Severe Thunderstorm Warning 89, NWS Miami, FL

SOUTH FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
210 PM EDT TUE AUG 17 2004

.DISCUSSION...TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA...AT LEAST INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL ONLY
BRIEFLY WEAKEN SUNDAY OR MONDAY. SURFACE RIDGE WILL RESIDE MOSTLY OVER
CENTRAL FLORIDA MAINTAINING EAST/SOUTHEAST LOW-LEVEL FLOW OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA. SUBTLE DAY-TO-DAY DIFFERENCES IN WIND FLOW...PRECIPITABLE WATER
AND STABILITY WILL DICTATE EXACTLY WHERE AND WHEN CONVECTION WILL FORM.
INTERIOR AND WEST ZONES WILL CERTAINLY RECEIVE THE LIONS SHARE OF STORMS
EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING IN THE EASTERLY FLOW REGIME. WILL KEEP POPS
HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY THOSE AREAS. WILL BUMP UP DAYTIME POPS TO CLIMO
EAST COAST METRO AREAS (HIGH CHANCE) AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEXT
48 HOURS LOOK CLOSER TO NORMAL OR A BIT HIGHER. WILL KEEP ISOLATED
ACTIVITY FOR OVERNIGHT HOURS GIVEN ONSHORE FLOW. SHOULD SEE CONVECTION
INITIATING EARLY NEAR THE EAST COAST THEN SPREADING INLAND AND
INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BOTH WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY...AND PERHAPS FRIDAY. SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND SO WILL KEEP POPS A BIT BELOW NORMAL THEN.
MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.MARINE...EAST/SOUTHEAST FLOW LESS THAN 15 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO PROBLEMS/CONCERNS.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 78 90 78 90 / 20 50 20 50
FORT LAUDERDALE 80 89 80 90 / 20 30 20 30
MIAMI           80 90 80 90 / 20 50 20 50
NAPLES          75 90 76 91 / 30 60 30 60
&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
335 AM EDT TUE AUG 17 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA

FLZ063-066>075-172200-
BROWARD METROPOLITAN-DADE METROPOLITAN-EASTERN COLLIER-GLADES-HENDRY-
MAINLAND MONROE-PALM BEACH EASTERN-PALM BEACH WESTERN-
WESTERN BROWARD-WESTERN COLLIER-WESTERN DADE-
335 AM EDT TUE AUG 17 2004

.DAY ONE...TODAY

...MODERATE RISK OF LIGHTNING MAINLY INTERIOR...
...HEAT INDEX 100 TO 105 ALONG GULF AND ATLANTIC COAST...
...HEAT INDEX 105 TO 110 INTERIOR...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE EAST AND WEST COAST
SEA BREEZES AND MOVE SLOWLY TO THE WEST. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD
BECOME STRONG OVER THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA. THE THREAT
WILL BE FOR STRONG GUSTY SURFACE WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 90S NEAR THE COAST, TO SOME MID 90S INLAND,
COMBINED WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY, WILL PRODUCE HEAT INDEX VALUES OF
100 TO 105 AT THE COAST WITH 105 TO 110 HEAT INDEX READINGS IN THE
INTERIOR.

NO OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND DETAILED GRAPHICS CAN BE FOUND ON THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB SITE AT MIAMIWEATHER.INFO. FOR
INFORMATION IN SPANISH, VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT ELTIEMPOENMIAMI.INFO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.