Severe Thunderstorm Warning 97, NWS Miami, FL

SOUTH FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
240 PM EDT SAT SEP 18 2004

.DISCUSSION...ALREADY RATHER DRY ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AS I WRITE
THIS. VISIBLE SATELLITE PAINTS RATHER CLEAR PICTURE OF CURRENT
SITUATION. NORTHERN EXTENT OF CU FIELD NEAR ORLANDO ASSOCIATED WITH
WEAK COLD FRONT DRIFTING SOUTHWARD TODAY. LIGHT WINDS AND SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S LEADING TO HEALTHY SEABREEZE MARCHING
INLAND AS TEMPS RISE INTO THE LOWER 90S OVER THE INTERIOR.
THUS...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNSHINE AT THE BEACHES FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO INTERIOR LOCATIONS
AND ONLY THE MORE INLAND OF THE METRO ZONES.

DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO INFILTRATE THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. GFS
DEPICTS THIS BEST...BUT 12KM ETA WANTS TO DEVELOP A BIT MORE
CONVECTION ALONG THE GULF COAST SEABREEZE. WILL LEAVE LOW POPS AS IS
THOUGH SINCE I DONT SEE A LOT OF REASON TO LEND CREDIBILITY TO THE
LATTER SCENARIO.

A TINY PIECE OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE FORMERLY
KNOWN AS IVAN HINTED AT IN GFS AND ETA AS BREAKING OFF AND HEADING
SOUTHWARD TOWARD SOUTH FLORIDA BY MONDAY. THIS COULD INCREASE POPS
SLIGHTLY AND THIS FORECAST PACKAGE SHOWS A SLIGHTLY ENHANCED CHANCE
OF PRECIP FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON.

DRIER AIR MAY REACH SOUTH FLORIDA BY LATE WEEK IF NORTHEAST WIND
PERSISTS...BUT THIS IS DEPENDANT UPON JEANNE (IN WHATEVER FORM SHE
CHOOSES) REMAINING BETWEEN HISPANIOLA AND BERMUDA.
&&

.MARINE...IF NORTHEAST WINDS DEVELOP AND PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK...WOULD EXPECT COMBINATION OF WIND WAVE AND SWELL TO
BEGIN IMPACTING THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST FROM MONDAY ON. UNTIL
THEN...AND IN THE GULF OF MEXICO BOATING CONDITIONS WILL BE GOOD.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO FIRE CONCERNS.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 75 89 72 87 / 00 10 10 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 78 89 74 88 / 00 10 10 30
MIAMI           77 90 75 89 / 00 10 10 30
NAPLES          75 90 72 89 / 00 10 10 20
&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

RRH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
418 AM EDT SAT SEP 18 2004

FLZ068-072-074-181600-
BROWARD METROPOLITAN-DADE METROPOLITAN-PALM BEACH EASTERN-
418 AM EDT SAT SEP 18 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

...MODERATE RISK OF WATERSPOUTS ATLANTIC WATERS THIS MORNING...

THE COMBINATION OF THE LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ALONG THE EAST
COAST METRO AREAS...AND THE LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY THIS MORNING WAS HELPING TO
CREATE A LINE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ATLANTIC
WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD
POSE THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP WATERSPOUTS. THEREFORE...THERE IS A
MODERATE RISK OF WATERSPOUTS OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS OF SOUTH
FLORIDA THIS MORNING.

THE THREAT OF WATERSPOUTS SHOULD END AROUND NOON TODAY...AS THE WINDS
WILL BECOME MOSTLY EAST TO NORTHEAST OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ALLOWING THE
CONVERGENCE LINE TO DISSIPATE.

IF YOU SEE A WATERSPOUT...MOVE AT 90 DEGREES AWAY FROM THE ITS
PATH...AND REPORT IT TO THE LOCAL COAST GUARD. THEY WILL REPORT THE
INFORMATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI FLORIDA.

NO OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND DETAILED GRAPHICS CAN BE FOUND ON THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB SITE AT MIAMIWEATHER.INFO. FOR
INFORMATION IN SPANISH, VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT ELTIEMPOENMIAMI.INFO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

...RIP CURRENTS AND HIGH SURF POSSIBLE EAST COAST BY MONDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES THROUGH
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AS TROPICAL STORM JEANNE MOVES NORTHWARD TO
JUST NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS ISLANDS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
NORTHEAST SWELLS TO BUILD INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA
LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AND ALLOW FOR HIGH
SURF TO AFFECT THE PALM BEACH WATERS BY MONDAY.

THE WINDS WILL ALSO BE FROM THE EAST TO NORTHEAST DIRECTION BY MONDAY
AND WILL REMAIN EAST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THEREFORE...RIP CURRENTS COULD AFFECT ALL OF THE EAST COAST BEACHES
OF SOUTH FLORIDA FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

NO OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

FLZ063-066-067-069>071-073-075-181600-
EASTERN COLLIER-GLADES-HENDRY-MAINLAND MONROE-PALM BEACH WESTERN-
WESTERN BROWARD-WESTERN COLLIER-WESTERN DADE-
418 AM EDT SAT SEP 18 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...

THE EAST AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZES SHOULD DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING
OR EARLY AFTERNOON AND PUSH INLAND INTO THE INTERIOR AREAS OF SOUTH
FLORIDA. THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY WILL BE ISOLATED...BUT
ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL HAVE CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTING STRIKES, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 30
MPH. IF YOU SEE LIGHTNING OR HEAR THUNDER MOVE INSIDE UNTIL THE
STORMS HAVE PASSED.

NO OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND DETAILED GRAPHICS CAN BE FOUND ON THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB SITE AT MIAMIWEATHER.INFO. FOR
INFORMATION IN SPANISH, VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT ELTIEMPOENMIAMI.INFO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

BAXTER