Severe Thunderstorm Warning 136, NWS Twin Cities, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
920 PM CDT MON JUN 7 2004

.DISCUSSION...
CAP HELD FIRMLY IN PLACE LATE THIS AFTN AND EVE...ONLY LETTING WK
CELLS ON NRN PERIPHERY OF COUNTY WARNING AREA...CLOSER TO STRONGER
SYNOPTIC LIFTING.  WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED INTO CENTRAL
MN...FM VCNTY OF KPNM TO KMML.  SOME MID LEVEL COOLING ASSOCD WITH
UPSTREAM TROF IN DAKOTAS...WHICH IS SHOWING UP NICELY IN NRN PLAINS
WIND PROFILER NET.  THETA-E RIDGE BUILDS INTO CENTRAL/WRN MN DURING
THE NIGHT ALONG WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE.  ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL JET
TO REMAIN WEST AND SOUTH OF AREA...BELIEVE STILL A THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL/WRN MN.  WITH
LOW LEVEL INFLOW CONTINUING TO WKN AND LOSS OF INSOLATION...BELIEVE
THREAT MORE SCT WITH ISOLD HAIL THREAT.  WITH LOW LEVEL JET
REMAINING SOUTHWEST...MIDNIGHT SHIFT WL NEED TO REEVALUATE LKLY
WORDING FOR TUE MRNG.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.

&&

NOTE...EFFECTIVE 1200 ETC JUNE 8TH THE AWIPS PRODUCT IDENTIFIER
/PID/ FOR THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION ISSUED BY WFO TWIN
CITIES/CHANHASSEN  WILL CHANGE FROM AFDMSP TO AFDMPX.  THE WMO CODE
WILL REMAIN FXUS63 KMPX.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
350 PM CDT MON JUN 7 2004

MNZ042>045-081100-
KANABEC-MILLE LACS-MORRISON-TODD-
350 PM CDT MON JUN 7 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS DOWNGRADED THE MODERATE RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS FOR TONIGHT
OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL MINNESOTA. VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR IS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION SETTING THE STAGE FOR DEVELOPING STORMS THIS
EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE DAKOTAS. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED
TORNADO IS POSSIBLE WHEN THE THUNDERSTORMS FIRST DEVELOP.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA FOR DURING
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT THEN START TO PUSH NORTH DURING
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SOME STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE AGAIN AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY RETURNS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED EARLY TONIGHT.

MNZ041-047>050-054>057-081100-
BENTON-CHIPPEWA-DOUGLAS-KANDIYOHI-LAC QUI PARLE-POPE-STEARNS-STEVENS-
SWIFT-
350 PM CDT MON JUN 7 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS INDICATED A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. VERY UNSTABLE AIR IS IN PLACE SETTING THE
STAGE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THUNDERSTORMS COULD QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE
AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS
POSSIBLE WHEN THE THUNDERSTORMS FIRST DEVELOP.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA DURING TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...BUT THEN START TO PUSH BACK NORTH DURING THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. SOME STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE AGAIN AS THE WARM FRONT
RETURNS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING.

MNZ051>053-058>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-081100-
ANOKA-BARRON-BLUE EARTH-BROWN-CARVER-CHIPPEWA-CHISAGO-DAKOTA-DUNN-
EAU CLAIRE-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-GOODHUE-HENNEPIN-ISANTI-LE SUEUR-
MARTIN-MCLEOD-MEEKER-NICOLLET-PEPIN-PIERCE-POLK-RAMSEY-REDWOOD-
RENVILLE-RICE-RUSK-SCOTT-SHERBURNE-SIBLEY-ST CROIX-STEELE-WASECA-
WASHINGTON-WATONWAN-WRIGHT-YELLOW MEDICINE-
350 PM CDT MON JUN 7 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS INDICATED A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR IS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE AREA SETTING THE STAGE FOR DEVELOPING STORMS OVERNIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE DAKOTAS. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME
SEVERE AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN ON TUESDAY...THUS MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE AGAIN...AND
THERE WILL ALSO BE A THREAT OF TORRENTIAL RAINS. THE FRONT WILL PUSH
SLIGHTLY SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THEN PUSH BACK NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MORE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT.