Flash Flood Warning 78, NWS JSJ

000 
WGCA72 TJSJ 142206
FFSSJU
PRC015-025-035-041-057-095-109-123-129-151-142300-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
605 PM AST SUN NOV 14 2004

THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING ISSUED EARLIER FOR THE MUNICIPALITIES OF 

     CAGUAS
     CIDRA
     CAYEY
     ARROYO
     PATILLAS
     MAUNABO
     SAN LORENZO
     YABUCOA
     GUAYAMA
     SALINAS

 UNTIL 615 PM AST

...HAS EXPIRED...

AT 600 PM AST THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A 
DECREASE IN THE INTENSITY OF THE PRECIPITATION AND THE U.S.G.S. 
RIVER LEVELS SENSORS INDICATED A DECREASE IN THE LEVELS OF THE 
RIVERS AND STREAMS WITHIN THAT AREA FORMER WARNED AREA. 

FOR THAT REASON THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING ISSUED FOR THE 
MUNICIPALITIES ABOVE HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. 

$$

RIVERA

PUERTO RICO AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1000 AM AST SUN NOV 14 2004

UPDATE...NO MAJOR REASON TO CHANGE SHORT TERM FORECAST. AT LEAST
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM
THE NORTHEAST BRINGING MOISTURE TOWARDS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS. LATEST ETA AND GFS RUN BRING A CHANGE IN THE LOW
LEVEL WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. IF THE
WINDS DO TURN TO THE NORTH AS SUGGESTED BY MODEL DRIER AIR WILL
INTRUDE INTO THE AREA. IF NOT...THEN WE WILL NOT SEE A SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE IN THE WEATHER. THERE IS AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED
OVER THE CARIBBEAN WELL SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO. MID AND UPPER LEVEL
WINDS ARE BRINGING THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TOWARDS PUERTO RICO. WILL
CONTINUE FLOOD WATCHES AND WARNINGS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL
AS THE WIND ADVISORY. COASTAL FLOOD WARNING TO BE REPLACED WITH
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH. HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT./RM

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LLVL CONFIGURATION OF ELONGATED TROUGHING ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL
AND E CARIB AND HIGH TO THE NW IS MAINTAINING THE PERSISTENT PATTERN
OF STRONG NELY LLVL WIND FLOW AND INTERMITTENT BANDS AND CLUSTERS OF
SHOWERS. MID LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE ATLANTIC TO OUR NE IS ACTING
TO ENHANCE SOME OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ADVECTING INTO THE AREA...AND
THEN IS BEING FURTHER SHEARED AND BRIEFLY ENHANCED BY SWLY FLOW
ALOFT LOCALLY. MORNING STLT IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT NUMEROUS CLUSTERS
OF SHOWERS WILL ADVECT INTO THE LOCAL AREA THROUGHOUT THE MORNING
BEFORE DIMINISHING IN FREQUENCY THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED CELLS
OVERNIGHT HAVE BRIEFLY GROWN ABOVE 30K FEET AND THIS WILL LIKELY BE
THE CASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY. STRONG ONSHORE FLOW AND HIGH
FREQUENCY OF SHOWERS WILL MAINTAIN FLOODING POTENTIAL THROUGH THIS
EVENING. A GRADUAL DECREASE IN SHOWER FREQUENCY SHOULD THEN BE SEEN
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY...WITH GFS SUGGESTING ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT
CLOUD BAND MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. ANOTHER EAST COAST LOW IS
FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE CONTINENT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND IS
FORECAST TO BRING A COLD FRONT INTO THE LOCAL AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
UPPER PATTERN ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN THE SURFACE
CONFIGURATION OF TROUGHING TO OUR EAST AND MAINTAIN A N TO NE WIND
FLOW THROUGH THE END OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK...SO A COOL BREEZY
AND SHOWERY WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR SEVERAL MORE
DAYS. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION NEXT
WEEKEND BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT TO BRING ABOUT A RETURN TO
EASTERLY WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
A PERSISTENT NNE TO NE FLOW TO THE WEST OF THE ELONGATED TROUGH HAS
MAINTAINED A WIND FETCH FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC EXTENDING INTO THE
LOCAL MARINE AREA...AND HAS CONTINUED TO GENERATE HIGH AND ROUGH
SEAS. A FEW REGIONAL SHIP OBS HAVE REPORTED WIND AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS
AND SEAS AS HIGH AS 5 METERS DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS...BUT THESE
SEEM A BIT HIGH...AND WOULD EXPECT 12-14 FEET WOULD BE THE MAX SWH
THAT WE HAVE SEEN DURING THIS EXTENDED EVENT. WINDS LOCALLY HAVE
DECREASED BY A FEW KNOTS IN THE PAST 24 HOURS AND ARE FORECAST TO
DECREASE A BIT FURTHER TODAY THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN.
SEAS WILL SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY DURING THIS TIME TO MORE MANAGEABLE
HEIGHTS...BEFORE BUILDING AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT IN NORTH
NORTHWEST SWELL GENERATED BEHIND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SEAS
COULD PEAK DURING THAT TIME AT 9 OR 10 FEET AGAIN...AND ARE NOT
FORECAST TO DROP BELOW 7 FEET ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC THROUGH
SUNDAY THE 21ST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ALL SOILS BUT THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST SLOPES OF PUERTO RICO REMAIN
WET AND SOGGY...AND THE CONTINUOUS NE FLOW WILL DEPOSIT ADDITIONAL
RAINS OF ONE TO THREE INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN SLOPES AND INTERIOR
OF P.R. TODAY...WITH SLIGHTLY LESSER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN VIRGIN ISLANDS AND CULEBRA...VIEQUES. STRONG NELY FLOW AND
HIGH SURF CONTINUE TO BLOCK THE OUTFLOW OF RIVER DISCHARGE ALONG THE
NORTH COAST OF P.R. AND LOCAL RIVERS CONTINUE TO BACK UP INTO THE
INTERIOR THIS MORNING. RIVER FLOOD WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MUCH
OF E...NE...AND N CENTRAL P.R. THIS MORNING AND WILL LIKELY WORSEN
TODAY. AS WINDS RELAX AND SHOWERS DECREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE A BIT...BUT DO NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT
LOWERING OF RIVER LEVELS AND SOIL DRYING UNTIL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  83  74  86  74 /  70  60  40  60
STT  83  76  86  76 /  70  60  40  50

&&

.SJU WATCHES/ADVISORIES...
PR...FFA PRZ001-002-004>006-008>010. CFW AND HSA PRZ001-002-005-008-
010-012-013. WIND ADVSRY FOR ELEV ABOVE 1000 FT PRZALL. SCA AMZALL.
VI...CFW VIZ001. CFA VIZ002. HSA VIZALL. SCA AMZ710>730.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
600 AM AST SUN NOV 14 2004

PRZ001>013-AMZ710>750-151100-
600 AM AST SUN NOV 14 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PUERTO RICO.

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...

A BROAD AND ELONGATED AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA WILL DRIFT NORTHEAST TODAY...AS STRONG SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BUILDS INTO THE LOCAL AREA.  THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO HAS MAINTAINED A STRONG NORTHEAST
TO NORTH NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW OVER THE PUERTO RICO THE LAST
FEW DAYS...BUT THIS WILL BEGIN TO EASE AS THE DAY WEARS ON. FOR THE
TIME BEING...A HIGH WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ELEVATIONS
GREATER THAN 1000 FT. THIS ADVISORY MAY BE LOWERED LATER TODAY.

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS
...WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.  THESE WILL PRODUCE SPORADIC...HEAVY RAINS
...WHICH COULD AGGRAVATE SWOLLEN RIVERS AND AN ALREADY SATURATED
GROUND. THE RISK OF FLOODING ALONG OR NEAR AREA RIVERS REMAINS
HIGH...AND THEREFORE A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT OVER MOST OF
THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE ISLAND.

LONG PERIOD NORTH NORTHEAST SWELLS...COMBINED WITH STRONG NORTHEAST
WINDS...IS ALSO CONTRIBUTING TO DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND VERY
ROUGH SEAS. WAVE HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 11 FEET...WITH BREAKING WAVES OF 10
TO PERHAPS 16 FEET WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS EARLY TODAY BEFORE SLOWLY DECREASING. THE POTENTIAL FOR
COASTAL FLOODING AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE WILL ALSO PERSIST. FOR
THIS REASON...A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING FOR NORTHERN COASTAL AREAS OF PUERTO RICO...
VIEQUES ...AND CULEBRA. IN ADDITION ...HIGH SURF AND SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT TO EMPHASIZE ADDITIONAL HAZARDS THAT
MARINERS AND BEACHGOERS MAY FACE.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE CONSIDERABLY BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH MID WEEK CONDITIONS AS DRY AS THEY HAVE BEEN IN SOME
TIME. HOWEVER...COMPUTER MODELS ARE HINTING AT ANOTHER ROUND OF WET
WEATHER BY FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.  AT THIS TIME THOUGH...THERE ARE NO
INDICATIONS THAT NEXT WEEKENDS EVENT WILL RIVAL THE CURRENT ONE.

DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SLIGHTLY GOING INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...BY TUESDAY NIGHT MORE SWELLS WILL ARRIVE OVER
THE ATLANTIC WATERS...KEEPING HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE GREATER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

VIZ001-002-AMZ710>730-151100-
600 AM AST SUN NOV 14 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...

A BROAD AND ELONGATED AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA WILL DRIFT NORTHEAST TODAY...AS STRONG SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BUILDS INTO THE LOCAL AREA.  THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO HAS MAINTAINED A STRONG NORTHEAST
TO NORTH NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS THE
LAST FEW DAYS ...BUT THIS WILL BEGIN TO EASE AS THE DAY WEARS ON.
FOR THE TIME BEING.

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS
...WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGHOUT
THE DAY.  THESE WILL PRODUCE SPORADIC...HEAVY RAINS ...WHICH COULD
CAUSE LOCALIZED STREET FLOODING.

LONG PERIOD NORTH NORTHEAST SWELLS...COMBINED WITH STRONG NORTHEAST
WINDS...IS ALSO CONTRIBUTING TO DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND VERY
ROUGH SEAS. WAVE HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 11 FEET...WITH BREAKING WAVES OF 10
TO PERHAPS 16 FEET WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS EARLY TODAY BEFORE SLOWLY DECREASING. THE POTENTIAL FOR
COASTAL FLOODING AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE WILL ALSO PERSIST. FOR
THIS REASON...A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING FOR NORTHERN COASTAL AREAS OF PUERTO RICO...
VIEQUES ...AND CULEBRA. IN ADDITION ...HIGH SURF AND SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT TO EMPHASIZE ADDITIONAL HAZARDS THAT
MARINERS AND BEACHGOERS MAY FACE.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE CONSIDERABLY BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH MID WEEK CONDITIONS AS DRY AS THEY HAVE BEEN IN SOME
TIME. HOWEVER...COMPUTER MODELS ARE HINTING AT ANOTHER ROUND OF WET
WEATHER BY FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.  AT THIS TIME THOUGH...THERE ARE NO
INDICATIONS THAT NEXT WEEKENDS EVENT WILL RIVAL THE CURRENT ONE.

DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SLIGHTLY GOING INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...BY TUESDAY NIGHT MORE SWELLS WILL ARRIVE OVER
THE ATLANTIC WATERS...KEEPING HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE GREATER PART OF NEXT WEEK.