Flash Flood Warning 102, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

000 
WGUS74 KMAF 290818
FFSMAF
TXC415-291100-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
318 AM CDT THU JUL 29 2004

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 600 AM CDT FOR SCURRY
COUNTY...

AT 300 AM CDT...THE SCURRY COUNTY SHERIFFS OFFICE REPORTED THAT 
SEVERAL CITY STREETS IN SNYDER HAD BEEN CLOSED WITH BARRICADES DUE 
TO HIGH WATER. 

AT 314 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED 
THAT THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL HAD SHIFTED SOUTH OF SCURRY COUNTY. 
HOWEVER...LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL...WITH OCCASIONAL HEAVY 
RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 4 AM CDT. RUNOFF MAY POSE A THREAT OF 
ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING IN SNYDER AND ALONG MANY RURAL ROADWAYS.

MOTORISTS SHOULD NOT DRIVE AROUND BARRICADES TURN AROUND DONT DROWN

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE 
DANGERS OF FLOODING. ACT QUICKLY IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED. MOVE TO 
HIGHER GROUND.

LAT...LON 3294 10069 3293 10117 3257 10114 3254 10069

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
935 PM CDT WED JUL 28 2004

.UPDATE...
MCS TAKING SHAPE OVER SOUTHERN PLAINS NORTHWEST OF LUBBOCK THIS
EVENING... IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH 18Z ETA MODEL. 00Z ETA MODEL
CONTINUES STRONG MCS SIGNATURE DROPPING AS FAR SOUTH AS THE PERMIAN
BASIN BY DAYBREAK. UPDATED ZONE FORECAST FORTHCOMING TO EXPAND
HIGHER PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST BASED
ON APPARENTLY FASTER PROPAGATION OF MCS THAN SHOW BY MODEL. THREAT
OF EXCESSIVE PRECIPITATION CONTINUES WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER IN
EXCESS OF 1 1/2 INCHES AHEAD OF THE MCS. FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE
EXPANDED INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN.

.LONG TERM...
EXPECTING SOME SORT OF COMPLEX TO DEVELOP/MOVE THROUGH THE PERMIAN
BASIN DURING THE DAY TOMORROW AS THE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND DRAGS THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY BACK SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE RIO GRANDE. LATER SHIFTS MAY
HAVE TO RAISE POPS OR MENTION LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OR POTENTIAL
FLASH FLOODING TOMORROW. WILL CONTINUE TO GO LOWER THAN GUIDANCE
ON HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WITH RAIN AND A LOT OF CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED.

BEST POPS SHOULD SHIFT SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE RIO GRANDE TOMORROW
NIGHT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES TRANSLATE TOWARD THAT AREA
WITH THE REST OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA ON THE COOLER/SUBSIDENT
SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. ANOTHER SURGE POSSIBLE LATE TOMORROW ALONG
THE RIO GRANDE.

LOOKS LIKE QUIETER WEATHER PATTERN FRIDAY AND BEYOND WITH
INCREASING STABILITY IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH NO FRONTS AND
STEERING FLOW NOT CONDUCIVE FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT/MOVEMENT
FAR INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WOULD FAVOR
ISOLATED CONVECTION IN SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS...PERHAPS THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND ANTICIPATED BEYOND THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX             69  85  67  93 /  20  60  20   0
CARLSBAD NM               68  90  66  96 /  30  40  20  20
DRYDEN TX                 69  86  71  95 /  30  40  50  10
FORT STOCKTON TX          68  87  68  94 /  20  40  30  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX         63  78  63  89 /  30  30  20  20
HOBBS NM                  66  89  65  95 /  30  50  20  10
MARFA TX                  59  83  56  88 /  20  30  20  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX   69  84  66  93 /  20  60  20   0
ODESSA TX                 69  85  66  95 /  20  50  20   0
WINK TX                   70  90  70  98 /  20  50  20  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT TXZ045>048-050>053-059>063.
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT NMZ028-029-033-034.

&&

05

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
642 PM CDT WED JUL 28 2004

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-291000-
ANDREWS-BIG BEND AREA-BORDEN-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-CRANE-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-DAWSON-ECTOR-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-GAINES-
GLASSCOCK-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-
HOWARD-LOVING-MARFA PLATEAU-MARTIN-MIDLAND-MITCHELL-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-REAGAN-
REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-SCURRY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-
TERRELL-UPTON-VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-WARD-WINKLER-
642 PM CDT (542 PM MDT) WED JUL 28 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER...OR MOVE INTO...THE SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS AND
NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN TONIGHT.  SINCE COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAIN HAVE
FALLEN OVER THESE AREAS IN THE LAST FEW DAYS...FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
LIKELY IN THESE LOCATIONS IN THE EVENT OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL.

ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE WIDELY SCATTERED OVER
THE REST OF THE OUTLOOK AREA...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALIZED FLOODING...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE
GROUND IS SATURATED OVER MUCH OF WEST TEXAS FROM RECENT HEAVY RAINS.

A FLOODING WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE RIO GRANDE FROM NEAR
PRESIDIO...DOWNSTREAM TO NEAR LAJITAS.  NOTABLE RISES ON THE RIO
GRANDE WILL PERSIST FROM LAJITAS...DOWNSTREAM AROUND THE BIG BEND
AND THROUGH THE HEATH CANYON AREA.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND DEADLY LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR
ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW
MEXICO THURSDAY.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
FROM THE WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS...SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE EASTERN
PERMIAN BASIN...AND INTO THE BIG BEND REGION.  ISOLATED FLOODING OF
LOW LYING AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS EVENING.  SPOTTER GROUPS AND
EMERGENCY MANAGERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO MONITOR THE LATEST WEATHER
INFORMATION AND BE PREPARED SHOULD HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING
THREATEN THE AREA.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...AND
STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN MIDLAND
CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT http://www.srh.noaa.gov/maf.