Tornado Warning 25, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
350 AM EDT SAT AUG 14 2004

.SHORT TERM...MAIN CONCERN WILL BE RAINFALL AND WINDS ASCD WITH
CHARLEY AS IT LIFTS THROUGH THE ERN PORTION OF THE STATE TODAY. WITH
TRACK JUST WEST OF THE CWA WILL LIKELY SEE QUITE HEFTY AMOUNTS RAIN
ALONG WITH WINDS AT LEAST GUSTY TO AROUND HURRICANE STRENGTH. WILL
LEAVE FFA IN PLACE AS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TO GET UPWARDS OF 5
INCHES. HAVE OPTED TO USE HPC QPF GUIDANCE ALMOST VERBATIM. WILL
ALSO LEAVE UP INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING WITH POSSIBILITY OF
MAINLY GUSTS TO HURRICANE STRENGTH BUT CUD SEE BRIEF PERIOD OF
SUSTAINED ACROSS FAR SW ZONES.

CHARLEY LIFTS NE OUT OF THE CWA THIS EVNG WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS
BUT BOTH GFS AND ETA MAINTAIN SHEAR VORT LOBE ALONG THE COAST
THROUGH MON WITH STALLED SFC FNT JUST TO OUR WEST. THIS WUD WARRANT
CONTINUED CHANCE FOR PCPN THROUGH MON AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM...GFS SHOWS UPPER TROF SLIDING THROUGH THE CWA AND
LIFTING A BIT TO THE NE BY LATE TUE WITH SOME DRYING BUT THEN ENOUGH
HEATING FOR SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT FOR BOTH TUE AND WED. TYPICAL
AFTN TYPE CONVECTION THEN BUT MAYBE ONLY OF ISOLATED NATURE AS UPPER
FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL.

&&

.AVIATION...OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH AN INCREASE IN
SHOWERS AND TSTMS AS CHARLEY CHARGES THRU E NC THIS AFTN AND
EVENING. SFC WINDS WILL INCREASE BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN
ASSOCIATED WITH CHARLEY. WINDS IN EXCESS OF 35 KT PSBL BY MID TO
LATE AFTN INTO THE EVENING.

 &&

.MARINE...AT 05Z SW WINDS 10-15 KT WITH SEAS 5 FT OVER THE SOUTHERN
WATERS AND 3 FT NORTH OF HATTERAS. A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT
FOR THE COASTAL WATERS FROM SURF CITY TO OREGON INLET. EXPECT WINDS
AND SEAS TO INCREASE LATE THIS MORNING FOR SOUTHERN WATERS AND MID
TO LATE AFTN FOR WATERS N OF CAPE HATTERAS. ALL MARINE INTERESTS
SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE CHARLEY. WITH
CHARLEY ACCELERATING NE EXPECT WINDS TO DROP OFF BELOW SCA BY OR
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THEN NEXT PROBLEM IS IF AND WHEN FRONT MAKES
IT THRU. BEST GUESS AT THIS POINT IS MONDAY AFTN IT WILL MAKE IT
TO THE COASTAL WATERS AND HANG UP. THE GOOD NEWS IS THE WINDS WILL
BE FAIRLY LIGHT, THE BAD NEWS IS THERE WILL LIKELY BE PLENTY OF
SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...HURRICANE WARNING FOR NCZ045>047-NCZ080-081
INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING FOR NCZ029-044-079-NCZ090>092
FLOOD WATCH ALL COUNTIES UNTIL 10 PM.
TORNADO WATCH ALL COUNTIES UNTIL 1 PM.
MARINE...HURRICANE WARNING SOUTH OF OREGON INLET.
TROPICAL STORM WARNING NORTH OF OREGON INLET.
&&

MLF/WS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
436 AM EDT SAT AUG 14 2004

NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098-103-104-150836-
BEAUFORT NC-CARTERET NC-CRAVEN NC-DUPLIN NC-GREENE NC-JONES NC-
LENOIR NC-MAINLAND DARE NC-MAINLAND HYDE NC-MARTIN NC-ONSLOW NC-
OUTER BANKS DARE NC-OUTER BANKS HYDE NC-PAMLICO NC-PITT NC-
TYRRELL NC-WASHINGTON NC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ATLANTIC BEACH...BAYBORO...BEAUFORT...
BELHAVEN...BEULAVILLE...BUXTON...CEDAR ISLAND...COLUMBIA...DUCK...
EMERALD ISLE...ENGELHARD...FRISCO...GREENVILLE...HARKERS ISLAND...
HATTERAS VILLAGE...HAVELOCK...JACKSONVILLE...KENANSVILLE...
KILL DEVIL HILLS...KINSTON...KITTY HAWK...LA GRANGE...MANNS HARBOR...
MANTEO...MOREHEAD CITY...NAGS HEAD...NEW BERN...
NORTH TOPSAIL BEACH...OCRACOKE...ORIENTAL...PLYMOUTH...SNOW HILL...
SWANQUARTER...SWANSBORO...TRENTON...WALLACE...WARSAW...
WASHINGTON AND WILLIAMSTON
436 AM EDT SAT AUG 14 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY BY THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE REGION HURRICANE CHARLEY LIFTS NORTH ACROSS EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA. IN ADVANCE OF THE HURRICANE...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE OUTER RAIN BANDS. THE HEAVY RAINS COULD PRODUCE
LOCALIZED FLOODING BY LATE AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH
SEVERE LIMITS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS MORNING FOR POSSIBLE TORNADIC
ACTIVITY IN ADVANCE OF HURRICANE CHARLEY.

MLF