Flash Flood Warning 88, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

000 
WGUS74 KMAF 271413
FFSMAF
NMC015-271700-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
813 AM MDT TUE JUL 27 2004

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR EDDY COUNTY WILL BE ALLOWED TO 
EXPIRE...

AT 800 AM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER EDDY COUNTY. RADAR 
ESTIMATES HAVE SHOWN THAT RAINFALL HAS REMAINED NEAR OR BELOW ONE 
HALF INCH OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS IN EDDY COUNTY...AND THE THREAT 
FOR WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING HAS DIMINISHED. 

ALTHOUGH THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE 
AND INTENSITY...MINOR LOCAL FLOODING OF ARROYOS...DRAWS...AND OTHER 
LOW-LYING AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL.  HIGHWAYS 
408 AND 137 IN PARTICULAR IN SOUTHWESTERN EDDY COUNTY WILL ALSO 
CONTINUE TO HAVE ISOLATED AREAS OF PONDING WATER.  

TO REPORT FLOODING OR SEVERE WEATHER ONLY... CALL THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN MIDLAND AT 1 800 597 3220.

LAT...LON 3252 10481 3202 10483 3203 10374 3251 10373
      3251 10383 3278 10384 3278 10482

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
400 AM CDT TUE JUL 27 2004

.SHORT TERM...
THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL AGAIN BE RAINFALL
CHANCES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL FLOODING. 27/00Z RAOBS
ACROSS WEST TEXAS CONTINUE TO SHOW A VERY MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE AND
THIS MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.
UPPER DYNAMICS ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...BUT WITH ONE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER FAR WEST TEXAS AND ANOTHER SET TO APPROACH THE
AREA TONIGHT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN HIGH ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE CURRENT GRIDS LOOK GOOD WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS (60-70%) OVER THE BIG BEND REGION AND THE ONLY CHANGE WAS TO
INCREASE POPS/QPF OVER THE NORTHERN 1/3 OF THE CWA INTO THE 40-50%
RANGE. GIVEN SATURATED SOILS...ONGOING RIVER FLOODING AND VERY LOW
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES...WE WILL EXTEND THE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD
WATCH THROUGH TODAY. POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED TONIGHT OVER SOUTHEAST
NEW MEXICO AS MODELS SUGGEST A SURFACE TROUGH AND MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL GIN UP CONVECTION OVER THE PLAINS OF EASTERN
NEW MEXICO. WITH INCREASING NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE MID-LEVELS SOME OF
THIS ACTIVITY MAY DRIFT INTO THE MENTIONED REGION. TEMPERATURES WERE
LOWERED TODAY GIVEN ANTICIPATED PRECIPITATION AND THICK CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...
ON WEDNESDAY UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND TEXAS
KEEPING THE SOUTHWEST U.S. UNSTABLE.  MODELS DEVELOP MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA CLOSER TO THE BETTER LIFT
BUT EXPECT TO SEE SOME STORMS AROUND AREA.  CURRENT LOW POPS IN THE
ZONES FOR WED AND THUR LOOK FINE FOR NOW BUT MAY NEED TO BE
RAISED/ADJUSTED FOR FAVORED LOCATION AS TROUGH APPROACHES.  AS TROUGH
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK IN FROM THE WEST
DECREASING PRECIP CHANCES AND WARMING TEMPS.

LEESIDE TROUGH WILL FORM A CLOSED LOW WEDNESDAY AND DROP SOUTH.  ETA
DEVELOPS MESO LOW OVER TRANS PECOS THURSDAY BUT ONLY WEAKLY BRINGS
FRONT DOWN INTO AREA... SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH COOLING WITH IT BUT
COULD GET STORMS ALONG IT.  GFS ALSO DEVELOPS MESO LOW BUT MOVES IT
ALONG THE RED RIVER BUT DOES BRIEFLY DRAG FRONT INTO CWA. BOTH MODELS
AGREE BY FRIDAY WIND WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH WITH LONG RANGE/MEX
GUIDANCE WARMING HIGHS BACK TO TYPICAL SUMMER TIME READINGS ON
SATURDAY AND CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEK.

HAVE HAD RECORD SETTING COOL TEMPERATURES AS CLOUDS AND RAIN
PERSISTED ACROSS THE AREA... WHICH HAS TO END SOONER OR LATER.  THE
00Z MAF SOUNDING HAD A PW OF 1.63 INCHES WITH A VERY SATURATED
PROFILE... BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS DROP THIS BELOW AN INCH OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AND SHOW GOOD DRYING.  MODEL GRAPHICS ALSO DEVELOP THIS
DRYING ESPECIALLY AT MID AND LOW LEVELS WHERE CURRENT CLOUDS HAVE
REMAINED THICK FOR PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.

SHOULD START SEEING SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WEDNESDAY AS MODELS
DRY OUT ATMOSPHERE FROM WEST TO EAST BUT DONT EXPECT IT TO BE REALLY
SUNNY TIL RIDGE RETURNS.  TEMP FORECASTS THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE
CHALLENGING AS WILL BE DIRECTLY TIED TO HOW MUCH SUN CAN BREAK
THROUGH AND READINGS CAN GET EASILY KNOCKED BACK DOWN BY A RANDOM
SHOWER.  GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRYING TO WARM TEMPS TOO QUICKLY SO WILL
GO WELL BELOW BUT START WARMING TEMPS INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX             76  66  83  69 /  50  50  10  10
CARLSBAD NM               78  63  89  68 /  50  40  20  20
DRYDEN TX                 77  67  86  69 /  60  50  20  20
FORT STOCKTON TX          76  68  86  68 /  70  50  20  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX         71  60  85  63 /  60  40  20  20
HOBBS NM                  78  64  87  66 /  50  40  20  20
MARFA TX                  73  58  81  59 /  70  50  20  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX   75  65  84  69 /  50  50  10  10
ODESSA TX                 75  65  85  69 /  50  50  20  20
WINK TX                   78  66  92  70 /  60  50  20  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TODAY FOR THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS...
     BIG BEND...AND LOWER TRANS PECOS...TXZ074-075-079>082.
NM...NONE.

&&

06/72

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
500 AM CDT TUE JUL 27 2004

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-272000-
ANDREWS-BIG BEND AREA-BORDEN-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-CRANE-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-DAWSON-ECTOR-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-GAINES-
GLASSCOCK-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-
HOWARD-LOVING-MARFA PLATEAU-MARTIN-MIDLAND-MITCHELL-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-REAGAN-
REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-SCURRY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-
TERRELL-UPTON-VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-WARD-WINKLER-
500 AM CDT (400 AM MDT) TUE JUL 27 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF WEST
TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO TODAY. WHILE LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...FAR SOUTHWEST
TEXAS WILL SEE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD FLOODING.
A FLOOD WATCH FOR FLASH FLOODING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE DAVIS
MOUNTAINS...MARFA PLATEAU...BIG BEND AND LOWER TRANS PECOS TODAY.

A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE RIO GRANDE RIVER FROM NEAR
PRESIDIO TO NEAR CASTOLON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE REQUIRED TODAY. SPOTTER GROUPS
AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO MONITOR THE LATEST WEATHER
INFORMATION AND BE PREPARED SHOULD HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING
THREATEN THE AREA.

06