Severe Thunderstorm Warning 246, NWS St. Louis, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
115 PM CDT TUE AUG 17 2004

.DISCUSSION...
A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM THE NEW ENGLAND
STATES ACROSS THE TN VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON.  A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM SOUTHEAST IA ACROSS
NORTHWEST MO INTO CENTRAL KS. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY
SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT AND DISSIPATE. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF MO WEDNESDAY EVENING. BY THURSDAY
MORNING, THE UKMET AND ETA ARE FAIRLY CLOSE WITH THE FRONTAL
POSITION WITH THE FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN OZARKS WITH THE GFS
FURTHER NORTH. EXPECT THIS FRONT TO STALL OUT BEFORE FINALLY
CLEARING THE STATE FRIDAY NIGHT. A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH WILL BUILD
INTO THE MIDWEST ON SATURDAY.

CLUSTER OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ROLLED ACROSS THE OZARKS DURING THE
MORNING AND HAVE NOW CLEARED THE FORECAST AREA. CLUSTER HELPED ALONG
BY SHORT WAVE ALOFT AND HIGHER MOISTURE. ETA SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD
HANDLE ON CURRENT CONVECTION. MODEL IS FORECASTING DECENT 850
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE INTO EAST MO/IL THIS EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED OVER SOUTHEAST IA AND EXTREME
NORTHEAST MO AHEAD OF TROUGH AXIS.

THE MSAS AT NOON INDICATED THE BEST INSTABILITY ACROSS NORTH
MO/SOUTHEAST IA. SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE RETURNED TO 70 ON ONCE
AGAIN. A DECENT SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AXIS WAS ALSO LOCATED
ACROSS THAT AREA.  WW WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
317 PM CDT TUE AUG 17 2004

ILZ058-095>098-MOZ018-019-026-027-034>036-041-042-047-048-050>052-
180959-
ADAMS IL-AUDRAIN-BOONE-BROWN-CALHOUN IL-CALLAWAY-COLE-GREENE IL-KNOX-
LEWIS-LINCOLN-MARION-MONITEAU-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-PIKE-PIKE IL-RALLS-
SHELBY-
317 PM CDT TUE AUG 17 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN
MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM...OTHERWISE
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGHOUT THE EVENING HOURS.  FEW STORMS CAN REACH SEVERE LEVEL
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.  MAIN THREAT
OF THESE STORMS WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY WIND AND LARGE HAIL.

ALSO THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ROUGHLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A
LINE FROM COLUMBIA MISSOURI TO JUST NORTH OF ST LOUIS TO SALEM
ILLINOIS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING LATE WEDNESDAY
AND CONTINUE EACH DAY UNTIL LATE FRIDAY.  ANOTHER COOL FRONT WILL
ADVANCE TOWARDS OUR REGION LATE ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN LINGER THROUGH
LATE WEEK.  AT THIS TIME...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS NORTHEAST
MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...WHERE THE ADVANCING COOL FRONT
WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR STORMS IN A VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE.

.SPOTTER ACTIVATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS,

ILZ059-060-064-065-069-070-074-079-099>102-MOZ049-059>065-072>075-
084-085-099-180959-
BOND IL-CLINTON IL-CRAWFORD-FAYETTE IL-FRANKLIN-GASCONADE-IRON-
JEFFERSON-JERSEY IL-MACOUPIN IL-MADISON-MADISON IL-MARION IL-
MONROE IL-MONTGOMERY IL-OSAGE-RANDOLPH IL-REYNOLDS-ST CHARLES-
ST CLAIR IL-ST FRANCOIS-ST LOUIS-ST LOUIS CITY-STE GENEVIEVE-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WASHINGTON IL-
317 PM CDT TUE AUG 17 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AS WELL AS SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

ISOLATED ARE POSSIBLE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE
EVENING HOURS.  AT THIS TIME STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SEVERE LEVEL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING LATE WEDNESDAY
AND CONTINUE EACH DAY UNTIL LATE FRIDAY.  ANOTHER COOL FRONT WILL
ADVANCE TOWARDS OUR REGION LATE ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN LINGER THROUGH
LATE WEEK.  AT THIS TIME...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS NORTHEAST
MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...WHERE THE ADVANCING COOL FRONT
WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR STORMS IN A VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE.

.SPOTTER ACTIVATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NOT NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.