Severe Thunderstorm Warning 73, NWS Miami, FL

SOUTH FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
215 PM EDT MON AUG 2 2004

.DISCUSSION...MORNING UPPER AIR CAME IN WITH WARMING ALOFT VERSUS 24
HOURS AGO DUE TO RELEASE OF LATENT HEAT WITH EXTENSIVE ACTIVITY ON
SUNDAY. BUT WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND CONTINUED INSTABILITY
CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN FIRING UP JUST LATER IN THE DAY. IN RESPONSE TO
T.S. ALEX TO OUR NORTH AND UPPER/SURFACE RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH DEEP
SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW CONTINUES TO DOMINATE SOUTH FLORIDA WEATHER.
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS OF TWO TO FOUR INCHES AND ISOLATED SPOTS
IN EXCESS OF FOUR INCHES PROMPTED A FLOOD WATCH FOR TODAY AND THIS
EVENING. WE HAVE KEPT THAT GOING AND WILL WAIT TO SEE WHAT ACTUALLY
TRANSPIRES THIS PM BEFORE MAKING DECISION WHETHER TO EXTEND OR ALLOW
TO EXPIRE AT 00Z. AT ANY RATE, CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ANY FLOODING
THAT DOES OCCUR WILL BE LOCALIZED AND ONLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS. REASONING IS THAT RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION
DURING PAST SEVERAL MONTHS HAS BEEN MUCH BELOW NORMAL WITH WET
ACTIVITY ONLY STARTING RECENTLY. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE REMAINS AT
AROUND 4 TO 6 INCHES FOR A SIX HOUR PERIOD AND THIS WILL ONLY BE
ACHIEVED DURING THE PM CONVECTION. OVERALL PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. UPSTREAM TROUGH WHICH WILL BE DIGGING OVER THE SE
U.S. WILL PICK UP ALEX DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS WILL KEEP DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE AND SW FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND
THUS HIGH POPS WILL CONTINUE. FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD, GFS WANTS TO
DIG TROUGH AND DRAW DRIER AIRMASS SOUTH. HOWEVER, DEEP LAYER SW FLOW
CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY SO AGAIN WITH INSTABILITY WOULD SUGGEST
SOUTHEAST COAST STILL MOST VULNERABLE. ANOTHER FLY IN THE OINTMENT
IS THAT GFS WANTS TO DEVELOP ANOTHER LOW FROM THE WAVE CURRENTLY
EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. AS THIS LOW APPROACHES THE BAHAMAS,
ANOTHER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE SE U.S. AND BEGINS TO TURN THE LOW TO
THE NORTH. THIS BUILDS A RIDGE BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS AND WE BEGIN
TO SEE A LOW LEVEL NE FLOW TO DEVELOP SUNDAY AND MONDAY. BUT THIS
ENTIRE SCENARIO IS COMPLETELY DEPENDANT ON THE LOW FORMING IN THE
FIRST PLACE AND THE GFS IS NOTORIOUS TO SPIN UP NONEXISTENT LOWSN OR
AT LEAST TOO FAST. SO SINCE THIS IS DAYS 6 AND 7, WILL HOLD OFF ON
MAKING ANY MAJOR CHANGES AND WILL JUST TREND THE POPS DOWNWARD.
&&

.MARINE...WINDS TO REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KT OUT OF THE SW THROUGH THE
FORECAST CYCLE SO SEAS WILL REMAIN AT 4 FEET OR LESS.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 73 89 73 89 / 40 80 40 70
FORT LAUDERDALE 73 90 74 90 / 40 80 40 70
MIAMI           74 90 75 91 / 40 80 40 70
NAPLES          76 87 77 89 / 30 70 20 50
&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT FOR ZONES 63-66>75.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1113 AM EDT MON AUG 2 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA

FLZ063-066>075-030000-
BROWARD METROPOLITAN-DADE METROPOLITAN-EASTERN COLLIER-GLADES-HENDRY-
MAINLAND MONROE-PALM BEACH EASTERN-PALM BEACH WESTERN-
WESTERN BROWARD-WESTERN COLLIER-WESTERN DADE-
1114 AM EDT MON AUG 2 2004

.DAY ONE...TODAY

...MODERATE RISK OF LIGHTNING AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH 8 PM...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST
LATE THIS MORNING AND AREAS WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE WILL GRADUALLY
BECOME WIDE SPREAD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THEY GENERALLY MOVE
OUT OF THE WEST AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH. THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING, PARTICULARLY IN
AREAS HIT THE HARDEST DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS IN WESTERN
COLLIER, AND THE METRO AREAS OF PALM BEACH TO MIAMI DADE COUNTIES.
STRONG WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 40 MPH ARE ALSO POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR AND EAST METRO AREAS. ALTHOUGH THE
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE IS NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY, THE THREAT OF
STRONGER STORMS COULD INCREASE IF IT DOES.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND DETAILED GRAPHICS CAN BE FOUND ON THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB SITE AT MIAMIWEATHER.INFO. FOR
INFORMATION IN SPANISH, VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT ELTIEMPOENMIAMI.INFO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

 THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE THREAT OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

PS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
158 PM EDT MON AUG 2 2004

AMZ630-650-651-670-671-FLZ067>075-GMZ656-657-676-021900-
BISCAYNE BAY-BROWARD METROPOLITAN-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL OUT 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
EASTERN COLLIER-
GULF WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM 20
TO 60 NM-MAINLAND MONROE-MIAMI-DADE METROPOLITAN-PALM BEACH EASTERN-
PALM BEACH WESTERN-
WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL EXTENDING FROM 20 NM
TO THE TERRITORIAL WATERS OF THE BAHAMAS-
WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM 20
NM TO 60 NM-WESTERN BROWARD-WESTERN COLLIER-WESTERN MIAMI DADE-
158 PM EDT MON AUG 2 2004

...STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA...

AT 158 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE
OF NUMEROUS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS  STRETCHING FROM WESTERN
PALM BEACH COUNTY SOUTHWEST THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN HENDRY...CENTRAL
COLLIER..AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF COLLIER COUNTY. THE LEADING
EDGE OF THIS LINE IS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST
AROUND 25 TO 30 MPH. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS TAKING PLACE AHEAD OF
THE LINE AND ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM
AHEAD OF THE LINE ARE ALREADY AFFECTING THE PALM BEACH METRO AREAS.
THE OUTFLOW ITSELF WILL BE REACHING THE METRO AREAS FROM METRO PALM
BEACH SOUTHWARD AFTER 230 TO 300 PM. THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY OF
THIS ACTIVITY...INCLUDING STORMS MOVING ACROSS THE METRO AREAS AHEAD
OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND BRIEF PERIODS OF LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.
DESPITE THE MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS...LOCALIZED FLOODING IS AGAIN
POSSIBLE AS STORMS REGENERATE AND MOVE ACROSS THE SAME AREAS. THIS
THREAT IS GREATEST ACROSS WESTERN COLLIER AND THE EAST COAST METRO
AREAS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON AUG 2 2004

AMZ630-650-651-670-671-FLZ067>075-GMZ656-657-676-021900-
BISCAYNE BAY-BROWARD METROPOLITAN-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL OUT 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
EASTERN COLLIER-
GULF WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM 20
TO 60 NM-MAINLAND MONROE-MIAMI-DADE METROPOLITAN-PALM BEACH EASTERN-
PALM BEACH WESTERN-
WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL EXTENDING FROM 20 NM
TO THE TERRITORIAL WATERS OF THE BAHAMAS-
WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM 20
NM TO 60 NM-WESTERN BROWARD-WESTERN COLLIER-WESTERN MIAMI DADE-
200 PM EDT MON AUG 2 2004

...STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA...

AT 200 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE
OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS  STRETCHING FROM
WESTERN PALM BEACH COUNTY SOUTHWEST THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN
HENDRY...CENTRAL COLLIER..AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF COLLIER
COUNTY. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS LINE IS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING
EAST SOUTHEAST AROUND 25 TO 30 MPH. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS TAKING
PLACE AHEAD OF THE LINE AND ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM AHEAD OF THE LINE ARE ALREADY AFFECTING THE PALM BEACH
METRO AREAS. THE OUTFLOW ITSELF WILL BE REACHING THE METRO AREAS
FROM METRO PALM BEACH SOUTHWARD AFTER 230 TO 300 PM. THE MAIN THREAT
WITH ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY...INCLUDING STORMS MOVING ACROSS THE METRO
AREAS AHEAD OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...WILL BE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS
OF 40 MPH AND BRIEF PERIODS OF LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. DESPITE
THE MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS...LOCALIZED FLOODING IS AGAIN POSSIBLE AS
STORMS REGENERATE AND MOVE ACROSS THE SAME AREAS. THIS THREAT IS
GREATEST ACROSS WESTERN COLLIER AND THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
250 PM EDT MON AUG 2 2004

FLZ068-071>075-022000-
BROWARD METROPOLITAN-MAINLAND MONROE-MIAMI-DADE METROPOLITAN-
PALM BEACH EASTERN-WESTERN BROWARD-WESTERN MIAMI DADE-
250 PM EDT MON AUG 2 2004

...STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA...

AT 250 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE
OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHING FROM
NORTHEASTERN PALM BEACH COUNTY SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTHWEST BROWARD...
SOUTHEASTERN COLLIER...AND INTO THE NEAR SHORE WATERS OF COLLIER AND
MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS LINE IS AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH. ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT IS TAKING PLACE AHEAD OF THE LINE AND ALONG THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY. THE OUTFLOW ITSELF WILL BE REACHING THE METRO AREAS FROM
BROWARD SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 315 AND 400 PM. THE MAIN THREAT WITH
ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY...INCLUDING STORMS MOVING ACROSS THE METRO AREAS
AHEAD OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...WILL BE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40
MPH AND BRIEF PERIODS OF LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. DESPITE THE
MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS...LOCALIZED FLOODING IS AGAIN POSSIBLE AS
STORMS REGENERATE AND MOVE ACROSS THE SAME AREAS. THIS THREAT IS
GREATEST ACROSS METRO BROWARD AND MIAMI DADE COUNTIES.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
356 PM EDT MON AUG 2 2004

FLZ071>074-022100-
BROWARD METROPOLITAN-MIAMI-DADE METROPOLITAN-WESTERN
BROWARD-WESTERN MIAMI DADE-
356 PM EDT MON AUG 2 2004

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...

AT 355 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE
OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHING FROM NORTHEASTERN BROWARD COUNTY
SOUTHWEST MIAMI-DADE COUNTY. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS LINE IS AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH.
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS TAKING PLACE AHEAD OF THE LINE AND ALONG
THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE WIND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND BRIEF PERIODS OF LOCALLY VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL. DESPITE THE MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS...LOCALIZED FLOODING IS
AGAIN POSSIBLE AS STORMS REGENERATE AND MOVE ACROSS THE SAME AREAS.
THIS THREAT IS GREATEST ACROSS METRO BROWARD AND MIAMI DADE COUNTIES.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
358 PM EDT MON AUG 02 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     DOWNBURST        RIVIERA BEACH           26.78N 80.08W
08/02/2004                   PALM BEACH         FL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            POWER LINES DOWN AND ROOF DAMAGE TO DUPLEX AT 10TH ST AND
            AUSTRALIAN.

&&

AM