Tornado Warning 65, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
934 PM EDT MON SEP 6 2004

.PUBLIC UPDATE...WILL DROP WIND ADVISORY FOR INTERIOR NORTHEAST
FLORIDA AS SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED BELOW 30 MPH. WIND
ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ELSEWHERE OVERNIGHT. RAINBANDS
CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE REGION...THEREFORE WILL KEEP HIGH POPS
AREA-WIDE. WILL INCLUDE CATEGORICAL POPS FOR JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE.
TORNADO WATCH FOR EASTERN HALF OF CWA IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT.
WILL UPDATE FORECAST PACKAGE TO INCREASE POPS.
&&

.MARINE UPDATE...REGIONAL OBS INDICATE SELY FLOW OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS CERTAINLY EXCEEDING GALE FORCE. FLUCTUATIONS IN WIND
SPEEDS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...THEREFORE RELUCTANT TO DOWNGRADE GALE
WARNING. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE TUESDAY...ALBEIT SLOWLY...
AS FRANCES DRIFTS NORTH OVER GEORGIA/ALABAMA. NO UPDATES PLANNED.
&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...WIND ADVISORY COASTAL NE FL.
     FLOOD WATCH NE FL.
     GALE WARNING FERNANDINA BEACH TO FLAGLER BEACH.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY FERNANDINA BEACH TO FLAGLER BEACH.
GA...WIND ADVISORY SE GA.
     FLOOD WATCH SE GA.
     GALE WARNING ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH.

.CURRENTLY...TS FRANCES NEAR ST MARKS FL AT 2 PM WITH MOVEMENT
TOWARD THE NNW AROUND 8 MPH. RAINBANDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING AND PROBABLY SEE A TAPERING OFF TOWARD EARLY MORNING. AS FAR
AS HEAVY RAINFALL...GREATEST CONCERN IS OVER THE NEXT 12 HRS AND THE
OUTER RAINBAND ON ERN SIDE OF CWA. THUS CURRENT FLOOD WATCH LOOKS
FINE AS PAST SEVERAL HOURS HAS SHOWN 1-2 INCH AMOUNTS ERN CWA WITH
ISOLD 3 INCH IN BACON...BRANTLEY...NASSAU AND DUVAL COUNTIES.
MOD-STG LOW LEVEL WINDS...LOW LEVEL HELICITY VALUES NEAR 400+ AND
CAPES NEAR 500-1500 J/KG CERTAINLY SUPPORT FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
A FEW BRIEF TORNADOES. TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT NOW FOR ENTIRE CWA
UNTIL 8 PM. APPEARS GREATEST CONCERN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
WILL BE OVER THE NE ZONES WHERE RADAR TRENDS AND LAPS ANALYSES.
EXPECT GRADIENT WINDS TO ONLY SLOWLY DIMINISH TONIGHT SO WILL KEEP A
WIND ADVISORY FOR ALL ZONES TONIGHT. FOR TUE...AS FRANCES ADVANCES
NNW INTO EXTREME ERN AL/WRN GA MODERATE SLY FLOW EXPECTED WITH
DAYTIME HEATING AND CONVERGENCE LEADING TO SCT TO CATEGORICAL POPS
WITH HIGHEST IN SE GA. MODELS MAY BE TOO SLOW MOVING FRANCES
ALTHOUGH WHEN TCS RECURVE THEY TYPICALLY SLOW DOWN. WILL GENERALLY
LEAN TOWARD BLEND OF POP GUIDANCE (IE GFS). WED AND THU...HIGH
THETA-E AT 850MB AND GOOD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD GENERALLY
SUPPORT GOOD SHOWER AND TSTM COVERAGE SO HAVE BUMPED UP POPS
SLIGHTLY. CONSENSUS MODEL TEMPS LOOK BEST ATTM.

.EXTDD...FRI-MON. GFS CONTS TO INDICATE 5H TROUGH FROM THE ERN GREAT
LAKES AREA SSW TOWARD THE SE CONUS. THIS TROUGH APPEARS TO FILL OVER
THE WEEKEND AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. RIBBON OF
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL SIT OVER PORTIONS OF THE ERN U.S. INTO SRN
FL. BIG QUESTION WILL BE WHAT HAPPENS TO IVAN AS IT MOVES INTO THE
NW CARIBBEAN. FOR NOW APPEARS THAT THE WE WILL REMAIN IN A NE TO E
FLOW WITH BEST RAIN CHANCES IN THE SRN HALF OF CWA AND NEAR THE
COASTAL AREAS. WITH NE-E WINDS MAX TEMPS COOLER NEAR THE COAST.
OTHERWISE...TEMPS AND POPS APPEAR NEAR NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...WILL CONTINUE GALE WARNING AS OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO
SHOW FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE...SEAS HAVE COME DOWN TO 10 TO 13
FEET AT BOUYS. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH
WINDS VEERING TO THE SOUTHWEST AND DECREASING.  HIGH SURF ADVISORY
TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

ECZ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1049 PM EDT MON SEP 6 2004

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-070900-
ALACHUA-APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BAKER-BRADFORD-BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLAY-
CLINCH-COASTAL CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN-COFFEE-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-ECHOLS-
FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND GLYNN-JEFF DAVIS-
MARION-NASSAU-PIERCE-PUTNAM-ST. JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION-WARE-WAYNE-
1049 PM EDT MON SEP 6 2004

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...REMAINDER OF TONIGHT...

...WIND ADVISORY FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND COASTAL NORTHEAST
FLORIDA...
...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...
...TORNADO WATCH CONTINUES UNTIL 500 AM EDT TUESDAY...
...FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES UNTIL 600 AM EDT TUESDAY...

ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRANCES HAS SHIFTED INTO
SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...OUTER RAINBANDS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE LOCAL
REGION. REFER TO LOCAL PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE IN JACKSONVILLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
AT LEAST EARLY TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO DEPARTING FRANCES. RESIDENTS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR RIVER LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEK. RAINFALL
WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED BY MID-WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED. PLEASE RELAY ANY REPORTS OF
SEVERE WEATHER OR FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND LOCAL
COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAX.

ECZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1051 PM EDT MON SEP 06 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1045 PM     TROPICAL STORM   HOMERVILLE              31.04N 82.75W
09/06/2004                   CLINCH             GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES REPORTED DOWN COUNTY WIDE DURING THE DAY.

1045 PM     TROPICAL STORM   DOUGLAS                 31.51N 82.85W
09/06/2004                   COFFEE             GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES REPORTED DOWN COUNTY-WIDE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

1045 PM     TROPICAL STORM   WAYCROSS                31.21N 82.36W
09/06/2004                   WARE               GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES AND POWERLINES REPORTED DOWN THROUGHOUT THE COUNTY.

&&

CAMP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1107 PM EDT MON SEP 06 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1030 PM     FLOOD            BLACKSHEAR              31.30N 82.24W
09/06/2004                   PIERCE             GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NUMEROUS COUNTRY ROADS FLOODED.

1030 PM     FLOOD            JESUP                   31.60N 81.89W
09/06/2004                   WAYNE              GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MANY SECONDARY ROADS FLOODED.

1030 PM     FLOOD            BAXLEY                  31.76N 82.35W
09/06/2004                   APPLING            GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MANY SECONDARY ROADS FLOODED COUNTYWIDE.

1030 PM     FLOOD            PEARSON                 31.30N 82.85W
09/06/2004                   ATKINSON           GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MANY ROADS FLOODED COUNTYWIDE. HWY 520 CLOSE TO BEING
            FLOODED.

&&

CAMP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1155 PM EDT MON SEP 06 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1130 PM     FLOOD            TRENTON                 29.61N 82.82W
09/06/2004                   GILCHRIST          FL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SECONDARY ROADS FLOODED COUNTYWIDE. HWY 232 WEST AND HWY
            129 FLOODED.

1130 PM     FLOOD            LAKE BUTLER             30.02N 82.34W
09/06/2004                   UNION              FL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SECONDARY ROADS FLOODED COUNTYWIDE.

1130 PM     FLOOD            MACCLENNY               30.28N 82.13W
09/06/2004                   BAKER              FL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SECONDARY ROADS FLOODED COUNTRYWIDE.

1130 PM     FLOOD            LAKE CITY               30.19N 82.64W
09/06/2004                   COLUMBIA           FL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            10 SECONDARY ROADS FLOODED. 14 SECONDARY ROADS CLOSE TO
            BEING FLOODED. RETENTION PONDS NEARLY FULL.

&&

CAMP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1216 AM EDT TUE SEP 07 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1000 PM     TSTM WND DMG     JESUP                   31.60N 81.89W
09/06/2004                   WAYNE              GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            *** 1 INJ *** TREE FELL ONTO HOUSE LOCATED ON SPRING
            GROVE ROAD. WIDESPREAD TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN
            COUNTY-WIDE. INFORMATION RELAYED VIA EMERGENCY MANAGER.

&&

ECZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
118 AM EDT TUE SEP 7 2004

FLZ022-030-035-036-070600-
ALACHUA FL-COLUMBIA FL-GILCHRIST FL-UNION FL-
118 AM EDT TUE SEP 7 2004

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALACHUA...UNION...
COLUMBIA AND GILCHRIST COUNTIES FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM WINDS VALID
UNTIL 2 AM EDT...

AT 118 AM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
11 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ICHETUCKNEE SPRINGS STATE TO 4 MILES NORTH OF
TRENTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. THIS CLUSTER OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND OLENO STATE PARK...HIGH
SPRINGS...DUKES...BELL...FORT WHITE...LULU AND COLUMBIA THROUGH 2
AM EDT. GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH
POSSIBLE MINOR WIND DAMAGE. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS AND MINOR FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...OR YOU CAN CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE DIRECTLY AT 1-800-499-1594.

HESS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
151 AM EDT TUE SEP 7 2004

FLZ040-070630-
MARION FL-
151 AM EDT TUE SEP 7 2004

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MARION COUNTY FOR
STRONG THUNDERSTORM WINDS VALID UNTIL 230 AM EDT...

AT 151 AM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED 3 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
OCALA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH. THIS CLUSTER OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND SANTOS...OCALA AIRPORT...
OCALA...ANTHONY...SPARR...FORT MCCOY...CITRA AND BURBANK THROUGH 230
AM EDT. GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH
POSSIBLE MINOR WIND DAMAGE. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS AND MINOR FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...OR YOU CAN CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE DIRECTLY AT 1-800-499-1594.

HESS