Alert archive / Texas / Flash Flood Warnings in 2004
Flash Flood Warning 103, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
NWS Midland/Odessa, TX issued this flash flood warning at Jul 29, 2004, 8:48 PM CDT for Terrell County, Texas. It was in force for 3 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 29, 2004, 8:48 PM CDT (01:48 UTC)
- Expired
- Jul 29, 2004, 11:45 PM CDT
- In force
- 3 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
- Area
- Counties, with a storm outline in the text
County Terrell County, TX
Did it verify
Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this flash flood warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.
Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.
The nearest sounding before it
Del Rio, TX (KDRT), launched 00:00Z, 1.8 hours before the alert went out and 145 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 2983 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -18 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1261 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 17 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -23 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- -21 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
000
WGUS54 KMAF 300149
FFWMAF
TXC443-300445-
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
848 PM CDT THU JUL 29 2004
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIDLAND HAS ISSUED A
* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
TERRELL COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TEXAS
* UNTIL 1145 PM CDT
* AT 845 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR DETECTED
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING...9 MILES EAST
OF DRYDEN. THE STORMS PRODUCING THE HEAVY RAIN WERE NEARLY
STATIONARY. HOWEVER...THESE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
TO THE WEST AND SOUTH.
BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. ACT QUICKLY IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED. MOVE TO
HIGHER GROUND.
TO REPORT FLOODING OR SEVERE WEATHER ONLY... CALL THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN MIDLAND AT 1 800 597 3220.
LAT...LON 3025 10223 3010 10229 2995 10236 2983 10210
2984 10178 3023 10179 3050 10174
$$1 follow-up statement
000
WGUS74 KMAF 300347
FFSMAF
TXC443-300445-
FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1046 PM CDT THU JUL 29 2004
...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR TERRELL COUNTY WILL BE ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE...
AT 1042 PM CDT...THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING
HAVE DISSIPATED OR MOVED OUT OF TERRELL COUNTY. HOWEVER...RUNOFF MAY
CONTINUE TO RESULT IN FLOODING OF SOME LOW LYING AREAS ALONG
PORTIONS OF HIGHWAY 349 AND FM 2400.
BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. ACT QUICKLY IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED. MOVE TO
HIGHER GROUND.
TO REPORT FLOODING OR SEVERE WEATHER ONLY... CALL THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN MIDLAND AT 1 800 597 3220.
LAT...LON 3025 10223 3010 10229 2995 10236 2983 10210
2984 10178 3023 10179 3050 10174
$$What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Midland/Odessa, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Jul 29, 2:34 PM CDT, 6 hours 14 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jul 29, 2:34 PM CDT, 6 hours 14 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX 234 PM CDT THU JUL 29 2004 .SHORT TERM... WATER VAPOR DEPICTS UA TROF SLOWLY EDGING EWD WITH DRIER AIR INFILTRATING INTO NM WITH NW FLOW. 3H ISOTACHS INDICATE A 50KT JET LIFTING NE IN SW OK WITH WHAT LOOKS LIKE MAIN SHRTWV TROF MVG E ACRS PANHANDLES. SFC BOUNDARY INTO TRANS PECOS RGN WHERE MSAS SUGGEST BEST CONVERGENCE. MSAS ALSO DEPICTS SB INSTABILITY AXIS FROM SE NM INTO TRANS PECOS. ISOLD TSTM HAS DEVELOPED IN SE NM IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO UA TROF AXIS WITHIN SB INSTABILITY AXIS. BASED ON VISIBLE IMAGERY EXPECT THAT TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACRS LEA COUNTY AND MOVE SE WITH THE NARROW SB INSTABILITY AXIS. LOWER TRANS PECOS ALSO FAVORED WITH BEST POPS (40%) WHERE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE ALSO OCCURRING. PW/S STILL VERY HIGH (1.25) ACRS THE TRANS PECOS AND HVY RN STILL A CONCERN...WILL INCLUDE MENTION IN GRIDS/ZFP/HWO. .LONG TERM... VERY LITTLE DIFFERENCES NOTED AMONG THE MODEL SOLUTIONS THIS MORNING AND ALL APPEAR REASONABLY WELL INITIALIZED. THE OPERATIONAL GFS JIVES WITH THE EARLIER GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS REGARDING THE GROWTH AND EVENTUAL EASTWARD TRANSLATION OF AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. WHAT THIS WILL MEAN IS A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL LATE JULY AND EARLY AUGUST WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A BIT MORE EACH DAY AS THERMAL RIDGING ALOFT INCREASES AND WET SOILS DRY OUT. HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF DIURNAL THUNDER EACH DAY INVOF THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT BY SUNDAY... THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD HAVE BUILT EAST ENOUGH TO KEEP CONVECTION SUPPRESSED OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THEREAFTER...HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AFTER THAT DEPENDS A LOT ON WHAT GOES ON IN THE GULF... STAY TUNED. OVERALL THE GRIDS WERE IN GOOD SHAPE. HAVE RECONFIGURED POP... SKY...WX...AND QPF GRIDS TO REFLECT ABOVE REASONING. MAX AND MIN TEMPS WERE TWEAKED TOWARD A BLEND OF THE GFS/GFS ENSEMBLE VALUES... WHILE A GFS/GUIDANCE BLEND LOOKS COOL FOR WIND-RELATED FIELDS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BIG SPRING TX 67 94 70 96 / 20 10 10 10 CARLSBAD NM 66 96 69 97 / 20 20 20 10 DRYDEN TX 70 93 71 93 / 40 20 10 10 FORT STOCKTON TX 68 92 70 94 / 40 20 20 10 GUADALUPE PASS TX 63 90 68 89 / 20 20 20 20 HOBBS NM 65 95 69 97 / 30 10 10 10 MARFA TX 56 87 57 88 / 40 20 20 20 MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 66 92 70 95 / 30 10 10 10 ODESSA TX 66 94 70 96 / 30 10 10 10 WINK TX 69 97 73 100 / 30 10 10 10 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. NM...NONE. && 49/70
Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 29, 1:32 PM CDT, 7 hours 16 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX 132 PM CDT THU JUL 29 2004 NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075- 079>082-258-300500- ANDREWS-BIG BEND AREA-BORDEN-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-CRANE- DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-DAWSON-ECTOR-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-GAINES- GLASSCOCK-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY- HOWARD-LOVING-MARFA PLATEAU-MARTIN-MIDLAND-MITCHELL- NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-REAGAN- REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-SCURRY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY- TERRELL-UPTON-VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-WARD-WINKLER- 132 PM CDT (1232 PM MDT) THU JUL 29 2004 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE EVENING. MOST STORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO...THE LOWER TRANS PECOS AND EASTERN BIG BEND REGION WHERE DEEP MOISTURE IS STILL IN PLACE. LOCAL FLOODING OR FLASH FLOODING IS A CONCERN AS THE GROUND IS SATURATED. STORMS WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF LOCAL STRONG WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 55 MPH AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
Nearby
Flash Flood Warnings in Texas, 2004Every flash flood warning in 2004
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.