Severe Thunderstorm Warning 7, NWS Milwaukee, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
300 AM CST FRI MAR 5 2004

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS IS STILL ON PRECIPITATION
TRENDS/FLOODING CONCERN TODAY.

FLOODING POTENTIAL STILL IN PLACE WITH MANY AREA RIVERS EXPECTED TO
RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. WILL LEAVE WATCH GOING FOR TODAY.
FURTHER DETAILS IN MKEFFAMKE PRODUCT.

IMPRESSIVE H8 SPEED/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH COUPLING OF
UPPER JETS HAS PROVIDED PLENTY OF FORCING TO GO ALONG WITH THE
PLENTIFUL MIXING RATIOS OF 6-8 G/KG. ISENTROPIC PLOTS SHOW THE STRONG
UPGLIDE. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPWARD MOTION SHIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF
CWA BY 12Z WITH ISENTROPIC SINKING/DRYING AFTER 12Z. DRY SLOT ON THE
WAY AS IS 988MB SFC LO AND SFC WRM FNT. STG NEG TILT SHORT WAVE YET
TO COME WILL KEEP PCPN CHCS GOING BEYOND 12Z. APPCH OF SAID VORT
STILL GENERATING GOOD COVERAGE OF PCPN ACRS IA AND THIS IS TICKETED
FOR CWA THIS MORNING. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS NOT LATCHING ON TO ANY CAPE...
THO LIGHTNING ACTIVITY INCREASING ACRS IOWA WITH BANDS OF CONVECTION
ON LEADING EDGE OF PVA. OVERALL STRENGTH OF SYS AND TRACK OF SFC LO
THRU SRN WI PER RISE/FALL COUPLET...DOES BRING A BRIEF WINDOW OF
INSTAB/HIGHER DEW POINTS INTO CWA. WILL MENTION CHC OF T FOR MRNG
HRS. GIVEN POSN OF WRMFNT WILL ALSO HAVE AREAS FOG TO CONTEND WITH AS
WELL.

WILL MAINTAIN CHC OF SHSN OR MIXY RASN GOING TO SLL -SN FOR TNGT AS
H5-H7 TROF AXIS CROSSES CWA ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL H8-SFC CYCLONIC FLOW
EVIDENT AS WELL.

FAIRLY STRONG SHORT WAVE CROSSES AREA SAT NGT WITH ACCOMPANYING
PVA. WILL HAVE HIGH END CHC POPS WITH THIS. GFS TRIES TO ROTATE A 30
A SECONDARY 30 UNIT VORT ACRS CWA DURG SUNDAY. ETA SHOWING A MORE
CHANNELIZED VORT STRUCTURE WITH MUCH LESS PCPN POTENTIAL. WILL
KEEP GOING CHC FOR NOW.

&&

.MKX...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH TODAY ENTIRE CWA.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
439 AM CST FRI MAR 5 2004

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-061100-
COLUMBIA-DANE-DODGE-FOND DU LAC-GREEN-GREEN LAKE-IOWA-JEFFERSON-
KENOSHA-LAFAYETTE-MARQUETTE-MILWAUKEE-OZAUKEE-RACINE-ROCK-SAUK-
SHEBOYGAN-WALWORTH-WASHINGTON-WAUKESHA-
439 AM CST FRI MAR 5 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING WILL CAUSE
MANY RIVERS TO RISE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...SOME ABOVE THEIR FLOOD
STAGE.  PEOPLE IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLOODING OCCUR.  MONITOR OUR HYDROLOGIC STATEMENTS FOR UPDATES
ON THE STATUS OF AREA RIVERS.  A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THE MORNING...WITH ALL RAIN DIMINISHING QUICKLY BY MID DAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
AND AGAIN MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.  A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION ARE
POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER GROUPS WILL BE NEEDED TO REPORT ANY FLOODING ACROSS THE
AREA.

DAVIS