Alert archive / Florida / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2004

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 76, NWS Melbourne, FL

July 6, 2004Orange County, Florida

NWS Melbourne, FL issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 6, 2004, 6:19 PM EDT for Orange County, Florida. It was in force for 41 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jul 6, 2004, 6:19 PM EDT (22:19 UTC)
Expired
Jul 6, 2004, 7:00 PM EDT
In force
41 min
Issued by
NWS Melbourne, FL
Area
Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Orange County, FL

The radar

The Melbourne radar (KMLB), 71 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:19 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Cape Canaveral, FL (KXMR), launched 12:00Z, 10.3 hours before the alert went out and 70 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Cape Canaveral, FL at 12:00Z on 2004-07-06Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 2588 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Cape Canaveral, FL at 12:00Z on 2004-07-06The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -3 square meters per square second.1939Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
2588 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-9 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
716 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
10 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-3 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
9 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WUUS52 KMLB 062219
SVRMLB
FLC095-062300-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
618 PM EDT TUE JUL 6 2004

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  CENTRAL ORANGE COUNTY
  IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA

* UNTIL 700 PM EDT

* AT 615 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OVER UNION PARK...OR ABOUT 3 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
  AZALEA PARK.  THE STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN...
  NEAR AZALEA PARK 

ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL DEVELOP SOUTH TOWARD ORLANDO 
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58 MILES AN
HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. IF
THE STORM APPROACHES YOU...MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR.

EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY.

LAT...LON 2855 8111 2861 8128 2846 8139 2839 8120

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Melbourne, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 6, 2:17 PM EDT, 4 hours 2 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 6, 2:17 PM EDT, 4 hours 2 minutes before
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
217 PM EDT TUE JUL 6 2004

.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION HAS BEEN LATER TO GET UNDERWAY THIS AFTERNOON THAN PAST
FEW DAYS. EAST COAST SEA BREEZE FORMATION IS SO FAR CONFINED TO FAR
SOUTHERN CWA. 15Z CAPE SOUNDING INDICATES LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW A
BIT HIGHER WHICH IS HELPING DELAY THE FORMATION...BUT WILL NOT BE
ENOUGH TO INHIBIT IT COMPLETELY.

THROUGH TONIGHT...COVERAGE OF STORMS SHOULD INCREASE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS MORE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS OCCUR. FLOW IN THE H85-H5
LAYER STILL QUITE WEAK AND MODELS INDICATE MEAN STEERING THROUGH
THIS LAYER WILL BE TOWARD THE S-SW AND HAVE PENCILED IN SLIGHTLY
HIGHER POPS OVER THE INTERIOR THAN E COAST. FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
HEAVY DOWNPOURS PRIMARY THREATS WITH THESE STORMS BUT SUFFICIENTLY
INSTABILITY EXISTS AGAIN FOR A FEW STRONG/MARGINAL SEVERE STORMS
ALONG BOUNDARY COLLISIONS LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

WED-FRI...THE RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY SUPPRESSED SOUTHWARD BY TROUGH
MOVING OFF THE EASTERN SEA BOARD WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA INTO THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. RESULTING WESTERLY FLOW
WILL BE LIGHT SO THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE ABLE TO FORM ALBEIT SOMEWHAT
DELAYED FROM USUAL MIDDAY FORMATION. THIS SHOULD FAVOR THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE PENINSULA FOR PCPN DURING BOTH INITIAL SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY FORMATION AND AND LATE AFTERNOON ACTIVITY THAT MOVES EAST
FROM INLAND SECTIONS. WILL STAY WITHIN THE SCATTERED RANGE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS. FRIDAY RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO LIFT BACK NORTHWARD
AND GREATEST RAIN CHANCES CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE INTERIOR WHERE
BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SHOULD BE A CONTINUATION OF SLOW MOVING STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN.

EXTENDED...RIDGE AXIS LIFTS INTO N FL SAT WITH A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE
MOVING BY SOUTH OF THE RIDGE. ONSHORE FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE AREA
WITH HIGH MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR SCT PCPN DURING THE WEEKEND. THIS
SHOULD GIVE SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS SOME MORNING RAIN CHANCES BEFORE
AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE INITIATION OCCURS INLAND ALONG THE SEA BREEZE.
THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS LOOKS TO REMAIN OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA EARLY
NEXT WEEK. GFS SHOWING ANOTHER MORE POTENT WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SEE NO NEED TO
VARY POPS FROM SCT COVERAGE EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...FORECAST DEPENDANT ON POSITION OF RIDGE AXIS. WITH AXIS
REMAINING SOUTH OF THE AREA NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL SPLIT FORECAST
COASTAL -VS- OFFSHORE TO ACCOUNT FOR BOTH SEA BREEZE AND FETCH
PROTECTION. MAIN BOATING CONCERN WILL BE ISOLATED STORMS/OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY GUSTS NEAR SHORE THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  75  93  73  92  /  20  30  20  40
MCO  74  94  73  93  /  30  40  20  40
MLB  75  92  74  91  /  20  40  20  40
VRB  73  92  74  91  /  20  40  20  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...GLITTO
LONG TERM...PENDERGRAST
Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 6, 10:52 AM EDT, 7 hours 27 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1052 AM EDT TUE JUL 6 2004

AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147-
062000-
COASTAL VOLUSIA-COCOA BEACH TO JUPITER INLET 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
COCOA BEACH TO JUPITER INLET OUT TO 20 NM-
FLAGLER BEACH TO COCOA BEACH 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
FLAGLER BEACH TO COCOA BEACH OUT TO 20 NM-INDIAN RIVER-
INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-
ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE-
1052 AM EDT TUE JUL 6 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL BEGIN TO FORM NEAR THE COAST EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL INITIALLY DRIFT SOUTH ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
THEN BEGIN TO DRIFT MORE SOUTHWEST BY LATE AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...DAYTIME HEATING AND BOUNDARIES
FROM SEA BREEZES AND OUTFLOWS WILL ALLOW SCATTERED STORMS...A FEW
STRONG...TO DEVELOP. THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED
TO OCCUR OVER THE INTERIOR SECTIONS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS FROM 40 TO 60 MPH...HAIL
UP TO THE SIZE OF A COIN AND FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING.

...FLOOD IMPACT...
SLOW MOVING AFTERNOON STORMS WILL DRIFT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS WHICH MAY EXCEED 2 TO 3
INCHES IN SPOTS. THIS WILL CAUSE STANDING WATER ON ROADS AND IN LOW
LYING AREAS...MAKING DRIVING HAZARDOUS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN AND CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARDS EACH AFTERNOON. INTERIOR
SECTIONS WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST COVERAGE OF LATE AFTERNOON STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE IF
NEEDED.

GLITTO

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jul 6, 4:44 PM EDT, 1 hour 35 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
444 PM EDT TUE JUL 6 2004

FLZ147-062130-
NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-
444 PM EDT TUE JUL 6 2004

...STORMS WITH EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING OVER NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY...

AT 437 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LIGHTNING DETECTION
EQUIPMENT INDICATED A STORM WITH EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING OVER MIMS...
MOVING SOUTH AT 5 MPH.

IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...TAKE SHELTER IN A BUILDING OR ENCLOSED
AUTOMOBILE. TREES AND OPEN SHELTERS FOUND ON A BEACH OR GOLF COURSE
OFFER NO PROTECTION.

BOATERS ON THE OPEN WATER ARE ESPECIALLY VULNERABLE TO THE DANGERS OF
LIGHTNING. GET TO SAFE HARBOR AT THE FIRST SIGN OF A LIGHTNING STORM
THEN SEEK SHELTER IN A BUILDING OR ENCLOSED VEHICLE AS QUICKLY AS
POSSIBLE.

CONSTRUCTION WORKERS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IN ENCLOSED VEHICLES. DO NOT
PUSH YOUR LUCK BY TRYING TO FINISH THE JOB WHILE THE STORM
APPROACHES.

28
Special weather statement, Jul 6, 5:12 PM EDT, 1 hour 7 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
512 PM EDT TUE JUL 6 2004

FLZ044-144-062145-
NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY-SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY-
512 PM EDT TUE JUL 6 2004

...STRONG STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS UP TO 50 MPH AND SMALL
HAIL CENTRAL LAKE COUNTY...

AT 507 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL OVER EUSTIS...
MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH. OTHER STRONG STORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS
NEAR LEESBURG.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM WHICH MAY EXPERIENCE STRONG WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL INCLUDE MID FLORIDA LAKES.

IF THE STORM STRENGTHENS FURTHER...A WARNING WILL BE ISSUED.
Special weather statement, Jul 6, 5:24 PM EDT, 55 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
524 PM EDT TUE JUL 6 2004

FLZ044-144-062200-
NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY-SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY-
524 PM EDT TUE JUL 6 2004

...STRONG STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS UP TO 50 MPH AND SMALL
HAIL CENTRAL LAKE COUNTY...

AT 520 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL SOUTHWEST OF
UMATILLA...HEADING SOUTH AT 5 MPH TOWARDS EUSTIS. THIS STORM MAY
ALSO PRODUCE FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING STRIKES.

IF THE STORM STRENGTHENS FURTHER...A WARNING WILL BE ISSUED.
Special weather statement, Jul 6, 5:42 PM EDT, 37 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
542 PM EDT TUE JUL 6 2004

FLZ044-062215-
NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY-
542 PM EDT TUE JUL 6 2004

...STRONG STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS UP TO 50 MPH AND SMALL
HAIL NORTHEASTERN LAKE COUNTY...

AT 541 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL 8 MILES
NORTHWEST OF PAISLEY ACROSS THE OCALA NATIONAL FOREST...MOVING NORTH
AT 10 MPH.

IF THE STORM STRENGTHENS FURTHER...A WARNING WILL BE ISSUED.
Special weather statement, Jul 6, 6:05 PM EDT, 14 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
605 PM EDT TUE JUL 6 2004

FLZ058-062245-
OKEECHOBEE-
605 PM EDT TUE JUL 6 2004

...STRONG STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH OVER
NORTHERN OKEECHOBEE COUNTY...

AT 558 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS OVER FORT DRUM.  THE
STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

IF THE STORM STRENGTHENS FURTHER...A WARNING WILL BE ISSUED.
Special weather statement, Jul 6, 6:06 PM EDT, 13 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
606 PM EDT TUE JUL 6 2004

FLZ041-062245-
INLAND VOLUSIA COUNTY-
606 PM EDT TUE JUL 6 2004

...STRONG STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AND
EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING OVER SOUTHWEST VOLUSIA COUNTY...

AT 558 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS OVER DE BARY.  THE STORM
WAS NEARLY STATIONARY. VERY HEAVY RAIN MAY CAUSE TEMPORARY FLOODING
OF SOME ROADWAYS.

The office that day

Everything else NWS Melbourne, FL issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 6, 4:35 PM EDTSpecial Marine WarningMLB55 min
Jul 6, 5:02 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMLBBrevard43 min
Jul 6, 6:45 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMLBOkeechobee30 min
Jul 6, 7:11 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMLBOsceola34 min
Jul 6, 7:48 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMLBOsceola42 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Florida, 2004Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2004

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.