Severe Thunderstorm Warning 37, NWS Mobile, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
310 PM CDT MON MAY 31 2004

.SHORT TERM...WILL WAIT UNTIL AS LATE AS POSSIBLE TO PUT OUT ZONES
THIS AFTERNOON AS ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA ARE EXPECTED
TO LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS.  UNSTABLE AIR WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE AREA INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LIS IN THE -6 TO -8 RANGE.  WILL
GO WITH LIKELY POPS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS SEVERAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA.  SURFACE FRONT IS WELL WEST OF
AREA AND WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY.  A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  THESE COMBINED WITH LEFT OVER
BOUNDARIES FROM TODAYS STORMS AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL SERVE AS A
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AGAIN ON TUESDAY.  WILL LEAVE IN
A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY AS WEAK FRONT APPROACHES AND
AIR REMAINS UNSTABLE.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN NEAR 2
INCHES ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  SOME OF THE HEAVIER
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IN ONE
TO TWO HOURS. WILL ALSO PUT IN PATCHY FOG ACROSS MOST OF AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT.  WILL LEAVE TEMPS AS THEY ARE.

&&

.EXTENDED...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS OUR
AREA ON THURSDAY AND THEN SLOWLY DISSIPATE ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
WILL LEAVE IN CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

 &&

.MARINE...WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARDS THE GFS SOLUTION THROUGH
FRIDAY AS WEAK FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY ACROSS THE MARINE AREA LATE
IN THE WEEK. CURRENT SFC MAP DOES SHOW WINDS HAVE BACKED
SOMEWHAT DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS LEADING ME TO BELIEVE THAT THIS
MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK LOOKS TO BE BETTER AS THE DAY CONTINUES. WINDS
WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AND
INCREASE IN SPEED. FOR FRIDAY WILL MENTION EXERCISE CAUTION FOR THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS THEN MENTION SCAS WILL BE LIKELY FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE...NO MAJOR CONCERNS.  MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE RAIN TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY.  A CHANCE OF RAIN WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK.  RH VALUES REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY TEMPS / POPS...

MOBILE     70 87 72 88 / 60 60 30 30
PENSACOLA  71 85 73 88 / 60 60 30 30
DESTIN     73 84 73 87 / 60 60 30 30
EVERGREEN  67 86 67 90 / 60 50 30 30
WAYNESBORO 66 86 66 89 / 40 40 30 30
CAMDEN     65 86 64 89 / 60 40 30 30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.

&&

01/16

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
625 AM CDT MON MAY 31 2004

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-312100-
BUTLER AL-CHOCTAW AL-CLARKE AL-COASTAL ESCAMBIA FL-
COASTAL OKALOOSA FL-COASTAL SANTA ROSA FL-CONECUH AL-COVINGTON AL-
CRENSHAW AL-ESCAMBIA AL-GEORGE MS-GREENE MS-INLAND ESCAMBIA FL-
INLAND OKALOOSA FL-INLAND SANTA ROSA FL-LOWER BALDWIN AL-
LOWER MOBILE AL-MONROE AL-PERRY MS-STONE MS-UPPER BALDWIN AL-
UPPER MOBILE AL-WASHINGTON AL-WAYNE MS-WILCOX AL-
625 AM CDT MON MAY 31 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI AND THE EXTREME WESTERN PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH STORMS
BEING MORE NUMEROUS IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
OUTLOOK AREA AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. ABUNDANT
MOISTURE WILL FEED INTO THE ADVANCING FRONT AS IT MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS
THE OUTLOOK AREA...RESULTING IN PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICES STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUTLOOKED
AREAS NORTH OF A WIGGINS...CITRONELLE...ANDALUSIA LINE WITH A SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE STORMS. THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
UNSTABLE BY AFTERNOON...WHILE STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS SUPPORT THE
POTENTIAL OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN
THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY.
OTHERWISE...NO OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND STORM SPOTTERS OVER INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND INTERIOR SOUTH ALABAMA MAY BE REQUIRED
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.