Flash Flood Warning 5, NWS Lake Charles, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
715 PM CDT TUE MAY 11 2004

.UPDATE...SPC WILL ALLOW THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH TO EXPIRE. THE
LEADING EDGE OF A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A VORT MAX IS
ALONG THE SABINE RIVER MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST AT 30 TO 35 MPH INTO
WESTERN LOUISIANA. FROM VARIOUS REPORTS LINE HAS PRODUCED WIND GUSTS
BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING AS IT MOVED THROUGH SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

OTHER THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS LINE IN
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA WHERE ATMOSPHERE HAS NOT YET
BEEN WORKED OVER. LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWS CAPE VALUES IN THESE AREA
STILL AROUND 2500 J/KG. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME PULSE TYPE STORMS
OVER THE NEXT HOUR IN THESE AREAS...HOWEVER WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING CAPE VALUES SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE. MAIN CONCERN WITH
STORMS THIS EVENING WILL PROBABLY BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL (RADAR
SHOWS RATES BETWEEN 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR) AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING. WILL MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE ZONES.

&&

.UPDATED POINT TEMPS/POPS...
LCH  70  84  70  84 /  80  40  20  40
BPT  71  84  71  83 /  80  40  20  40
AEX  68  84  68  84 /  80  50  30  40
LFT  70  83  69  84 /  60  50  30  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.

07-RUA

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...RADAR THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS COMBINATION OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND A MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE HAS PRODUCED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH A MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW VORT MAX/MCS JUST WEST OF
HOUSTON MOVING OFF TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WILL CONTINUE LIKELY POPS INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS
SHORT WAVE/VORT MAX MOVES ACROSS. WITH HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT (GOES
SOUNDER PWAT AROUND 1.7 TO 1.9 INCHES) COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH HOURLY RAINFALL RATES BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 INCHES PER
HOUR. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE BY MIDNIGHT AS SHORT WAVE
ENERGY PASSES.

SHORT WAVE ON WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND THIS IS WHERE THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL
OCCUR. EVEN THOUGH WESTERN ZONES MAY SEE SOME NVA IN WAKE OF THE
SHORT WAVE EARLY ON...STILL HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND DAYTIME HEATING
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG THE SEABREEZE THAT WILL GRADUALLY
PUSH INLAND.

SIMILAR PATTERN IS SEEN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHEAST US
WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND IT PROVIDING GULF MOISTURE OVER THE
REGION. DAYTIME HEATING WILL PROVIDE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES WILL BE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY AS FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE
FORECAST AREA BUT SHOULD STALL TO THE NORTHWEST. FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
LIKELY HELP PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

PATTERN IS PROGGED TO CHANGE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND DRIER AIR EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

07-RUA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
600 AM CDT TUE MAY 11 2004

GMZ450-455-470-475-LAZ027>033-041>045-051>055-TXZ180>182-201-215-216-
121100-
ACADIA-ALLEN-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-CALCASIEU-CAMERON-
CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX OUT 20 NM-EVANGELINE-HARDIN-IBERIA-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JEFFERSON DAVIS-LAFAYETTE-
LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO CAMERON, LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO CAMERON, LA OUT 20 NM-LOWER ST MARTIN-
NEWTON-ORANGE-RAPIDES-ST LANDRY-ST MARY-TYLER-UPPER ST MARTIN-
VERMILION-VERNON-
600 AM CDT TUE MAY 11 2004

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON.
MEAN AREAL RAINWATER AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 1/2 INCH ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL LOUISIANA TO 1 1/2 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. LOCAL
AMOUNTS FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MORE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO ISOLATED SHORT-LIVED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY. ONCE AGAIN,
ISOLATED SHORT-LIVED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER,
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT LIKELY.  HIT-OR-MISS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS, HAM RADIO OPERATORS, AND EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS...IS
NOT REQUESTED AT THIS TIME.

21