Severe Thunderstorm Warning 5, NWS Miami, FL

SOUTH FLORIDA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
915 AM EST WED FEB 25 2004

.CURRENT...
SHARP BOUNDARY FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
COAST AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH AT AROUND 5 KNOTS.
BOW ECHO ALONG BOUNDARY JUST OFFSHORE FORT MYERS MAY AFFECT COLLIER
COUNTY IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO BUT LATEST RADAR SHOWS WEAKENING
TREND.

MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOW RELATIVELY HIGH POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY WITH HELICITY VALUES QUITE HIGH ALREADY
AND IF EAST COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS THIS WILL ONLY GET WORSE. DEW
POINTS IN THE LOW 70S AND ABUNDANT HEATING WILL CREATE GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE OF
PRE-BOUNDARY ACTIVITY FORMING EVEN THIS MORNING.

MARINE WINDS WILL LIKELY PICK UP LATER THIS MORNING AND WILL
CONTINUE WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...CURRENTLY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS SHOVED
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY S TO JUST N OF LAKE OKEE. APPEARS SYSTEM HAS
STALLED AND SOME UPWARD LIFT FROM S WINDS TO S OF BOUNDARY PRODUCING
SHOWERS JUST TO THE N. SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CLIP GLADES
COUNTY/LAKE OKEE. SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS AS WELL. OTHERWISE...NEAR CALM CONDITIONS OVER CWA S
OF BOUNDARY WITH VARYING CLOUD COVER AND SOME PATCHY FOG.

STAGE SETTING UP FOR A ROUND OF SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION OVER S FLA
MAINLY LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. UPPER LOW OVER S TX MOVING INTO THE
GULF WITH DIVERGENT FLOW OVER S FLA. CAPES EXCEED 1000 TODAY WITH
STRONG UPWARD OMEGA. CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE SOME DRY AIR MID LEVELS
WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
SWODY1 JUST IN VERIFIES THIS THINKING. FRONT COMES THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT WITH WIND SHIFT TO W BUT LITTLE DECREASE IN TEMP AS AIR MASS
QUITE MODIFIED COMING ACROSS GULF. WHEN SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OFF OF
THE SE U.S. COAST FRI AND MORE NORTHERLY WINDS BEGIN MOVING S OVER
AREA WILL TEMPS DROP TO MORE SEASONABLE THU NIGHT INTO SAT BEFORE
TEMPS BEGIN WARM UP AGAIN.

&&
.MARINE...AFTER CONFAB WITH ASTUTE EYW PERSONNEL WHO NOTED THAT AVN
MOS WINDS QUITE DIFFERENT FROM MODEL SURFACE WINDS ( POSSIBLE
CONVECTIVE FEED BACK GENERATING SPURIOUS LOWS?). WILL SCALE BACK
ADVERTISED WINDS TO MAXIMUM OF 20 KNOTS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON.
THEN DECREASING TONIGHT AND BECOMING W 10 TO 15 KNOTS LATE. THIS
FLOW CONTINUES THU/THU NIGHT THEN SHIFT NW INTO EXTENDED PERIOD AND
INCREASE AS SURFACE DEVELOPS AND STRENGTHENS OFF OF THE SE U.S.
COAST. SINCE THE STRONGER WINDS HAVE NOT MATERIALIZED...AND SEAS IN
TURN LOWER...WILL HAVE AN ADVISORY TODAY GULF/ATLC WATERS DUE TO
WINDS NEARING 20 KNOTS SUSTAINED FOR A WHILE BUT HIGHER WINDS AND
SEAS IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO PROBLEMS AT THIS TIME.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH   81 66 78 57 / 70 90 10 00
FORT LAUDERDALE   85 67 79 59 / 70 90 20 00
MIAMI             86 68 79 59 / 70 90 20 00
NAPLES            78 66 73 57 / 80 70 10 00
&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
 SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GULF/ATLC WATERS TODAY.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
849 AM EST WED FEB 25 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA

FLZ063-066>075-260000-
BROWARD METROPOLITAN-DADE METROPOLITAN-EASTERN COLLIER-GLADES-HENDRY-
MAINLAND MONROE-PALM BEACH EASTERN-PALM BEACH WESTERN-
WESTERN BROWARD-WESTERN COLLIER-WESTERN DADE-
849 AM EST WED FEB 25 2004

.DAY ONE...TODAY

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY...
...MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS SOUTHWEST COAST TODAY...

AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL PRODUCE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS
COULD BECOME STRONG OR EVEN SEVERE WITH WIND GUSTS TO 40 TO 60 MPH
AND DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

PERSONS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR APPROACHING THUNDERSTORMS AND BE PREPARED
TO TAKE SHELTER IF THREATENING WEATHER IS SIGHTED OR A WARNING IS ISSUED.

SOUTHWEST WINDS NEAR 20 MPH, WILL PRODUCE A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS MAINLY
AFTER LATE MORNING ALONG THE COLLIER COUNTY BEACHES.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND DETAILED GRAPHICS CAN BE FOUND ON THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB SITE AT MIAMIWEATHER.INFO. FOR
INFORMATION IN SPANISH, VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT ELTIEMPOENMIAMI.INFO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED TODAY.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1254 PM EST WED FEB 25 2004

FLZ071-072-251830-
BROWARD METROPOLITAN-WESTERN BROWARD-
1254 PM EST WED FEB 25 2004

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR METRO BROWARD...

AT 1250 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EAST AROUND 25 TO 30 MPH ACROSS THE EVERGLADES IN
WESTERN BROWARD COUNTY. THIS LINE WILL BE REACHING HIGHWAY US-27 SHORTLY AFTER 1
PM AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST. AT THIS TIME...THE AREAS MOST AFFECTED BY THIS
LINE WILL BE SOUTH OF ALLIGATOR ALLEY AND I-595 IN SOUTHERN BROWARD COUNTY.
WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THIS ACTIVITY ALONG WITH
FREQUENT LIGHTNING. RESIDENTS ARE ADVISED TO REMAIN ON THE ALERT IN CASE
WARNINGS ARE ISSUED.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH 4 PM.

SANTOS