Severe Thunderstorm Warning 52, NWS Miami, FL

SOUTH FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
235 PM EDT SAT JUL 10 2004

.DISCUSSION...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS S FLORIDA
WITH THE 12Z MFL SOUNDING UP TO 1.44 INCHES PWAT AND EYW AT 1.89
INCHES. LATEST GFP ANALYSIS SHOWING OVER TWO INCHES NOW AT EYW AND
ABOUT 1.85 AT MFL AND 1.7 AT LAKE OKEE. THIS INDICATIVE OF BETTER
COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING THIS PM. IN FACT, LOCAL GRASS FIRE
INDUCED A TSRA THAT MOVED W AND NOW SET OFF OUTFLOW WITH NEW
CONVECTION FORMING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY NEAR THE FIRE ITSELF. ALL OF
THIS NOT MUCH HELP FOR THE E CST DRY CONDITIONS BUT AT LEAST IT IS A
START. UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR N CENTRAL FLA WILL
RETREAT WWD TONIGHT AND SUN. BOTH GFS AND MESO-ETA NOW IN AGREEMENT
THAT MOISTURE WILL SWING AROUND THE W PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH AND MOVE
S INTO OUR REGION FOR A FURTHER INCREASE IN CONVECTION FOR SUN. SO
HAVE KEPT THAT TREND GOING. AS THIS RIDGE CONTINUES W, THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR DEEPENING TROUGH TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WITH
SIGNIFICANT HT FALLS OVER S FLA BY MIDWEEK. THIS IN TURN WILL SHOVE
THE SFC RIDGE BACK TO THE S TO A POSITION NEAR THE SRN TIP OF THE
PENINSULA. ALL OF THIS WILL RESULT IN DEEP W TO SW FLOW. STILL, THE
GFS KEEPS US AT BELOW CLIMO POPS. THIS IN DOUBT AS EVEN WITH PWATS
AT AROUND 1.6-1.7 INCHES THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KICK OFF
CONVECTION THAT WOULD AFFECT E CST BEGINNING ON TUE BUT ESPECIALLY
WED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TUE WILL BE THE TRANSITION PERIOD
WITH FLOW MORE SOUTHERLY. HENCE, MORE OF THE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
BE CENTERED NEAR THE LAKE AND PALM BEACH COUNTY BUT WILL LET LATER
SHIFTS DECIDE THIS FATE. AT ANY RATE, HAVE CONTINUED TO SHOW AN
INCREASE IN POPS AND HAVE KEPT THEM IN CHC CAT BUT BUMPED THEM UP TO
50 PERCENT. FEEL THAT THIS IS WARRANTED WITH GOOD DESTABILIZATION
TAKING PLACE AND SW FLOW. IN FACT, AS UPPER RIDGE DOES CONT TO MOVE
W, WE GO TO NW FLOW ALOFT BY THE END OF THE WEEK TOWARDS THU AND
THIS WOULD TEND TO EVEN FURTHER DESTABILIZATION. TIME WILL TELL, BUT
LET US KEEP OUR FINGERS CROSSED THAT THIS AT LEAST GIVES US A BETTER
CHANCE FOR BADLY NEEDED RAIN ALONG THE E CST.
&&

.MARINE...SFC RIDGE MEANDERING AROUND THE AREA WILL KEEP WINDS AT 10
KT OR LESS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND THUS KEEP THE SEAS NEAR
CALM CONDITIONS.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SFC DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH SO NO
ADVISORIES BUT SOIL AS WELL AS VEGETATION WILL CONT TO BE DRY UNTIL
A GOOD INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIP OCCURS NEXT WEEK.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 77 91 76 90 / 10 30 20 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 80 90 79 90 / 10 30 20 30
MIAMI           81 92 79 90 / 10 30 20 30
NAPLES          74 92 74 90 / 10 40 30 40
&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
444 AM EDT SAT JUL 10 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA

FLZ063-066>075-102200-
BROWARD METROPOLITAN-DADE METROPOLITAN-EASTERN COLLIER-GLADES-HENDRY-
MAINLAND MONROE-PALM BEACH EASTERN-PALM BEACH WESTERN-
WESTERN BROWARD-WESTERN COLLIER-WESTERN DADE-
444 AM EDT SAT JUL 10 2004

.DAY ONE...TODAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

HANDEL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1213 PM EDT SAT JUL 10 2004

FLZ074-101900-
MIAMI-DADE METROPOLITAN-
1213 PM EDT SAT JUL 10 2004

...SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF MIAMI-DADE
COUNTY...

WILDFIRES CONTINUE TO BURN ACROSS PORTIONS OF MIAMI-DADE COUNTY...
IN AREAS WEST OF THE FLORIDA TURNPIKE AND NORTH OF TAMIAMI TRAIL.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS THAT A NEW FIRE IGNITED
LATE THIS MORNING SOME 2 MILES EAST OF KROME AVENUE...6 MILES NORTH
OF TAMIAMI TRAIL.

THE PREVAILING EAST SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW IS CARRYING DENSE SMOKE FROM
THIS NEW FIRE ACROSS KROME AVENUE. AS A RESULT...THE FLORIDA HIGHWAY
PATROL HAS CLOSED A PORTION OF KROME AVENUE BETWEEN TAMIAMI TRAIL AND
U.S. 27.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE ALIGNED NORTH OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY...RESULTING IN A CONTINUED EASTERLY WIND FLOW.
THIS WILL KEEP THE SMOKE AWAY FROM THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

DG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
242 PM EDT SAT JUL 10 2004

FLZ075-101915-
MAINLAND MONROE-
242 PM EDT SAT JUL 10 2004

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY...
...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...

AT 240 PM...DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING OVER
MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY. THE STRONGEST STORMS WERE LOCATED 10 MILES
SOUTH OF MONROE STATION...MOVING WEST AT 5 MPH.

THE LIGHTNING DETECTION NETWORK SHOWS THAT THESE STORMS ARE
PRODUCING EXTENSIVE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES...OVER 150
STRIKES EVERY 5 MINUTES. THESE STORMS ARE ALSO CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH AS WELL AS SMALL HAIL.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

DG