Flash Flood Warning 89, NWS Memphis, TN

000 
WGUS74 KMEG 020019
FFSMEM
ARC031-055-111-020115-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
619 PM CST MON NOV 1 2004

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR CRAIGHEAD...POINSETT AND
GREENE COUNTIES UNTIL 715 PM CST...

AT 619 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE 
HEAVY RAIN FALLING ACROSS THE WARNED COUNTIES. THREE HOUR RAINFALL 
ESTIMATES OF 3 INCHES WERE NOTED ON WEATHER SERVICE RADAR. 

AT 530 PM...A TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTER REPORTED FLOODING ALONG THE 
TURTLE CREEK OFF OF MATTHEWS ROAD IN JONESBORO. IN ADDITION...WATER 
WAS APPROACHING A HOUSE ALONG MATTHEWS ROAD. ALSO...WATER UP TO 1 
1/2 FEET DEEP COVERED PORTIONS OF KINGSBURY STREET IN JONESBORO. 

.BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODS AND FLASH FLOODS. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED...
ACT QUICKLY. MOVE UP TO HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS.

.TO REPORT FLOODING HAVE THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY RELAY 
YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN 
MEMPHIS.

.STAY TUNED TO THIS BROADCAST FOR THE LATEST UPDATES AND INFORMATION.

$$

000 
WGUS74 KMEG 020118
FFSMEM
ARC031-055-111-020215-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
715 PM CST MON NOV 1 2004

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR CRAIGHEAD...POINSETT AND GREENE
COUNTIES HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE...

AT 715 PM CST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED THAT THE 
FLOODING RAINFALL WAS ENDING ACROSS CRAIGHEAD...POINSETT AND GREENE 
COUNTIES...AND THE IMMEDIATE FLOOD THREAT WAS DIMINISHING. SOME 
MINOR FLOODING MAY CONTINUE...BUT THE SERIOUS THREAT OF FLOODING HAS 
ENDED FOR NOW. THUS...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO 
EXPIRE.

.A FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL 
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT AND ADDITIONAL FLASH 
FLOOD WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED. STAY TUNED FOR THE LATEST 
INFORMATION CONCERNING THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL FLOODING AND 
POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

.TO REPORT FLOODING HAVE THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY RELAY 
YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN 
MEMPHIS.

.STAY TUNED TO THIS BROADCAST FOR THE LATEST UPDATES AND INFORMATION.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
351 PM CST MON NOV 1 2004

.DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE MIDWEST THROUGH TUESDAY. A WARM
FRONT EXTENDS EAST FROM THE LOW OVER THE MIDWEST WITH A STRONG COLD
FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS...CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA...AND INTO NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. A PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL
LINE HAS DEVELOPED FROM SOUTHEAST MISSOURI SOUTHWARD ACROSS ARKANSAS
AND INTO PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA TODAY. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST INTO OUR AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
AREA THIS EVENING AS THE LINE PROGRESSES EAST. SPC HAS THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH HIGHLIGHTED IN THE DAY 1 SLIGHT RISK
OUTLOOK. ALSO A TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL ACROSS THE
THREAT AREA...STRONG WIND FIELDS HAVE ALLOWED FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SMALL BOWING SEGMENTS AND ISOLATED SUPERCELLS. THE PRIMARY THREAT
ACROSS THE TORNADO WATCH AREA THIS EVENING WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS
AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST TONIGHT AND SLOWLY
PASS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH ON TUESDAY. A POTENT UPPER
LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES INTO THE MIDWEST
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI ON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
LOW WILL HELP INDUCE A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW THAT WILL TRAVERSE
NORTHEAST ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AHEAD OF THESE
WEATHER SYSTEMS...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NORTHWARD.
THIS COMBINED WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER SYSTEM ALL SPELLS
THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE EXTENDED THE FLOOD
WATCH THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY. WIND FIELDS STILL LOOK STRONG ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI ON TUESDAY...
SO SOME SEVERE THREAT MAY STILL EXIST ACROSS THESE AREAS AGAIN
TOMORROW...ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE HELD DOWN AGAIN BY RAIN AND
CLOUDS.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS TO OUR NORTHEAST
WITH DRY AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH ON THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE IN PLACE
SHOULD COME THROUGH DRY. EXPECT DRY WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST
PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MEG...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY.
MS...FLOOD WATCH FOR EXTREME NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI THROUGH 12Z
     WEDNESDAY. FLOOD WATCH FOR THE REST OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI FROM
     12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY.
MO...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY.
TN...FLOOD WATCH FOR EXTREME WEST TENNESSEE THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY.
     FLOOD WATCH FOR THE REST OF WEST TENNESSEE FROM 12Z TUESDAY
     THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY.

&&

JLH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
302 PM CST MON NOV 1 2004

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017-
020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-021100-
ALCORN-BENTON-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DECATUR-DESOTO-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE(AR)-LEE(MS)-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-PHILLIPS-
POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. FRANCIS-
TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-WEAKLEY-
YALOBUSHA-
302 PM CST MON NOV 1 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...NORTH
MISSISSIPPI...WEST TENNESSEE AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL.

.DAY ONE...

A STRONG AND SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MIDSOUTH FROM
THE WEST TONIGHT. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
SLOWLY MOVE EAST INTO PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI
BOOTHEEL THIS EVENING AND SPREAD FURTHER EAST TONIGHT.

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CST FOR EAST CENTRAL
ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND FAR
WESTERN TENNESSEE. THIS INCLUDES THE MEMPHIS METROPOLITAN AREA. A
LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH
THE MIDSOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE ATMOSPHERE IS CONDUCIVE
FOR SOME OF THESE STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES AS THE MAIN THREAT.

A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR EASTERN ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI
BOOTHEEL...EXTREME WEST TENNESSEE AND EXTREME NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI
FOR TONIGHT. HEAVY RAIN WITH TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE WATCH AREA DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE STORM SYSTEM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG
AND SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT. RAIN WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

A FLOOD WATCH WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE MIDSOUTH FROM TUESDAY
UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY. HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION...WITH RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE REQUIRED THIS EVENING.