Flash Flood Warning 154, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

000 
WGUS74 KMAF 270047
FFSMAF
TXC003-270330-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
741 PM CDT SUN SEP 26 2004

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 1030 PM CDT FOR WESTERN
ANDREWS COUNTY...

AT 735 PM CDT...A TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTER REPORTED WATER 4 INCHES 
DEEP OVER HIGHWAY 176 IN SPOTS WEST OF THE TOWN OF ANDREWS TO THE 
STATE LINE IN THE EXTREME WESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTY.

AT 745 PM CDT DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS 
CONTINUED ACROSS WESTERN ANDREWS COUNTY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
FROM THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY AGGRAVATE THE FLASH FLOODING.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. ACT QUICKLY IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED. MOVE TO
HIGHER GROUND.

TO REPORT FLOODING OR SEVERE WEATHER ONLY... CALL THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN MIDLAND AT 1 800 597 3220.

LAT...LON 3214 10303 3213 10253 3250 10258 3250 10303

$$

000 
WGUS74 KMAF 270123
FFSMAF
TXC003-270330-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
819 PM CDT SUN SEP 26 2004

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 1030 PM CDT FOR ANDREWS 
COUNTY...

AT 817 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR DETECTED 
INTENSIFYING THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTHWEST OVER SOUTHEAST ANDREWS 
COUNTY. THESE STORMS WILL SPREAD OVER THE CITY OF ANDREWS BY 830 PM 
CDT.

RAIN WILL FALL AT RATES EXCEEDING 1 INCH PER HOUR THROUGH 900 PM 
CDT. THIS BURST OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL POSE A THREAT OF FLASH 
FLOODING IN THE CITY OF ANDREWS. 

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE 
DANGERS OF FLOODING. DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADWAYS.

LAT...LON 3214 10303 3213 10253 3250 10258 3250 10303

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
320 PM CDT SUN SEP 26 2004

.SHORT TERM...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BAROCLINIC LEAF SIGNATURE WITH UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO.
THE 6 AND 12 HOUR MODEL PROGS OF THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH ITS POSITION AS SEEN IN CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY.
A LARGE AREA OF WARM TOP CONVECTION CONTINUES OVER THE SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA PRESENTLY...AND WOULD EXPECT
THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE AND PERHAPS INTENSIFY
OVERNIGHT AS THE MID LEVEL COLD POOL ALOFT SEEN ON THE MORNING EPZ
500 MB UPPER AIR PLOT SLIDES FARTHER EASTWARD AND JET DYNAMICS BECOME
SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE ACROSS THE CWA. GROUNDS ALREADY SATURATED
FROM RAINS THE PAST THREE DAYS ARE ALREADY RECEIVING ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL TODAY. CONDITIONS ARE DETERIORATING ACROSS EDDY AND LEA
COUNTIES IN NEW MEXICO...AND OVER BREWSTER...JEFF DAVIS...AND REEVES
COUNTIES IN TEXAS.  ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
OVER VAL VERDE AND CROCKETT COUNTIES ARE PRESENTLY MOVING NORTH
NORTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS PERMIAN BASIN.
BASED ON THIS AND EXPECTED RAINFALL LATER TONIGHT...HAVE ISSUED A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...
MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA.  BASED ON HOW WELL THE
MODELS DID WITH THE CURRENT POSITION OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND ALSO
BASED ON THE GFS PROG TO KEEP SIGNIFICANT JET ENERGY WEST OF THE LOW
CENTER...FEEL THAT THE SLOWER SOLUTION IS APPROPRIATE.  THIS SLOWER
SOLUTION WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED WET PATTERN FOR SOUTHEAST
NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY ALONG WITH
COOLER THAN NORMAL MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES.  MORE ZONAL MID AND UPPER
LEVEL FLOW BY THURSDAY SHOULD RESULT IN A BRIEF WARMING TREND
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE
AREA BY THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX             58  72  57  77 /  50  60  40  50
CARLSBAD NM               56  72  55  75 / 100  50  40  40
DRYDEN TX                 62  76  61  80 /  60  50  40  50
FORT STOCKTON TX          60  73  58  75 /  70  60  30  60
GUADALUPE PASS TX         53  68  52  69 /  70  50  40  40
HOBBS NM                  57  70  55  73 /  80  50  40  50
MARFA TX                  50  69  51  71 /  80  50  30  50
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX   59  72  57  75 /  50  60  30  50
ODESSA TX                 59  72  58  74 /  50  60  30  50
WINK TX                   61  72  59  75 /  70  60  40  50

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH ALL COUNTIES THROUGH 10Z MONDAY MORNING.
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR EDDY AND LEA COUNTIES THROUGH 10Z MONDAY
MORNING.

&&

67/03

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
230 PM CDT SUN SEP 26 2004

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-271000-
ANDREWS-BIG BEND AREA-BORDEN-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-CRANE-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-DAWSON-ECTOR-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-GAINES-
GLASSCOCK-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-
HOWARD-LOVING-MARFA PLATEAU-MARTIN-MIDLAND-MITCHELL-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-REAGAN-
REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-SCURRY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-
TERRELL-UPTON-VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-WARD-WINKLER-
230 PM CDT (130 PM MDT) SUN SEP 26 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO THROUGH TONIGHT.  HEAVY RAINS HAVE FALLEN OVER MANY AREAS
SINCE FRIDAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO...AND THE
UPPER TRANS PECOS REGION.  HEAVY RAINS TRAINING OVER THESE SAME
LOCATIONS TONIGHT WILL AGGRAVATE FLASH FLOODING...AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING.

RIVER LEVELS ON THE RIO GRANDE ARE ELEVATED DUE TO RUNOFF FROM HEAVY
RAINS FROM THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS TO THE BIG BEND REGION SINCE SATURDAY.
A FEW LOCATIONS ON THE RIO GRANDE ARE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE...WITH
ADDITIONAL RIVER FLOODING POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

A FLOOD WATCH FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE
OUTLOOK AREA TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE MONDAY...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE PERMIAN BASIN AND THE UPPER TRANS PECOS REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCIES...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS...STORM
SPOTTER GROUPS...AND OTHER INTERESTED CONCERNS SHOULD MONITOR THE
LATEST FORECASTS AND WEATHER INFORMATION REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR
FLOODING.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...AND
STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN MIDLAND
CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT http://www.srh.noaa.gov/maf.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
548 PM CDT SUN SEP 26 2004

NMZ028-029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-058>063-067>070-074-075-081-
082-271000-
ANDREWS-BIG BEND AREA-BORDEN-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-CRANE-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-DAWSON-ECTOR-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-GAINES-
GLASSCOCK-HOWARD-LOVING-MARTIN-MIDLAND-MITCHELL-NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-
PECOS-REAGAN-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-SCURRY-
SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-TERRELL-UPTON-WARD-WINKLER-
548 PM CDT (448 PM MDT) SUN SEP 26 2004

...A VERY DANGEROUS FLASH FLOOD EVENT IS DEVELOPING...

THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL ARE SPREADING OVER THE PERMIAN BASIN
AND THE TRANS PECOS REGION. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL PERSIST OVER MUCH OF THE PERMIAN BASIN...THE TRANS
PECOS REGION...AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO
MONDAY. ISOLATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS BY SUNRISE MAY EXCEED 2 TO 4
INCHES.

THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A VERY DANGEROUS FLASH FLOOD EVENT OVER
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. TRAVEL TONIGHT IN THESE AREAS IS STRONGLY
DISCOURAGED FLASH FLOODING ALONG AREA ROADWAYS AND HIGHWAYS WILL
LIKELY OCCUR. AREA RESIDENTS AND THOSE THAT MUST TRAVEL SHOULD
MONITOR THE LATEST WEATHER CONDITIONS...AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE LIFE
SAVING ACTIONS SHOULD FLOODING BE OBSERVED OR IF A WARNING IS
ISSUED.

TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN