Alert archive / Florida / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2004
Severe Thunderstorm Warning 82, NWS Melbourne, FL
NWS Melbourne, FL issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 7, 2004, 3:12 PM EDT for Volusia County, Florida. It was in force for 48 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 7, 2004, 3:12 PM EDT (19:12 UTC)
- Expired
- Jul 7, 2004, 4:00 PM EDT
- In force
- 48 min
- Issued by
- NWS Melbourne, FL
- Area
- Counties, with a storm outline in the text
County Volusia County, FL
The radar
The Melbourne radar (KMLB), 118 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:13 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
Did it verify
Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.
Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.
The nearest sounding before it
Cape Canaveral, FL (KXMR), launched 12:00Z, 7.2 hours before the alert went out and 90 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 1966 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -23 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 804 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 13 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 29 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 34 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
000 WUUS52 KMLB 071912 SVRMLB FLC127-072000- BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 310 PM EDT WED JUL 7 2004 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... VOLUSIA COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA * UNTIL 400 PM EDT * AT 305 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM NEAR PORT ORANGE. THE STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY. * THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT... MUCH OF EASTERN VOLUSIA COUNTY THROUGH 400 PM EDT OTHER STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT INTERIOR VOLUSIA NEAR LAKE GEORGE. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58 MILES AN HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. IF THE STORM APPROACHES YOU...MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR. EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. LAT...LON 2927 8117 2883 8116 2880 8084 2934 8107 $$
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Melbourne, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 7, 2:22 PM EDT, 50 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jul 7, 2:22 PM EDT, 50 minutes before
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 222 PM EDT WED JUL 7 2004 .DISCUSSION... CONVECTION GETTING UNDERWAY MUCH EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. ACTIVE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY ALREADY PUSHING WELL INLAND WITH ASSOCIATED STORMS AND OUTFLOWS REACHING THE INTERIOR. STORMS ARE ALSO DEVELOPING CLOSER TO THE EAST COAST. A FEW STORMS HAVE ALREADY BECOME STRONG...AND 15Z CAPE SOUNDING HAS SOME SOME DRYING AT MID LEVELS WHICH MAY HELP ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM GUSTS. THROUGH TONIGHT...ANTICIPATE AN INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY INTO THIS EVENING AS NUMEROUS BOUNDARY COLLISIONS OCCUR. SUFFICIENTLY COOL AND DRY ALOFT FOR STRONG AND A FEW SEVERE STORMS THROUGH THE EVENING. HAVE INDICATED SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS NEAR THE EAST COAST FROM BREVARD COUNTY NORTHWARD WHERE THE BEST BOUNDARY COLLISIONS AND HIGHER PWATS EXIST. WEAK W-NW WIND COMPONENT THROUGH LOWER AND MID LEVELS SHOULD ALLOW STORMS TO DRIFT BACK ACROSS THE EAST COAST THIS EVENING. THU/FRI...NO CHANGE IN PAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS WITH WEAK SURFACE RIDGE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THU...LIFTING NORTHWARD TO CENTRAL PORTION OF THE AREA ON FRI. WITH WEAK STEERING WINDS THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY FOCUS INITIAL SCATTERED CONVECTION AS IT MOVES SLOWLY/STEADILY INLAND BY EARLY AFTERNOON. GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF CONVECTION SHOULD FAVOR THE INTERIOR DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...WITH CELL MOTION DUE TO PROPAGATION ALONG BOUNDARIES. SOME SLIGHT EWD STEERING FLOW MAY EXIST OVER THE NORTHERNMOST CWA THU...POSSIBLY ALLOWING A FEW STORMS TO WORK BACK/LINGER TOWARD THE NE COAST. BY FRIDAY...POSITION OF LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE SUGGESTS FASTER/GREATER INLAND PENETRATION OF EAST COAST SEA BREEZE THAN PRIOR DAYS WITH POSSIBLE ECSB/WCSB MERGER OVER THE INTERIOR LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. PRIMARY CONCERNS WL BE HEAVY RAIN AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING ALONG THE INTERSTATE FOUR CORRIDOR AND AREAS EASTWARD. WEEKEND/NEXT WEEK...ATLANTIC SURFACE RIDGE AXIS FORECAST TO MEANDER ACROSS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA. ONSHORE FLOW REGIME SOUTH OF RIDGE WILL FAVOR LOWEST POPS ALONG THE SE COAST WHERE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INLAND. THIS REGIME ALSO FAVORS GREATEST COVERAGE OF STORMS OVER THE NW INTERIOR WHERE INTERACTIONS OF NUMEROUS MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES WILL BE MOST PROMINENT. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...MID LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS SOUTHWARD ALONG/OFFSHORE U.S. EAST COAST...BUT SURFACE TROUGH AND UPPER SUPPORT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH/EAST OF THE REGION. MAIN AFFECTS SHOULD BE SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AND THUS RE-ESTABLISHMENT OF SW/W FLOW WITH MEAN RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN SEA BOARD...AND RETURN OF DEEPER MOISTURE LEVELS. INITIAL DISTURBANCE WITH ORIGINATIONS IN THE TROPICS PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE STATE EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...WITH A SECOND/STRONGER SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION AROUND DAY 7. UNTIL THEN WILL CONTINUE WITH CLIMATOLOGICAL POPS. && .MARINE...ATLANTIC RIDGE AXIS LOCATED SOUTH OF THE WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY THEN MOVE NORTH. GENERAL OFFSHORE GRADIENT FLOW WL BE REPLACED BY SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COAST INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING IN LATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS NEAR SHORE. ASIDE FROM HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH STORMS GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS WL CONTINUE WITH SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 75 92 75 90 / 40 40 20 30 MCO 76 93 73 92 / 30 50 30 40 MLB 75 91 75 89 / 40 30 20 20 VRB 73 91 75 90 / 40 30 20 20 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && SHORT TERM...GLITTO LONG TERM...PENDERGRAST
Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 7, 11:10 AM EDT, 4 hours 2 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 1110 AM EDT WED JUL 7 2004 AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147- 072000- COASTAL VOLUSIA-COCOA BEACH TO JUPITER INLET 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE- COCOA BEACH TO JUPITER INLET OUT TO 20 NM- FLAGLER BEACH TO COCOA BEACH 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE- FLAGLER BEACH TO COCOA BEACH OUT TO 20 NM-INDIAN RIVER- INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE- ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE- 1110 AM EDT WED JUL 7 2004 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. .DAY ONE... ...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT... STORMS AND OUTFLOWS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT WESTERN SECTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND INCREASE INTO THE MID AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME...THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL BEGIN TO FORM NEAR THE COAST AND DRIFT SLOWLY INLAND. STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON AS STORMS FROM THE INTERIOR COLLIDE WITH THE STORMS AND OUTFLOWS FROM THE EAST COAST BOUNDARY. STORM MOTION WILL BE A SLOW DRIFT TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST...ALLOWING STORMS TO MOVE BACK ACROSS THE EAST COAST INTO THIS EVENING. THE ATMOSPHERE IS SUFFICIENTLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO OCCUR...ESPECIALLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS NUMEROUS BOUNDARY COLLISIONS OCCUR. THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS FROM 40 TO 60 MPH...HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF A COIN AND FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING. MOVE INDOORS AT THE FIRST SIGN OF AN APPROACHING OR DEVELOPING STORM. DO NOT RETURN OUTDOORS UNTIL 30 MINUTES PAST THE LAST AUDIBLE THUNDER. ...FLOOD IMPACT... A FEW SPOTS IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA RECEIVED MORE THAN THREE INCHES OF RAIN TUESDAY...INCLUDING SOUTHERN OSCEOLA...CENTRAL ORANGE AND NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTIES. A FEW ADDITIONAL LOCATIONS HAVE RECEIVED SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN SINCE THE START OF JULY...MAKING THOSE AREAS MORE VULNERABLE TO FLOODING. STORMS WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHEAST AND PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WHICH MAY EXCEED TWO TO THREE INCHES IN SPOTS AGAIN TODAY. THIS WILL CAUSE STANDING WATER IN LOW LYING AREAS AND OTHER FLOOD PRONE LOCATIONS. DRIVING WILL ALSO BE HAZARDOUS DUE TO STANDING WATER ON RAIN SOAKED ROADS. ...MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT... FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS OF 35 KNOTS OR GREATER WILL BE POSSIBLE IN A FEW STORMS MOVING BACK ACROSS THE INTRACOASTAL AND NEAR SHORE WATERS FROM THE MAINLAND. THE HIGHEST COVERAGE IS EXPECTED IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARDS EACH AFTERNOON. INTERIOR SECTIONS WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST COVERAGE OF LATE AFTERNOON STORMS. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE IF NEEDED. GLITTO
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Jul 7, 1:02 PM EDT, 2 hours 10 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 102 PM EDT WED JUL 7 2004 FLZ144-071745- SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY- 102 PM EDT WED JUL 7 2004 ...STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...SMALL HAIL AND FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING APPROACHING LAKE COUNTY... AT 100 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF STRONG STORMS MOVING INTO WESTERN LAKE COUNTY. THE STORMS WERE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH AND WILL AFFECT AREAS FROM LEESBURG TO MASCOTTE THROUGH 2 PM. IF THE STORMS STRENGTHEN FURTHER...A WARNING WILL BE ISSUED. 52
Special weather statement, Jul 7, 1:30 PM EDT, 1 hour 42 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 130 PM EDT WED JUL 7 2004 FLZ053-071815- OSCEOLA- 130 PM EDT WED JUL 7 2004 ...STRONG STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS UP TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL CENTRAL OSCEOLA COUNTY... AT 125 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL OVER SAINT CLOUD...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH. LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM WHICH MAY EXPERIENCE STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL INCLUDE HARMONY. IF THE STORM STRENGTHENS FURTHER...A WARNING WILL BE ISSUED. PB
Special weather statement, Jul 7, 2:26 PM EDT, 46 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 226 PM EDT WED JUL 7 2004 FLZ047-147-071900- NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY- 226 PM EDT WED JUL 7 2004 ...STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS UP TO 45 MPH AND SMALL HAIL DEVELOPING ALONG THE SEA BREEZE IN BREVARD COUNTY... AT 220 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL OVER MERRITT ISLAND WILDLIFE REFUGE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH. ANOTHER STRONG STORM WAS DEVELOPING OVER MELBOURNE AND INDIATLANTIC. LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM WHICH MAY EXPERIENCE STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL INCLUDE THE KENNEDY SPACE CENTER AND MELBOURNE. STORMS WILL ALSO CONTAIN FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. IF THE STORM STRENGTHENS FURTHER...A WARNING WILL BE ISSUED. PB
Special weather statement, Jul 7, 2:31 PM EDT, 41 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 231 PM EDT WED JUL 7 2004 FLZ041-044-071915- INLAND VOLUSIA COUNTY-NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY- 233 PM EDT WED JUL 7 2004 ...STRONG STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS UP TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL OVER NORTHEASTERN LAKE COUNTY...AND MOVING INTO WESTERN VOLUSIA COUNTY... AT 230 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL OVER NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY NEAR PAISLEY...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH. THE STORM WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST VOLUSIA COUNTY BETWEEN DELAND AND BARBERVILLE IF THE STORM STRENGTHENS FURTHER...A WARNING WILL BE ISSUED. 52
The office that day
Everything else NWS Melbourne, FL issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 7, 2:12 PM EDT | Special Marine Warning | MLB | 2 hr | |
| Jul 7, 2:12 PM EDT | Special Marine Warning | MLB | 2 hr | |
| Jul 7, 2:33 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | MLB | Orange, Osceola | 42 min |
| Jul 7, 2:37 PM EDT | Special Marine Warning | MLB | 113 min | |
| Jul 7, 3:00 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | MLB | Brevard | 45 min |
| Jul 7, 3:24 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | MLB | Osceola | 51 min |
| Jul 7, 4:20 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | MLB | Brevard | 40 min |
| Jul 7, 5:11 PM EDT | Special Marine Warning | MLB | 49 min |
Nearby
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Florida, 2004Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2004
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.