Tornado Warning 92, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
220 PM EDT FRI SEP 24 2004

...HURRICANE JEANNE TO AFFECT AREA THIS WEEKEND...

.SHORT TERM...LARGE UPPER HIGH HAS MOVED OFF THE ATLC COAST S OF THE
DELMARVA PENINSULA. RIDGING CONTINUES TO THE SW OF THIS FEATURE TO
THE E CENTRAL GOMEX. AT THE SFC...A CONVERGENT BAND HAS FORMED ALONG
THE ATLC COAST WITH INCREASED CLOUDS AND SOME GENERALLY LIGHT
SHOWERS AS GRADIENT FLOW HAS PICKED UP.

THE FORECAST IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE FUTURE TRACK OF JEANNE. ALL
FORECASTS OF WINDS...CLOUDS AND PRECIP FIELDS HAVE BEEN TIED
CLOSELY TO THE TPC FCST TRACK AND HPC QPF PROGS. NOT MUCH ELSE TO
ADD IN NEAR TERM...OTHER THAN TEMP TWEAKS. HAVE GENERALLY LEANED
TOWARD WARMER MOS SAT AND TOWARD COOLER MOS SUN. NIGHTTIME LOWS
FROM GFS AND ETA WERE SIMILAR AND GENERALLY BLENDED. SINCE
JEANNE TRACK HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH...MOST GRIDS WERE NOT CHANGED
SIGNIFICANTLY OTHER THAN TO BOOST POPS A BIT.

WILL LIKELY HOIST AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WATCH FOR PUTNAM AND
CLAY...AND AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WIND WATCH FOR BRADFORD...
ALACHUA...AND MARION. THIS IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON 5 PM TPC
ADVISORY...AND WILL HOLD OFF ISSUANCE TIL AFTER CONF CALL.

.LONG TERM...NOT MUCH CHANGE...OTHER THAN TO TWEAK MAX TEMPS UP A
BIT ON TUE AS SUN RETURNS AND SUBSIDENCE WARMS TEMPS OVER CLIMO.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS ON THE INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON. R8 TOWER
REPORTING 10 FOOT SEAS AT 17Z. WINDS RIGHT AROUND 20 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WATERS. FORECAST HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON EXACT TRACK
OF JEANNE. FCST GRIDS VERY CLOSE TO TCM GRIDS AND WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE.

WILL CONTINUE HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR DUVAL/NASSAU UNLESS WATCHES ARE
EXTENDED NORTHWARD. WITH NNE FLOW AND 6 FOOT SEAS AT GRAYS REEF...WILL
NOT EXTEND HIGH SURF ADVISORY INTO GEORGIA WATERS AT THIS TIME.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 66 84 66 84 / 10 10 30 50
SSI 73 82 75 80 / 10 20 50 60
JAX 69 83 73 82 / 10 30 50 70
SGJ 75 82 78 81 / 20 40 50 90
GNV 68 85 71 82 / 20 20 50 80
OCF 68 84 71 81 / 20 30 50 90
&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HUR WATCH SAINT AUGUSTINE SOUTH.
     INLAND HUR WIND WATCH CLAY AND PUTNAM.
     INLAND TS WIND WATCH ALACHUA...BRADFORD AND MARION.
     HIGH SURF ADV DUVAL AND NASSAU.
     SMALL CRAFT ADV FERNANDINA BCH-SAINT AUGUSTINE.
GA...SMALL CRAFT ADV ALTAMAHA SND-FERNANDINA BCH.

&&

CARROLL/CAMP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
517 PM EDT FRI SEP 24 2004

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-251000-
ALACHUA-APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BAKER-BRADFORD-BRANTLEY-
CAMDEN (COASTAL)-CAMDEN (INLAND)-CHARLTON-CLAY-CLINCH-COFFEE-
COLUMBIA-DUVAL-ECHOLS-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-GLYNN (COASTAL)-
GLYNN (INLAND)-HAMILTON-JEFF DAVIS-MARION-NASSAU-PIERCE-PUTNAM-
ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION-WARE-WAYNE-
517 PM EDT FRI SEP 24 2004

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

...HURRICANE WARNING FROM ST. AUGUSTINE SOUTHWARD...
...HURRICANE WATCH FROM NORTH OF ST. AUGUSTINE FLORIDA TO ALTAMAHA
SOUND IN SOUTH GEORGIA...
...INLAND HURRICANE WIND WATCH FOR CLAY AND PUTNAM COUNTIES...
...INLAND TROPICAL STORM WIND WATCH FOR ALACHUA...BRADFORD AND MARION
COUNTIES...
...SEVERAL RIVERS STILL ABOVE FLOOD STAGE...

AT 5 PM...A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM ST. AUGUSTINE
SOUTHWARD...WITH A HURRICANE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF ST.
AUGUSTINE TO ALTAMAHA SOUND IN SOUTH GEORGIA. A INLAND HURRICANE WIND
WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR CLAY AND PUTNAM COUNTIES...WITH A INLAND
TROPICAL STORM WIND WATCH FOR ALACHUA...BRADFORD AND MARION
COUNTIES. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT FROM
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN JACKSONVILLE FOR DETAILS ON
IMPACTS FROM HURRICANE JEANNE.

SEVERAL AREA RIVERS REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. PLEASE REFER TO THE
LATEST RIVER FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR MORE INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

HURRICANE JEANNE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE FLORIDA EAST COAST OVER
THE WEEKEND. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL BE INCREASING ON SATURDAY
IN ADVANCE OF THE HURRICANE.

PRECAUTIONARY ACTIONS...
REVIEW YOUR FAMILYS HURRICANE PLAY AND HURRICANE KIT. IF YOU ARE IN
THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA OR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA IT IS RECOMMENDED TO BE
PREPARED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE FORCE
CONDITIONS. ENSURE YOUR HURRICANE KIT IS WELL STOCKED AND UP TO DATE.
REVIEW THE WORKING CONDITION OF EMERGENCY EQUIPMENT...SUCH AS
FLASHLIGHTS AND BATTERY POWERED RADIOS. REVIEW EVACUATION ROUTES
SHOULD THAT BECOME NECESSARY. MARINE INTERESTS MAY WISH TO TAKE
PRECAUTIONS AT THIS TIME...ESPECIALLY IF YOU WILL BE AWAY FROM YOUR
BOAT. HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENTS WILL BE ISSUED AT LEAST EVERY 6
HOURS AS LONG AS WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAX.

ARS/ECZ