Severe Thunderstorm Warning 88, NWS Mobile, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
959 AM CDT WED JUL 14 2004

PER CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...HAVE UPDATED ZONES TO REDUCE RAIN CHANCES
TO AROUND 40 PERCENT FOR ALL ZONES.  HOWEVER...THERE IS NO APPARENT
CAPPING INVERSION AND WE WILL SEE MORE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON.  LATEST VSBL SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE NEARLY FULL
SOLAR INSOLATION LATE THIS AM OVER MOST ZONES WHICH WILL SEND SFC
TEMPS INTO THE 94 TO 98F RANGE INLAND...AND 92 TO 96F RANGE ALONG
THE COAST. HEAT INDICES ALSO HEADED INTO THE 106-111F RANGE
INLAND....BUT DEEP RADIATIONAL COOLING AT NIGHT WILL KEEP MINIMUMS
WELL BELOW THE 80F THRESHOLD FOR A HEAT ADVISORY.

THE LOCAL PROBLEM OF THE DAY IS CLEARLY THE WET MICROBURST THREAT.
LAST FEW DAYS HAVE SEEN SOME HEALTHIER WIND GUSTS AS DRIER AIR HAS
ADVECTED INTO OUR LOCAL MID TROPOSPHERE AND SFC-FRZG LEVEL LAPSE
RATES HAVE INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY.  ANALYSIS OF UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS
USING RUC MODEL REVEAL MORE OF THE SAME FOR TODAY.  TSTMS WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS IN THE 40 TO 55 MPH RANGE ON AN ISOLATED
BASIS.

FINALLY...MADE SOME MINOR EDITS TO THE SFC WINDS AND CLOUD COVER FOR
THIS EVENING.

MARINE WISE....WILL CONTINUE WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS
AND SEAS AROUND 2 FEET. BAYS AND COASTAL WATERWAYS WILL MOSTLY HAVE
A LIGHT CHOP. WINDS AND SEAS OF COURSE HIGHER NEAR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS.

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.

23 MEDLIN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
530 AM CDT WED JUL 14 2004

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-141730-
BALDWIN COASTAL-BALDWIN INLAND-BUTLER-CHOCTAW-CLARKE-CONECUH-
COVINGTON-CRENSHAW-ESCAMBIA-ESCAMBIA COASTAL-ESCAMBIA INLAND-GEORGE-
GREENE-MOBILE COASTAL-MOBILE INLAND-MONROE-OKALOOSA COASTAL-
OKALOOSA INLAND-PERRY-SANTA ROSA COASTAL-SANTA ROSA INLAND-STONE-
WASHINGTON-WAYNE-WILCOX-
530 AM CDT WED JUL 14 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI AND THE EXTREME WESTERN PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL INTERACT WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SEVERE
STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED SOME STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE...PRODUCING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF
58 MPH...HAIL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AFTER
SUNSET. CURRENTLY...THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS IS NOT
ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.