Alert archive / Illinois / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2004

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 166, NWS St. Louis, MO

May 31, 2004Fayette County, Illinois

NWS St. Louis, MO issued this severe thunderstorm warning at May 31, 2004, 8:36 PM CDT for Fayette County, Illinois. It was in force for 39 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: May 31, 2004, 8:36 PM CDT (01:36 UTC)
Expired: May 31, 2004, 9:15 PM CDT
In force: 39 min
Issued by: NWS St. Louis, MO
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Fayette County, IL

The radar

The Lincoln radar (KILX), 120 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:37 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Lincoln, IL (KILX), launched 00:00Z, 1.6 hours before the alert went out and 123 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 231 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -2 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 2205 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 19 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 79 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 94 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

880 
WUUS53 KLSX 010136
SVRLSX
ILC051-010215-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
836 PM CDT MON MAY 31 2004

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  NORTHERN FAYETTE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS

* UNTIL 915 PM CDT

* AT 836 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 10 MILES WEST OF RAMSEY...MOVING EAST AT 45
  MPH. THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THIS STORM WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  RAMSEY
  BROWNSTOWN
  WRIGHTS CORNER
  ST. ELMO

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...
DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR YOUR
PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME
OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE INTO
AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

LAT...LON 3922 8926 3893 8926 3891 8870 3921 8865

$$

FG

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS St. Louis, MO wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at May 31, 3:40 PM CDT, 4 hours 56 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 31, 3:40 PM CDT, 4 hours 56 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
340 PM CDT MON MAY 31 2004

MDLS ARE IN FAIRLY GD AGREEMENT THAT UA PTRN THRU MUCH OF THIS WORK
WEEK WL BE DOMINATED BY UPR LO...FIRST ANCHORED OVR UPR MS
VLY...THEN OPENING UP A BIT AND DROPPING INTO OHIO VLY.

PERHAPS THE MOST DFCLT PART OF FCST IS TRYING TO PIN DOWN PCPN
THRT.  BLV THAT DIURNALLY DRIVEN -SHRA/-TSRA OVR N AREAS WL DSPT
THIS EVE...WITH THIS PCPN TREND REPEATING ITSELF OVR N AREAS ON TUE.
HWVR...BY TUE EVE AS UPR TROF SAGS INTO AREA THINK THAT SM PCPN WL
CONT INTO THE OVRNGT HRS...AND PERHAPS DROP INTO S AREAS.  AFTER
LOOKING AT THE 18Z SFC MAP...ALSO NOTICED THAT MSTR TO THE S OF THE
STALLED FNTL BNDRY ISNT ALL THAT FAR AWAY...AND A BIT OF RETURN LO
LVL FLOW AHD OF TROF MAY PULL SM OF THAT INSTABILITY BACK INTO OUR
FAR S AREAS.  ALTHO MDL OUTPUT DOESNT PULL THE MSTR AND INSTABILITY
THAT FAR N...THEY OFTEN DO NOT HNDL THIS TYPE OF SITN VRY WELL.

IT APRS THAT LOTS OF CLDS WL DROP SWD ACR AREA ON WED AS UPR TROF
SAGS S.  COULDNT RULE OUT A FEW MORE SHWRS ATTM...BUT AMS DOESNT
LK QUITE AS UNSTBL AS MID LVL TEMPS BGN TO WRM AND XTNSV CLD CVR WL
LIMIT HTG.

TEMPS ON TUE SHUD BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF TDA...BUT SHUD DROP 5-10
DEGREES BY WED DUE TO THE CLDS AND THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLDER AIR
ASSOC WITH THE UPR TROF.

FOR THE LTR HLF OF THE WEEK...APRS TEMPS SHUD SLOLY MODERATE AS HGTS
RBND ACR AREA.  PTRN MAY BCM ACTIVE ONCE AGAIN BY NXT WEEKEND AS
RETURN FLO BGNS OVRRUNNING OF FNT THAT MDLS SUGGEST WL RMN S OF
CWA.  HOPEFULLY...WELL BE RESTED UP BY THEN.

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.MO...NONE
.IL...NONE

TRUETT

EFFECTIVE 7 AM JUNE 8 2004...THE AWIPS PRODUCT IDENTIFIER FOR THIS
PRODUCT WILL CHANGE FROM AFDSTL TO AFDLSX.  THE WMO HEADER WILL
REMAIN UNCHANGED. PLEASE ENSURE THAT ANY NEEDED CHANGES ARE
COMPLETED BY JUNE 8 2004.

Hazardous weather outlook, May 31, 4:00 PM CDT, 4 hours 36 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
400 PM CDT MON MAY 31 2004

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-011100-
ADAMS IL-AUDRAIN-BOND IL-BOONE-BROWN-CALHOUN IL-CALLAWAY-CLINTON IL-
COLE-CRAWFORD-FAYETTE IL-FRANKLIN-GASCONADE-GREENE IL-IRON-JEFFERSON-
JERSEY IL-KNOX-LEWIS-LINCOLN-MACOUPIN IL-MADISON-MADISON IL-MARION-
MARION IL-MONITEAU-MONROE-MONROE IL-MONTGOMERY-MONTGOMERY IL-OSAGE-
PIKE-PIKE IL-RALLS-RANDOLPH IL-REYNOLDS-SHELBY-ST CHARLES-
ST CLAIR IL-ST FRANCOIS-ST LOUIS-ST LOUIS CITY-STE GENEVIEVE-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WASHINGTON IL-
400 PM CDT MON MAY 31 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI
AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHEAST
MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AS AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA.  THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE...
ALTHOUGH A FEW MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING
STRIKES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND
WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AGAIN ON TUESDAY...AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
ON TUESDAY NIGHT.  AFTER A WELCOME DRY SPELL THROUGH THE WORK WEEK...
A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED FOR TONIGHT.

CARNEY

In the hours before

Local storm report, May 31, 8:08 PM CDT, 28 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
808 PM CDT MON MAY 31 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0755 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 SE ALTON              38.87N 90.11W
05/31/2004                   MADISON            IL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LARGE TREE DOWN IN COTTAGE HILL

&&

CVKING

Local storm report, May 31, 8:08 PM CDT, 28 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
808 PM CDT MON MAY 31 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0755 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 SE ALTON              38.87N 90.11W
05/31/2004                   MADISON            IL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LARGE TREE DOWN IN COTTAGE HILL

&&

CVKING

Local storm report, May 31, 8:13 PM CDT, 23 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
813 PM CDT MON MAY 31 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0801 PM     TSTM WND DMG     GILLESPIE               39.13N 89.82W
05/31/2004                   MACOUPIN           IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LARGE BRANCHES DOWN

0801 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 NW LITCHFIELD         39.21N 89.70W
05/31/2004  70 MPH           MONTGOMERY         IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

CVKING

Local storm report, May 31, 8:13 PM CDT, 23 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
813 PM CDT MON MAY 31 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0801 PM     TSTM WND DMG     GILLESPIE               39.13N 89.82W
05/31/2004                   MACOUPIN           IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LARGE BRANCHES DOWN

0801 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 NW LITCHFIELD         39.21N 89.70W
05/31/2004  70 MPH           MONTGOMERY         IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

CVKING

Local storm report, May 31, 8:34 PM CDT, 2 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
834 PM CDT MON MAY 31 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0820 PM     TSTM WND GST     6 W NOKOMIS             39.30N 89.40W
05/31/2004  60 MPH           MONTGOMERY         IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

0830 PM     TSTM WND GST     FLORISSANT              38.80N 90.32W
05/31/2004  60 MPH           ST. LOUIS          MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

CVKING

Local storm report, May 31, 8:34 PM CDT, 2 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
834 PM CDT MON MAY 31 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0820 PM     TSTM WND GST     6 W NOKOMIS             39.30N 89.40W
05/31/2004  60 MPH           MONTGOMERY         IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

0830 PM     TSTM WND GST     FLORISSANT              38.80N 90.32W
05/31/2004  60 MPH           ST. LOUIS          MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

CVKING

The office that day

Everything else NWS St. Louis, MO issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 31, 7:00 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LSX	Calhoun, Greene, Jersey	60 min
May 31, 7:37 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LSX	Macoupin, Madison	38 min
May 31, 8:02 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LSX	Montgomery	43 min
May 31, 8:38 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LSX	Madison	52 min
May 31, 8:47 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LSX	Saint Clair	43 min
May 31, 10:17 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LSX	Monroe, Saint Clair	43 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Illinois, 2004 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2004

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.