Severe Thunderstorm Warning 57, NWS Mobile, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
300 PM CDT THU JUN 17 2004

.SHORT TERM...LATEST SFC MAP AND WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW WEAK TROP
WAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL GULF
STRETCHING NORTH ALONG THE CENTRAL FL PANHANDLE...THUS GIVING WAY TO
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A DEVELOPING
SEABREEZE BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM MOBILE AL TO THE EAST FL
PANHANDLE. LATEST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION SHOW SOME MID LEVEL
DRY AIR ALOFT SUGGESTING MAYBE A CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED DOWNBURST
OR SMALL HAIL THOUGH MID LEVEL FORCING FOR DEEPER CONVECTION IS
RATHER LIMITED. WITH THIS WILL RAISE POPS TO 30 TO 50 PERCENT OVER
MOST COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE CWFA FOR THIS EVENING. LATEST RUC AND
ETA SOLUTIONS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH CURRENT PATTERN ACROSS THE
EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY WITH DEEP RIDGING OCCURRING ACROSS MUCH
OF THE SOUTHEAST TO THE FL PAN WITH WEAK MID LEVEL FORCING OCCURRING
FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE EAST CENTRAL GULF. TO THE WEST REMNANTS OF
OLD TROF CONTINUES TO LINGER MOSTLY AT THE SFC...MAINLY OVER EASTERN
TEXAS STRETCHING INTO N LA...GIVING WAY TO MORE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS FOR THAT PART OF THE COUNTRY. BY SAT THIS
WEAKENING SFC FEATURE WILL PUSH EAST SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL MS AND
AL BECOMING REINFORCED LATER IN THE WEEKEND AS NEXT S/W PUSHES
SOUTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MS VALLEY. WITH THIS WILL
HAVE TO RAISE POPS MAINLY FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ON SAT
CONTINUING WITH SCATTERED POPS FOR SUN. CURRENT FCST TEMPS LOOK
CLOSE TO MAV/ETA MOS GUIDANCE WITH AFT HIGHS NEAR 90 AND LOWS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.EXTENDED...DEEP RIDGE BEGINS TO REBUILD FROM THE EAST BY TUES WITH
CONTINUED AFT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE REGION...
MAINLY FROM AFTERNOON HEATING...SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
HIGH INSTABILITIES. CURRENT MRF GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW TEMPS TO
NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS...NEAR 90 BY EACH AFTERNOON WITH MINS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.MARINE...LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DOMINATE AL/NW FL COASTAL
WATERS INTO SATURDAY. A SYSTEM PASSING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS
LATER SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL MOVE A WEAK FRONT NEAR THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
SHIFT SOUTHWARD A BIT...PROVIDING A MORE SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW OVER
COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SHIFTING NORTHWARD AND A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY
FLOW LATER MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

/16

.FIRE...NO CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY TEMPS / POPS...

MOBILE     76 89 76 88 / 30 50 20 50
PENSACOLA  77 89 77 89 / 40 50 20 50
DESTIN     78 88 78 88 / 50 50 20 50
EVERGREEN  73 90 73 89 / 20 50 20 50
WAYNESBORO 73 91 74 90 / 20 50 20 50
CAMDEN     74 92 74 90 / 20 50 20 50

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.

/32

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
545 AM CDT THU JUN 17 2004

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-171900-
BUTLER AL-CHOCTAW AL-CLARKE AL-COASTAL ESCAMBIA FL-
COASTAL OKALOOSA FL-COASTAL SANTA ROSA FL-CONECUH AL-COVINGTON AL-
CRENSHAW AL-ESCAMBIA AL-GEORGE MS-GREENE MS-INLAND ESCAMBIA FL-
INLAND OKALOOSA FL-INLAND SANTA ROSA FL-LOWER BALDWIN AL-
LOWER MOBILE AL-MONROE AL-PERRY MS-STONE MS-UPPER BALDWIN AL-
UPPER MOBILE AL-WASHINGTON AL-WAYNE MS-WILCOX AL-
545 AM CDT THU JUN 17 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI AND THE EXTREME WESTERN PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS
MORNING...A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND
GUSTY WINDS. THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS IS NOT
ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.