY POCKET.  CIN DROPS TO ZERO...MAINLY INTO NORTHEAST CWA
BY LATE AFTERNOON.  THIS THEN SAGS SOUTH DURING THE EVENING...AND
WEAKENS AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO SOUTHERN MN.  WILL CONTINUE SCATTERED
WORDING WITH THE ACTIVITY AS FRONT SAGS SOUTH. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
MAX OUT CLOSE TO 90 IN WEST CENTRAL MN.  MAY BE SOME CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON THERE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE. AND
SOME MORNING ACCAS MAY LIMIT READINGS SOMEWHAT AS WELL.  STILL LIKE
WARMER MAV/NGM COMBO TODAY...WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT.

FRONT SAGS INTO SOUTHERN MN AND WEAKENS OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY.
WILL CONTINUE LOW CHANCE POPS DURING THIS PERIOD...AS FORCING
LIMITED.  SOME QUESTION AS TO ANY REDEVELOPMENT THURSDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY FRIDAY AS WELL.  AGAIN FORCING WEAK...AS WAITING ON NEXT SHORT
WAVE MOVING THROUGH LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.  WILL STAY THE
COURSE FOR NOW...AND SEE WHAT NEXT MODEL RUN DELIVERS.

LONGER TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE GFS CONTINUES TO
STRUGGLE WITH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A RATHER STRONG LOW AT H5 IS
FORECAST TO PASS SOUTH OF US EARLY SATURDAY WHILE A SERIES OF
NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVES PASS BY JUST TO THE NORTH OF US. A COLD
FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO WORK SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE SATURDAY-SUNDAY TIME PERIOD BUT THE FOCUS ON FORCING IS
WELL TO THE SE WITH THE UPPER LOW. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD TAKE
CONTROL FROM CANADA BY MONDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE WX PORTION OF THE EXTENDED GRIDS
WITHOUT SEEING THE NEW ENSEMBLE DATA.

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.

&&

/RAH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
527 AM CDT WED JUN 30 2004

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-011027-
ANOKA-BARRON-BENTON-BLUE EARTH-BROWN-CARVER-CHIPPEWA-CHISAGO-DAKOTA-
DOUGLAS-DUNN-EAU CLAIRE-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-GOODHUE-HENNEPIN-ISANTI-
KANABEC-KANDIYOHI-LAC QUI PARLE-LE SUEUR-MARTIN-MCLEOD-MEEKER-
MILLE LACS-MORRISON-NICOLLET-PEPIN-PIERCE-POLK-POPE-RAMSEY-REDWOOD-
RENVILLE-RICE-RUSK-SCOTT-SHERBURNE-SIBLEY-ST CROIX-STEARNS-STEELE-
STEVENS-SWIFT-TODD-WASECA-WASHINGTON-WATONWAN-WRIGHT-YELLOW MEDICINE-
527 AM CDT WED JUN 30 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS MINNESOTA AND
WISCONSIN TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME
SEVERE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...AND CONTAIN
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY. A FEW
SEVERE STORMS...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL...ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

RAH