Tornado Warning 59, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
240 PM EDT MON SEP 6 2004

.CURRENTLY...TS FRANCES NEAR ST MARKS FL AT 2 PM WITH MOVEMENT
TOWARD THE NNW AROUND 8 MPH. RAINBANDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING AND PROBABLY SEE A TAPERING OFF TOWARD EARLY MORNING. AS FAR
AS HEAVY RAINFALL...GREATEST CONCERN IS OVER THE NEXT 12 HRS AND THE
OUTER RAINBAND ON ERN SIDE OF CWA. THUS CURRENT FLOOD WATCH LOOKS
FINE AS PAST SEVERAL HOURS HAS SHOWN 1-2 INCH AMOUNTS ERN CWA WITH
ISOLD 3 INCH IN BACON...BRANTLEY...NASSAU AND DUVAL COUNTIES.
MOD-STG LOW LEVEL WINDS...LOW LEVEL HELICITY VALUES NEAR 400+ AND
CAPES NEAR 500-1500 J/KG CERTAINLY SUPPORT FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
A FEW BRIEF TORNADOES. TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT NOW FOR ENTIRE CWA
UNTIL 8 PM. APPEARS GREATEST CONCERN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
WILL BE OVER THE NE ZONES WHERE RADAR TRENDS AND LAPS ANALYSES.
EXPECT GRADIENT WINDS TO ONLY SLOWLY DIMINISH TONIGHT SO WILL KEEP A
WIND ADVISORY FOR ALL ZONES TONIGHT. FOR TUE...AS FRANCES ADVANCES
NNW INTO EXTREME ERN AL/WRN GA MODERATE SLY FLOW EXPECTED WITH
DAYTIME HEATING AND CONVERGENCE LEADING TO SCT TO CATEGORICAL POPS
WITH HIGHEST IN SE GA. MODELS MAY BE TOO SLOW MOVING FRANCES
ALTHOUGH WHEN TCS RECURVE THEY TYPICALLY SLOW DOWN. WILL GENERALLY
LEAN TOWARD BLEND OF POP GUIDANCE (IE GFS). WED AND THU...HIGH
THETA-E AT 850MB AND GOOD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD GENERALLY
SUPPORT GOOD SHOWER AND TSTM COVERAGE SO HAVE BUMPED UP POPS
SLIGHTLY. CONSENSUS MODEL TEMPS LOOK BEST ATTM.

.EXTDD...FRI-MON. GFS CONTS TO INDICATE 5H TROUGH FROM THE ERN GREAT
LAKES AREA SSW TOWARD THE SE CONUS. THIS TROUGH APPEARS TO FILL OVER
THE WEEKEND AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. RIBBON OF
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL SIT OVER PORTIONS OF THE ERN U.S. INTO SRN
FL. BIG QUESTION WILL BE WHAT HAPPENS TO IVAN AS IT MOVES INTO THE
NW CARIBBEAN. FOR NOW APPEARS THAT THE WE WILL REMAIN IN A NE TO E
FLOW WITH BEST RAIN CHANCES IN THE SRN HALF OF CWA AND NEAR THE
COASTAL AREAS. WITH NE-E WINDS MAX TEMPS COOLER NEAR THE COAST.
OTHERWISE...TEMPS AND POPS APPEAR NEAR NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...WILL CONTINUE GALE WARNING AS OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO
SHOW FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE...SEAS HAVE COME DOWN TO 10 TO 13
FEET AT BOUYS. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH
WINDS VEERING TO THE SOUTHWEST AND DECREASING.  HIGH SURF ADVISORY
TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 73 86 74 87 / 99 90 60 50
SSI 78 85 76 87 / 70 70 40 50
JAX 75 86 75 89 / 70 60 40 50
SGJ 78 87 76 87 / 60 60 40 40
GNV 74 86 74 88 / 70 70 40 50
OCF 74 85 74 88 / 60 60 40 50

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...WIND ADVISORY NE FL.
     FLOOD WATCH NE FL.
     GALE WARNING FERNANDINA BEACH TO FLAGLER BEACH.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY FERNANDINA BEACH TO FLAGLER BEACH.
GA...WIND ADVISORY SE GA.
     FLOOD WATCH SE GA.
     GALE WARNING ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH.
&&

ARS/MZ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
630 PM EDT MON SEP 6 2004

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-070000-
ALACHUA-APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BAKER-BRADFORD-BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLAY-
CLINCH-COASTAL CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN-COFFEE-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-ECHOLS-
FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND GLYNN-JEFF DAVIS-
MARION-NASSAU-PIERCE-PUTNAM-ST. JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION-WARE-WAYNE-
630 PM EDT MON SEP 6 2004

.DAY ONE...REMAINDER OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...
...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...
...TORNADO WATCH CONTINUES UNTIL 8 PM...
...FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES UNTIL 600 AM EDT TUESDAY...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRANCES HAS REACHED SOUTHWEST
GEORGIA...WITH A NORTHERLY TRACK FORECAST THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE
MAIN IMPACTS FROM FRANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS OUTER
RAINBANDS IMPACT THE LOCAL REGION. REFER TO THE TROPICAL STORM
LOCAL STATEMENT ISSUED THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE
FOR FURTHER UPDATES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
AT LEAST EARLY TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO DEPARTING FRANCES. RESIDENTS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR RIVER LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEK. RAINFALL
WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED BY MID-WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED. PLEASE RELAY ANY REPORTS OF
SEVERE WEATHER OR FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND LOCAL
COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAX.

ECZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
519 PM EDT MON SEP 06 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 PM     TROPICAL STORM   ARLINGTON               30.34N 81.60W
09/05/2004                   DUVAL              FL   PUBLIC

            SEVERAL LARGE TREES DOWN ALONG METZ STREET. LARGE TREE
            DOWN ON HOUSE AT CORNER OF NEWS STREET AND EATON STREET.
            NUMEROUS LARGE TREES DOWN ALONG PARENTAL HOME
            ROAD...BETWEEN BOWDEN ROAD AND BEACH BOULEVARD.

&&

ECZ