Flash Flood Warning 62, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
125 PM CDT SUN JUN 27 2004

.SHORT TERM...
DEEP MSTR REMAINS IN PLACE FROM SRN NM INTO W TX WITH M40S DWPNTS
BACK INTO WRN NM. 7H ANALYSIS OF DWPNT DEPRESSION INDICATES MID LEVEL
MST AXIS EXTENDS FROM PANHANDLE SWD INTO FAR W TX WHILE MCV LIFTS NE
INTO NE CWFA. OTHERWISE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS STILL WELL W WITH NW
FLOW ALOFT IN PLACE ACRS RGN. MID LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS THIS PM AS
SHRTWV ENERGY RIDES DOWN ERN NM PLAINS INTO W TX TONIGHT. UPPER FLOW
IS DIVERGENT WHILE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS CONVERGENT PROVIDING A GENERAL
NET UPWARD DISPLACEMENT OF AIR...MORE-SO WHEN COMBINED WITH UPSLOPE
AND 7H-5H LR/ OF 7.5-8 C/KM. AS SUCH TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE W. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR INCREASES TO AROUND 30KTS BY 00Z
WITH FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING A SHALLOW INVERTED V CHARACTER. ISOLD
SEVERE REPORTS POSSIBLE WITH WELL DEVELOPED MULTICELL STORMS. STORMS
FROM GDP/S NWD WILL HAVE GOOD CHANCE TO ORGANIZE INTO MCS TONIGHT.
COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING S THRU THE SP OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THAT MCS
WOULD TRY TO FEED E-SE ALONG/INVOF BOUNDARY. ETA SUGGEST
WEAK/STRONGLY BACKED LOW LEVEL JET INTO WRN PB/SE NM TONIGHT THUS
HIEST POPS THERE. HEAVY RAINS HAVE OCCURRED ACRS NWRN AREA LAST FEW
NIGHTS AND WITH ADDITIONAL RN TONIGHT COULD BE SOME FLOODING
PROBLEMS. ATTM NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD PROBLEMS AND THEREFORE WILL
NOT ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH...INSTEAD WILL MENTION STORMS WITH
HEAVY RN IN ZFP/GRIDS AND MENTION FLOODING IN HWO. STORMS THAT FORM
IN THE E-S CWFA THIS PM EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING.
OTHERWISE M60S TEMPS EXPECTED AGAIN.

.LONG TERM...
MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE MOST PART OVER THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  IT WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY
EAST WITH TIME AND EVENTUALLY THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE WILL MAKE ITS
WAY INTO OUR EASTERN CWA.  A SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE SURFACE RIDGING WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT/OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY.  THIS FOCUS COMBINED WITH NORMAL
DIURNAL CONVECTION OVER THE NM MOUNTAINS AND NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE
MID LEVELS WILL COMBINE TO INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
OVER OUR AREA ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.  WE WILL LIKELY HAVE SOME HEAVY
RAIN WITH THIS ACTIVITY.  AT THIS TIME...MONDAY NIGHT APPEARS TO BE
THE FAVORED PERIOD FOR MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY.  WE WILL HAVE THE
BOUNDARY IN OUR CWA WITH OTHER SMALLER-SCALE BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER
CONVECTION...AND AN INSTABILITY AXIS LAYING SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST
FROM CENTRAL TX THROUGH THE PERMIAN BASIN TO SOUTHEASTERN NM BY THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.  HAVE DECREASED HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY FOR
EXPECTED CLOUD-COVER AND POSSIBLE PRECIP OVER THE REGION.  EVEN IF
RAIN DOES NOT CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...EXPECT CLOUD-COVER
TO LIMIT HEATING AND WILL LOWER HIGHS.

WILL KEEP THE CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK AS WE
WILL REMAIN MOIST AND UNSTABLE.  WE WILL ALSO HAVE MINOR SHORTWAVES
MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE TO HELP INITIATE CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS.  WILL KEEP AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE
MOUNTAIN AREAS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.  HAVE TEMPERATURES TRENDING UP
IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD TO NEAR-NORMAL VALUES AS
THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE CWA AND LESS CLOUD-COVER IS EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX             65  86  66  83 /  20  30  50  40
CARLSBAD NM               64  86  64  86 /  40  30  30  40
DRYDEN TX                 70  89  68  84 /  20  30  50  40
FORT STOCKTON TX          68  89  66  84 /  20  30  50  40
GUADALUPE PASS TX         60  82  61  81 /  30  30  30  30
HOBBS NM                  61  84  61  84 /  40  30  40  40
MARFA TX                  58  85  57  80 /  20  30  40  40
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX   66  86  66  83 /  20  30  50  40
ODESSA TX                 66  86  65  83 /  20  30  50  40
WINK TX                   68  92  66  89 /  30  30  40  40

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.

&&

49/20

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
151 PM CDT SUN JUN 27 2004

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-280500-
ANDREWS-BIG BEND AREA-BORDEN-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-CRANE-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-DAWSON-ECTOR-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-GAINES-
GLASSCOCK-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-
HOWARD-LOVING-MARFA PLATEAU-MARTIN-MIDLAND-MITCHELL-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-REAGAN-
REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-SCURRY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-
TERRELL-UPTON-VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-WARD-WINKLER-
151 PM CDT (1251 PM MDT) SUN JUN 27 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE LATE NIGHT...
ESPECIALLY WEST OF A LINE FROM LAMESA TO VAN HORN. THESE STORMS
ACROSS THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 60 MPH...HEAVY RAIN...AND
HAIL. RECENT HEAVY RAINS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO HAVE INCREASED
THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING. HEAVY RAINS IN THE
MOUNTAINS WEST OF EDDY COUNTY TONIGHT COULD ALSO RESULT IN RAPID
INCREASES OF ARROYOS DURING THE LATE NIGHT.

ISOLATED STORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS
TO AROUND 60 MPH...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...AND SMALL HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE WESTERN AREAS TONIGHT.