Flash Flood Warning 44, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

000 
WGUS74 KMAF 252347
FFSMAF
TXC415-260230-
/..000000T0000Z-040526T0230Z/

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
644 PM CDT TUE MAY 25 2004

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 930 PM CDT FOR SCURRY 
COUNTY...

AT 640 PM CDT...THE SHERIFFS OFFICE REPORTED FLOODING OCCURRING IN 
SNYDER ON CITY STREETS WITH SOME ROADS BECOMING IMPASSABLE. ANY
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL WORSEN THIS SITUATION.

TO REPORT FLOODING OR SEVERE WEATHER ONLY... CALL THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN MIDLAND AT 1 800 597 3220.

LAT...LON 3284 10114 3254 10092 3274 10067 3288 10086

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
151 PM CDT TUE MAY 25 2004

.SHORT TERM...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR CHILDRESS TO SOUTH OF LUBBOCK TO
NORTH OF HOBBS AT 18Z. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD SLOWLY PUSH SOUTHEAST
THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...ORIENTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PERMIAN BASIN AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. A DRYLINE EXTENDED SOUTH OF
THE BOUNDARY FROM NEAR HOBBS TO WINK TO EAST OF FORT STOCKTON.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE TRANS PECOS REGION.
CONVERGENCE/LIFT ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY PROVIDE FOR A BETTER
FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SHEAR PROFILES AND INSTABILITY PARAMETERS WILL SUPPORT
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE AREA THROUGH
THIS EVENING...WITH THE MAIN CONCERNS BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND. THE BOUNDARY MAY TRY TO LIFT TO THE NORTH SLIGHTLY LATER
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY CONTINUE NEAR THIS
BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES. OTHERWISE LOWS
TONIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE 60S TO THE LOWER 70S OVER MOST LOCATIONS
UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

.LONG TERM...
MID LEVEL FLOW VEERS WED SETTING UP DRYLINE W ACRS ERN NM INTO TRANS
PECOS. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE LOOKS TO FOCUS IN THE NE UNDERNEATH MID
LEVEL THERMAL TROF AND BEST CHANCE FOR TSTMS IS THERE/LOWER TRANS
PECOS. SRN STREAM TROF CONTINUES TO TAKE A FARTHER SWD TRACK. ETA
IS SLOWEST...BUT GFS HAS LOW INITIALIZED BEST...FARTHEST SW AS
COMPARED TO WATER VAPOR. SLIGHTLY FARTHER SWD TRACK WILL FAVOR
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ACRS W TX...AND POSSIBLY A LATER
ARRIVAL THUR EVENING...OFF SET FROM MAX HEATING. GFS IS STILL QUICKER
IN EJECTING LOW. ETA/S FCST SFC LOW POSITION (WRN OK) IS NOT
FAVORABLE FOR BEST MSTR TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACRS W TX. AN ORGANIZED
AND CONSISTENT 7H-3H OMEGA FIELD MVG ACRS W TX LOOKS TO PROVIDE
STRONG LIFT. STRENGTH OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND BACKING 7H-85H
FLOW THUR PM SUGGESTS A FARTHER WWD POSITION OF SFC LOW WITH BETTER
MSTR POSSIBLE. SIGNIFICANT 5H COOLING THUR PM (2-5 DEGREES C) WILL
HELP TO DESTABILIZE CONDITIONS ARCS TRANS PECOS AND EXPECT EARLY PM
TSTMS THERE BEFORE STRONGER DYNAMICS ARRIVE EARLY EVENING. 50KTS OF
0-6KM BULK SHEAR TO FAVOR SEVERE TSTMS. DEEP/COLD MID LEVEL TROF
QUICKLY MOVES INTO INTER MTN W SAT SERVING TO KEEP THICKNESS LOWER
ACRS W TX AND WILL BACK OFF ON TEMPS IN EXTENDED A CATEGORY OR SO.
TROF TO REMAIN N FAVORING A WLY COMPONENT AND LIMITED MSTR ACRS AREA.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX             67  93  68  91 /  30  10  10  20
CARLSBAD NM               65  96  66  89 /  10   0   0  20
DRYDEN TX                 72  93  68  89 /  20  10  10  20
FORT STOCKTON TX          72  94  67  91 /  30  10  10  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX         63  88  61  87 /   0   0   0  20
HOBBS NM                  64  93  63  91 /  20  10  10  20
MARFA TX                  60  88  58  84 /  10  10  10  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX   69  94  68  92 /  30  10  10  20
ODESSA TX                 67  95  68  94 /  30  10  10  20
WINK TX                   72  99  69  94 /  30  10  10  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
300 PM CDT TUE MAY 25 2004

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-261000-
ANDREWS-BIG BEND AREA-BORDEN-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-CRANE-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-DAWSON-ECTOR-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-GAINES-
GLASSCOCK-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-
HOWARD-LOVING-MARFA PLATEAU-MARTIN-MIDLAND-MITCHELL-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-REAGAN-
REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-SCURRY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-
TERRELL-UPTON-VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-WARD-WINKLER-
300 PM CDT (200 PM MDT) TUE MAY 25 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A HOBBS...PECOS...ALPINE LINE.
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP...WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS. FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AND HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY ANY STORM
THAT DEVELOPS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS WEST TEXAS
AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THESE
STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...
FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.