Flash Flood Warning 54, NWS JSJ

PUERTO RICO AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
609 AM AST WED SEP 15 2004

.SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL STORM JEANNE WAS ABOUT 25 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
SAINT CROIX AT 5 AM AST. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE IN
SOUTHEAST PUERTO RICO AROUND 10 AM AND EXIT THE NORTHWEST CORNER
AROUND 7 PM AST TONIGHT. ANOTHER WAVE IS NEAR 41 WEST. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE IS NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND EAST OF
CONNECTICUT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...JEANNE STILL EXHIBITS ALL THE CHARACTERISTICS OF A
TROPICAL STORM. CONVECTION IS RATHER ASSYMETRICALLY DISTRIBUTED
AROUND THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION AND EVEN AT 9000 FEET WINDS IN
JEANNE HAVE ONLY BEEN MEASURED BY DOPPLER RADAR TO 64 KNOTS.
UNOFFICIAL WINDS PEAKED IN SAINT CROIX AT MARIA HILL AT 88 MPH AT
2:54 AM. AVERAGE WIND SPEEDS THERE HAVE BEEN AROUND THE MID 50S.
HEAVY RAINS ARE MOVING OVER THE WATERS JUST EAST OF PUERTO RICO AND
WILL BE MOVING ON SHORE BEFORE 7 AM. THE RADAR HINTS AT A PARTIAL
EYE WALL BUT CONVECTION DOES NOT EXTEND ENTIRELY AROUND IT YET.
LINEAR EXTRAPOLATION OF THE CURRENT MOVEMENT WOULD BRING IT ONTO THE
SOUTHEAST OR SOUTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO AROUND 10 AM POSSIBLY
BETWEEN ARROYO AND PONCE. THIS WOULD PLACE MOST OF PUERTO RICO IN
THE MOST ACTIVE QUADRANT OF THE STORM. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO
TRANSVERSE MUCH OF PUERTO RICO AND VERY HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO
CAUSE FLOODING OVER MANY AND WIDESPREAD AREAS OF PUERTO RICO.
RAINS OF OVER TWO AND ONE HALF INCHES HAVE ALREADY FALLEN IN
CHRISTIANSTED AT THE AIRPORT.

THE SOUNDING AT 06Z WAS MOIST...THOUGH NOT AS MUCH AS AT 00Z. WINDS
WERE EAST TO EAST NORTHEAST AND REACHED A MAXIMUM OF 35 KNOTS AT 2.1
AND 3.6 KM. THIS DOES NOT SUGGEST A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
TORNADOES AT THIS TIME.

WITH STRONG WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF SAINT CROIX THE COASTAL FLOOD
WATCH THERE HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING. AREAS OF
THE COAST WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE HIGH WATER. HIGH TIDE IS ALSO AT
7:11 AM THIS MORNING.

RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS THROUGH THURSDAY AS MOISTURE REMAINS GOOD. WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW FOR MOST THE WEEK AND WEEK END RAINS SHOULD FAVOR THE
CORDILLERA CENTRAL NIGHTS AND THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO DURING THE AFTERNOONS. THESE AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
VULNERABLE TO FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE NEXT WAVE CURRENTLY AT 41 WEST SHOULD LIFT NORTHWEST BEFORE
REACHING THE AREA...HOWEVER SOME MOISTURE RETURNS ON TUESDAY AND MAY
INCREASE SHOWER ACTIVITY. CURRENTLY MODELS SHOW MOISTURE FROM JEANNE
MOVING INTO THE BAHAMAS BUT REMAINING DRAPED OVER A WIDE AREA NORTH
OF US. THE TAIL OF THIS MOISTURE WILL AFFECT US FOR A CONSIDERABLE
PERIOD OF TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  86  76  87  78 / 100  80  60  30
STT  87  76  88  77 / 100  80  60  50

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...HURRICANE WARNING PRZALL AND AMZALL. CFW PRZALL.
     FFA PRZALL.
VI...HURRICANE WARNING VIZALL AND AMZ 710>730. CFW AND FFA VIZALL.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING VIZ002.

&&

SNELL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
630 AM AST WED SEP 15 2004

PRZ001>013-AMZ710>750-161000-
630 AM AST WED SEP 15 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PUERTO RICO.

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...
RAINBANDS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM JEANNE
WILL BECOME MORE FREQUENT ACROSS THE ISLAND THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS
THE TROPICAL STORM APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE ISLAND. THE PRESENT
TRAJECTORY HAS THE STORM ENTERING THE SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE
ISLAND BY MID MORNING AND EXITING THE NORTHWEST DURING THE EVENING.
THEREFORE...EXPECT PUERTO RICO AND ADJACENT ISLANDS TO SEE COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL WITH TROPICAL FORCE WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. THESE FREQUENT RAINBANDS ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED URBAN AND SMALL STREAM
FLOODING AS TROPICAL STORM JEANNE CROSSES THE ISLAND.
ADDITIONALLY...THE HEAVY RAINS WILL ALSO RESULT IN RAPIDLY RISING
RIVERS ...MUDSLIDES OVER STEEP TERRAIN...AND ISOLATED...LIFE
THREATENING FLASH FLOODING. REFER TO LOCAL STATEMENTS FOR UPDATES ON
THE TOPICAL STORM.

...THE COASTAL FLOOD WATCH AND HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR
ALL COASTLINES OF PUERTO RICO TO  AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

...A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF PUERTO RICO AND
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
INCLEMENT WEATHER AND WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM JEANNE
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA AT LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
THEREAFTER THE STORM WILL HAVE EXITED THE ISLANDS AND RAINBAND
ACTIVITY AND WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH. TRAILING
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK
AND AS A RESULT THE POTENTIAL FOR CONTINUED URBAN AND SMALL STREAM
FLOODING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. DUE TO THE UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERIC AND
SOIL CONDITIONS FLASH FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES WILL ALSO REMAIN A
POSSIBILITY THROUGH SATURDAY.

VIZ001-002-AMZ710>730-161000-
630 AM AST WED SEP 15 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...
TROPICAL FORCE WINDS AND COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ISLANDS ESPECIALLY OVER THE
ISLAND OF SAINT CROIX WHERE THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JEANNE WAS
LOCATED ABOUT 25 MILES SOUTH OF SAINT CROIX. FLOODING OF GUTS...LOW
LYING...POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND ROADWAYS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH ALSO THE POSSIBILITY OF LANDSLIDES IN AREAS
OF STEEP TERRAIN. REFER TO LOCAL STATEMENTS FOR UPDATES ON THE
TOPICAL STORM.

...THE COASTAL FLOOD WATCH AND HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR
ALL COASTLINES OF PUERTO RICO TO  AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

...A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF PUERTO RICO AND
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUIRED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
INCLEMENT WEATHER AND WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM JEANNE
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA AT LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
THEREAFTER THE STORM WILL HAVE EXITED THE ISLAND AND RAINBAND
ACTIVITY AND WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH. TRAILING
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK
AND AS A RESULT THE POTENTIAL FOR CONTINUED FLOODING OF GUTS...POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS AND ROADWAYS DUE TO ADDITIONAL RAINS. DUE TO THE
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERIC AND SOIL CONDITIONS LANDSLIDES WILL ALSO REMAIN
A POSSIBILITY THROUGH SATURDAY.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB
SITE FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AT (ALL LOWERCASE
LETTERS): HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SJU.