Alert archive / Puerto Rico / Flash Flood Warnings in 2004
Flash Flood Warning 70, NWS JSJ
NWS JSJ issued this flash flood warning at Oct 31, 2004, 12:19 PM CST. It was in force for 19 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Oct 31, 2004, 12:19 PM CST (18:19 UTC)
- Expired
- Nov 1, 2004, 7:15 AM CST
- In force
- 19 hr
- Issued by
- NWS JSJ
- Area
- Counties, with a storm outline in the text
Did it verify
Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this flash flood warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.
Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
000
WGCA52 TJSJ 311822
FFWSJU
PRC021-033-061-105-127-135-137-312115-
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
219 PM AST SUN OCT 31 2004
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A
* A FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES
IN PUERTO RICO
NARANJITO
SAN JUAN
TOA ALTA
BAYAMON
GUAYNABO
CATANO
TOA BAJA
* UNTIL 515 PM AST
* AT 217 PM AST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
VERY HEAVY RAIN OVER THE SAN JUAN METRO AREA. RADAR ESTIMATED OVER 2
INCHES OF RAINFALL ACCUMULATION WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OCCURRING.
THIS WARNING INCLUDES ALL RIVERS AND STREAMS AND THEIR TRIBUTARIES IN
THE WARNED AREA
EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...HIGHWAYS AND UNDERPASSES. ADDITIONALLY...ROADS
AND LAND ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS...STREAMS AND OTHER LOW LYING
AREAS ARE SUBJECT TO FLOODING. THE HEAVY RAIN COULD ALSO CAUSE
MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.
A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLASH FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR HAS
BEEN REPORTED. EVACUATE TO HIGHER GROUND AND TAKE THE NECESSARY
PRECAUTIONS SHOULD FLOOD WATERS AFFECT YOUR AREA. MOTORISTS AND
PEDESTRIANS SHOULD NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS FLOODED ROADS AND AREAS...AS
YOU AND YOUR VEHICLE MIGHT BE SWEPT AWAY BY FLOOD WATERS. PERSONS IN
LOW LYING AREAS SHOULD SEEK HIGHER GROUND. FOLLOW INSTRUCTIONS FROM
LOCAL CIVIL DEFENSE OR LAW OFFICIALS.
LAT...LON 1845 6605 1834 6605 1831 6608 1830 6614
1830 6632 1845 6622
$$
ELM1 follow-up statement
000
WGCA72 TJSJ 312116
FFSSJU
PRC021-033-061-105-127-135-137-312200-
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
515 PM AST SUN OCT 31 2004
THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING ISSUED EARLIER BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR THE FOLLOWING
MUNICIPALITIES
IN PUERTO RICO
NARANJITO
SAN JUAN
TOA ALTA
BAYAMON
GUAYNABO
CATANO
TOA BAJA
AT 510 PM AST WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE HEAVY
RAINS WHICH AFFECTED THESE AREAS EARLIER HAVE DECREASED.
THEREFORE FLASH FLOODING NO LONGER EXISTS AND THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING
HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE SOME ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS ACROSS THESE MUNICIPALITIES DURING THE EVENING HOURS. ANY
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL QUICKLY RUNOFF. THEREFORE...RESIDENTS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO USE CAUTION.
ALTHOUGH FLASH FLOODING NO LONGER EXISTS YOU SHOULD CONTINUE TO
REMAIN ALERT FOR ANY LINGERING WATER ON THE ROADWAYS AND HIGH STREAM
OR RIVER LEVELS.
$$What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS JSJ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Oct 31, 3:00 AM CST, 9 hours 19 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Oct 31, 3:00 AM CST, 9 hours 19 minutes before
PUERTO RICO AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR 500 AM AST SUN OCT 31 2004 .DISCUSSION... CONSIDERABLE AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF A LOW LEVEL TROUGH WHICH HAD SHIFTED BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS THE REGION...AFTER LINGERING ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS. DEEP MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL REGION WITH A JET SEGMENT MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA AT BASE OF TROUGH IN WESTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR LOW LEVEL CONVECTION OVER THE LOCAL REGION TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT UPPER TROUGH WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE REGION AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED VORTICITY CENTER SINKS FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WEST ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE BUILD AND SINK SOUTH ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS... THEREBY TIGHTENING THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS WILL PROVIDE A MODERATE EASTERLY WIND FLOW AND GOOD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE OVER THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A TROPICAL WAVE WITH AN ASSOCIATED WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 18 NORTH 60 WEST THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD AND ENTER THE LOCAL REGION TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE INTERACTION OF THESE FEATURES AND LOCAL EFFECTS WILL MAINTAIN FAIR AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE EARLY PORTIONS OF THE WEEK. && .MARINE... THE TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AIDED BY A TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL ENHANCE THE LOCAL TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS. THE INTERACTION OF UPPER TROUGH AND A MID LEVEL VORTICITY CENTER COMBINED WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS AND MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE AREAS OF DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH MONDAY. MARINERS SHOULD THEREFORE REMAIN ALERT FOR ASSOCIATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER CONDITIONS. NORTHERLY SWELLS WILL PERSIST AT LEAST THROUGH THROUGH TUESDAY WITH SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FEET IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS. MARINERS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION IN NEAR SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SJU 87 75 86 75 / 40 40 40 60 STT 87 76 86 76 / 40 40 40 60 && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...SCA AMZ710. VI...NONE. && MITCHELL
Hazardous weather outlook, Oct 31, 4:30 AM CST, 7 hours 49 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR 630 AM AST SUN OCT 31 2004 PRZ001>013-AMZ710>750-011100- 630 AM AST SUN OCT 31 2004 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PUERTO RICO. .TODAY AND TONIGHT... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR WEST AND GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS MAKING CONDITIONS FAVORABLE TO HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PUERTO RICO. AREAS OF URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING ARE EXPECTED AND AN ISOLATED LOCAL RISE IN AREA RIVERS APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING FLOOD STAGE IS POSSIBLE. .SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE ON MONDAY AND AN APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVES WILL BRING HEAVIER THAN USUAL AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL TO THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HEAVIER RAINFALL IS ALSO INDICATED FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THAT MAY RESULT IN LOCAL URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING. VIZ001-002-AMZ710>730-011100- 630 AM AST SUN OCT 31 2004 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. .TODAY AND TONIGHT... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THAT MAY CAUSE GUTS TO RUN FULL AND PONDING IN LOW LYING AREAS. OTHERWISE NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY CAUSE GUTS TO RUN FULL MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ALSO INDICATED ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THAT MAY CAUSE GUTS TO RUN FULL. SNELL
Nearby
Flash Flood Warnings in Puerto Rico, 2004Every flash flood warning in 2004
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.