Flash Flood Warning 13, NWS Chicago, IL

000 
WGUS73 KLOT 210145
FFSLOT
ILC007-031-037-043-089-103-111-141-210445-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL
838 PM CDT THU MAY 20 2004

THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR BOONE AND MCHENRY COUNTIES 
IN ILLINOIS TILL 10:15 PM CDT

THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR LEE...OGLE...DEKALB...AND
KANE COUNTIES ILLINOIS TILL 10:30 PM CDT

THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR DUPAGE AND COOK COUNTIES 
IN ILLINOIS TILL 11:00 PM CDT. 

AT 838 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL FROM MALTA ILLINOIS TO EVANSTON
ILLINOIS AND LINCOLN PARK IN CHICAGO. THERE HAVE BEEN RAINFALL 
AMOUNTS OF UP TO TWO TO TWO AND A HALF INCHES OF RAIN AN HOUR 
WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS. 

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING ON FLOOD PRONE
HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES. NEVER WALK OR DRIVE INTO FLOODED
AREAS AND ABANDON VEHICLES CAUGHT IN RISING WATERS.

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING NEAR STREAMS...CREEKS AND
NEARBY FARMLAND. BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS ON COUNTY ROADS AND IN LOW
LYING AREAS. NEVER CROSS AREAS IN WHICH WATER COVERS THE ROADS.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLASH FLOODS. IT IS VERY DIFFICULT AT NIGHT TO JUDGE HOW
MUCH WATER COVERS ROADWAYS. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS FLOODED ROADWAYS.

REPORT FLASH FLOODING TO YOUR LOCAL ESDA...OR THE NEAREST LAW
ENFORCEMENT AGENCY...FOR RELAY TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. STAY
TUNED FOR LATER STATEMENTS.

LAT...LON 4239 8826 4216 8824 4196 8764 4177 8901
          4211 8901
$$

WILSON

NNNN

000 
WGUS73 KLOT 210257
FFSLOT
ILC007-031-037-043-089-103-111-141-210545-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL
949 PM CDT THU MAY 20 2004

THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR BOONE AND MCHENRY COUNTIES 
IN ILLINOIS TILL 10:15 PM CDT

THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR LEE...OGLE...DEKALB...AND
KANE COUNTIES ILLINOIS TILL 10:30 PM CDT

THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR DUPAGE AND COOK COUNTIES 
IN ILLINOIS TILL 11:00 PM CDT. 


AT 949 PM CDT...THUNDERSTORMS WERE FROM PAW PAW TO ASHTON ILLINOIS 
AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. OTHER THUNDERSTORMS WERE FROM WAUCONDA 
ILLINOIS TO WINNETKA ILLINOIS AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. THERE HAVE 
BEEN 10 INCHES OF FAST MOVING WATER ACROSS ROADS ON THE NORTH SIDE 
OF MAPLE PARK ILLINOIS. THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL CAPABLE OF 
PRODUCING TWO INCHES OF RAIN AN HOUR.  

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING ON FLOOD PRONE
HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES. NEVER WALK OR DRIVE INTO FLOODED
AREAS AND ABANDON VEHICLES CAUGHT IN RISING WATERS.

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING NEAR STREAMS...CREEKS AND
NEARBY FARMLAND. BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS ON COUNTY ROADS AND IN LOW
LYING AREAS. NEVER CROSS AREAS IN WHICH WATER COVERS THE ROADS.

REPORT FLASH FLOODING TO YOUR LOCAL ESDA...OR THE NEAREST LAW
ENFORCEMENT AGENCY...FOR RELAY TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. STAY
TUNED FOR LATER STATEMENTS.

LAT...LON 4231 8886 4181 8902 4183 8768 4209 8777
          4215 8835 4228 8884
$$

WILSON

NNNN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL
639 PM CDT THU MAY 20 2004

.DISCUSSION FOR AFTERNOON GRIDS...

MAJOR CONCERNS FOR THIS FORECAST WILL CENTER ON SEVERE WEATHER
CHANCES AND HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL.

SYNOPTIC SCALE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AT 19Z EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN
LAKE MICHIGAN SOUTHWEST INTO EAST CENTRAL IOWA. AXIS OF SURFACE
PRESSURE RISES ON ORDER OF 2-4 MB BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY AND SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SEE BOUNDARY SAG SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING AND HIGHLY
SHEARED NORTHERN STREAM VORT MAX ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN CANADA
CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST. ANOTHER VORT MAX WHICH WILL HAVE TO BE
WATCHED THIS EVENING IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHWEST IOWA AND
THIS WAVE SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST THIS EVENING INTO
NORTHWEST ILLINOIS. PLENTY OF ACCAS NOTED IN VIS IMAGERY ACROSS
CENTRAL/EASTERN IOWA EXTENDING INTO NORTHWEST ILLINOIS. RUC
SOUNDINGS/SPC MESO ANALYSIS/AND SPECIAL 18Z SOUNDING FROM KDVN
INDICATING CAP STRENGTH HAS SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENED BENEATH MID/UPPER
LEVEL ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WITH STRONGER CAP REMAINING IN PLACE IN
STRONGER MID LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE ACROSS CENTRAL IL. SB CAPES BETWEEN
4000-5000 J/KG ACROSS CWA WITH PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO WORK
WITH. AS SW IOWA WAVE CONTINUES TO LIFT INTO CWA TONIGHT...EXPECT
CONTINUED MID LEVEL COOLING AND INITIATION OF THUNDERSTORMS SOMETIME
IN THE 21Z-23Z TIME FRAME. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SUPPORT SEVERE
WEATHER TONIGHT...AND HEAVY RAIN ALSO A CONCERN WITH PWATS POOLING
UP TO AROUND 1.75 INCHES AHEAD OF MAIN SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY. WILL
CONTINUE FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 17Z FRIDAY GIVEN SEVERAL LOCATIONS
ACROSS FAR NE IL AT OR ABOVE FLOOD STAGE FROM PREVIOUS HEAVY RAINS.
BOUNDARY WILL DROP INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CWA LATE THIS
EVENING...BUT RUC/MESOETA STILL DEPICTING LOW LEVEL WAA ACROSS CWA
NORTH OF SURFACE BOUNDARY.

ON FRIDAY LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN PUTTING CWA BACK IN WARM SECTOR. TEMPS SHOULD
EASILY WARM INTO MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CWA.
GIVEN UNSTABLE AIR SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL RETAIN CHANCE POPS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 88 INTO THE AFTERNOON AS MID LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS BACK INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS LIMITING CONVECTIVE CHANCES ACROSS
SOUTHERN CWA. FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF
CWA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY BUT CONVECTIVE CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE
AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS STRONGER MID LEVEL WAVE IS
PROGGED TO EJECT NORTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SOME
INDICATIONS OF POSSIBLE UPPER JET COUPLING BETWEEN NORTHERN/SOUTHERN
STREAMS LATE FRIDAY AS THIS MID LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES. WILL KEEP ESF
GOING TO MENTION POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN THROUGH SUNDAY.

WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH CWA MONDAY MORNING BRINGING END
TO RAIN CHANCES BEFORE NEXT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS LATE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY WITH NEXT MID LEVEL WAVE. WILL KEEP CHANCE FOR TUESDAY
AND KEEP MONDAY DRY UNTIL BETTER CONSISTENCY BECOMES ESTABLISHED.
TREND TO THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES AS WESTERN
CONUS LONGWAVE TROUGH AMPLIFIES BRINGING COOLER AIR BEHIND YET
ANOTHER POSSIBLE SHORT WAVE PASSAGE FOR MID WEEK. WILL ALSO KEEP
WED/THU DRY FOR NOW.

NDM

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR 00Z TAFS...COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN WI...
SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTHERN IA THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
MAINLY ALONG COLD FRONT AND EXPECT BEST TIMING 00Z-03Z RFD AND
01Z-05Z CHICAGO AREA TERMINALS. HAVE REMOVED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AS
EXPECT BEST PUSH OF PRECIP TO BE WITH THE FRONT...THOUGH A STRAY
SHOWER CAN/T BE RULED OUT. FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST AND
SHOULD BE SOUTH OF MDW/GYY 04Z-05Z OR SO. SW WINDS AROUND 10KTS
SHIFT NW WITH FROPA THEN NE BY MIDNIGHT WITH SPEEDS 10-15KTS. LOW
CLOUDS OFF LK MI BEHIND FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS NORTHERN IL
OVERNIGHT AND EXPECT IFR CIGS THRU SUNRISE GRADUALLY LIFTING TO MVFR
DURING THE MORNING AS WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTH DURING THE DAY.

&&

.LOT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...FLOOD WATCH ALL IL CWA THROUGH 17Z FRIDAY.
IN...FLOOD WATCH ALL IN CWA THROUGH 17Z FRIDAY.
LK MI...NONE.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL
343 PM CDT THU MAY 20 2004

ILZ003>006-008-010>014-019>023-032-033-039-INZ001-002-010-011-
019-211100-
BENTON-BOONE-COOK-DE KALB-DU PAGE-FORD-GRUNDY-IROQUOIS-JASPER-
KANE-KANKAKEE-KENDALL-LA SALLE-LAKE-LAKE IN-LEE-LIVINGSTON-
MCHENRY-NEWTON-OGLE-PORTER-WILL-WINNEBAGO-
343 PM CDT THU MAY 20 2004

THIS PORTION OF THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...AND NORTHWEST INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH 12 PM
CDT ON FRIDAY. THERE IS THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF NUMEROUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION HAS INHIBITED THE DEVELOPMENT OF
STORMS THUS FAR THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER RECENT CLEARING IN THE
EXISTING LOW CLOUD COVER AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS
ALLOWING FOR SLOW DESTABILIZATION OF THE AIRMASS. THE
DESTABILIZATION WILL ALLOW FOR A WINDOW OF RAPID THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH TONIGHT. STORMS THAT DEVELOP HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY
LARGE HAIL...SEVERE WIND AND HEAVY RAINFALL. ADDITIONALLY THERE
WILL BE A LOW THREAT OF TORNADOES WITH ANY STORMS THAT MAY BECOME
SUPERCELLULAR...PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FIRST OVER NORTHWEST ILLINOIS AND
SPREAD EAST AT 25 TO 30 MPH. DUE TO THE SEVERE THREAT A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CDT.

LATER TONIGHT A SECOND ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THAT WILL MOVE EAST OUT OF IOWA. LARGE HAIL...SEVERE WINDS AND
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE LIKELY...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3
INCHES POSSIBLE. AMOUNTS OVER 2 INCHES MAY PRODUCE LOCAL
FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE JUST NORTH OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY
EVENING ALLOWING FOR A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO CONTINUE OVER
THE REGION. THE AIRMASS COMBINED WITH A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL ALLOW FOR THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

&&

COMPLETE FORECAST INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE
NWS CHICAGO WEBPAGE: WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/LOT (LOWER CASE)

LMZ740>746-766-211100-
WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR-WILMETTE HARBOR TO NORTHERLY
ISLAND-NORTHERLY ISLAND TO CALUMET HARBOR-CALUMET HARBOR TO GARY-
GARY TO BURNS HARBOR-BURNS HARBOR TO MICHIGAN CITY-MICHIGAN CITY
TO NEW BUFFALO-LAKE MICHIGAN-
343 PM CDT THU MAY 20 2004

THIS PORTION OF THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE ILLINOIS
AND INDIANA WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVE OVER THE LAKE. ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS ALSO EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

&&

COMPLETE FORECAST INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE
NWS CHICAGO WEBPAGE: WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/LOT (LOWER CASE)

AEP