Flash Flood Warning 37, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
322 PM CDT FRI JUN 18 2004

.DISCUSSION...
AT 3 PM...CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES ALONG LINE FROM ST. LOUIS
TO THE TX/OK RED RIVER BORDER AREA ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
THESE STORMS WILL MOVE AT A SLOW CLIP EASTWARD PERHAPS GIVING THE
BEST CHANCES OF EARLY NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY ACROSS NE ARKANSAS AND THE
MISSOURI BOOTHEEL REGION...WHERE HIGHEST CHANCES ARE EARMARKED FOR
THE FORECAST TONIGHT.

THE PROXIMITY OF FRONT...INTERACTING WITH THE HEATING OF THE
DAY...AND AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE THE IMPETUS FOR THE GENESIS OF
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE WFO MEMPHIS AREA OF
RESPONSIBILITY ON SATURDAY.

TWO SITUATIONS CAN OCCUR SUNDAY. FIRST...THE FRONT HAS HAD ALREADY
PROGRESSIVELY MADE IT THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH. THIS WILL LEAD TO A MORE
BUT BRIEF NORTHERLY FLOW AND SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE AIRMASS WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST.  SECOND...THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN THE
WARM SECTOR...AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS TO OUR WEST AND NORTH.
THIS SITUATION WOULD LEAD TO MORE CONVECTION UPSTREAM OR NEAR THE
MID SOUTH.  WENT WITH FORMER SITUATION...BUT WITH PAST JUNE 2004
HISTORY...PROGRESSIVE MOVEMENT OF FRONTAL FEATURE IS NOT PROBABLE.

IT APPEARS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH BACK NORTH DURING THE
WEEK...AND BE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY...NEAR THE NORTHERN PRECIPICE OF
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE
ANOMALOUS ACTIVE JUNE WITH TROPICAL AIRMASS STILL IN PLACE.
REFLECTED THESE THOUGHTS BY KEEP CHANCES OF TSTMS IN THE AREA
THROUGH MOST THE WEEK...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE NORTHERN FRINGES NEAR
KENTUCKY AND MISSOURI.

&&

.MEG...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

CORDERO

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017-
020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-191000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
355 PM CDT FRI JUN 18 2004

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017-
020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-191000-
ALCORN MS-BENTON MS-CALHOUN MS-CARROLL TN-CHESTER TN-CHICKASAW MS-
CLAY AR-COAHOMA MS-CRAIGHEAD AR-CRITTENDEN AR-CROCKETT TN-CROSS AR-
DE SOTO MS-DECATUR TN-DUNKLIN MO-DYER TN-FAYETTE TN-GIBSON TN-
GREENE AR-HARDEMAN TN-HARDIN TN-HAYWOOD TN-HENDERSON TN-HENRY TN-
ITAWAMBA MS-LAFAYETTE MS-LAKE TN-LAUDERDALE TN-LAWRENCE AR-LEE MS-
LEE AR-MADISON TN-MARSHALL MS-MCNAIRY TN-MISSISSIPPI AR-MONROE MS-
OBION TN-PANOLA MS-PEMISCOT MO-PHILLIPS AR-POINSETT AR-PONTOTOC MS-
PRENTISS MS-QUITMAN MS-RANDOLPH AR-SHELBY TN-ST. FRANCIS AR-
TALLAHATCHIE MS-TATE MS-TIPPAH MS-TIPTON TN-TISHOMINGO MS-TUNICA MS-
UNION MS-WEAKLEY TN-YALOBUSHA MS-
355 PM CDT FRI JUN 18 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...NORTH
MISSISSIPPI...WEST TENNESSEE AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL.

.DAY ONE...

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING MAINLY
WEST OF LINE FROM UNION CITY TENNESSEE TO WYNNE ARKANSAS. AN VERY
SLOW ENCROACHING COLD FRONT...PLENTIFUL MOISTURE AND AN UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BRING ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INTO
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE
MAIN THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FEASIBLE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY SATURDAY EVENING ACROSS THE MID SOUTH. MOST STORMS ARE
EXPECTED NOT TO BECOME STRONG...A FEW WILL. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE
FOR SMALL HAIL...WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS. EXPECT THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO TAPER OFF
AROUND SUNSET SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS EVENING.