Flash Flood Warning 18, NWS Northern Indiana

000 
WGUS73 KIWX 031832
FFSIWX
INC181-031900-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
125 PM EST FRI SEP 3 2004

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS EXPIRED...

THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR

  NORTHWEST WHITE COUNTY IN INDIANA

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAINFALL HAS 
ENDED ACROSS NORTHWEST WHITE COUNTY. LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED THAT 
FLOODING WAS RECEDING IN THE MONON AREA WHERE OVER 5 INCHES OF RAIN 
FELL THIS MORNING... HOWEVER SOME STANDING WATER REMAINS ON BACK 
ROADS AND LOW LYING AREAS.  THIS WATER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO GO 
DOWN THIS AFTERNOON. 

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE 
ROADWAY.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
950 AM EST FRI SEP 3 2004

.UPDATE...
HAVE INCREASED SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE TODAY AS CLOUD TOPS CONTINUE TO
COOL AHEAD OF EMBEDDED VORT MAX IN SUBTROPICAL FLOW. RADAR WAS ALSO
SHOWING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE OVER MUCH OF
NORTHERN INDIANA. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON AND PROVIDE THE CHANCE FOR RAIN OVER THE AREA. THE MESO
ETA CONTINUES TO RESOLVE THIS SYSTEM BETTER THAN THE GFS AND THE
ETA...SO HAVE PLACED MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE ETA. LEFT HIGHS IN LOWER
80S MOST AREAS AS WILL NOT NEED MUCH SUN TO WARM QUICKLY IN WARM
AIRMASS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT....UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY
LOCATED WEST OF KHUF HAS BEEN WELL HANDLED BY 18Z AND 00Z MESOETA
MODEL. THIS FEATURE IS PROGGED TO MOVE NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE
DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL INDIANA...WITH SOME OF THE SHOWERS TRYING TO WORK INTO THE
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS OF 6Z. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
INCREASES THIS AM AND PEAKS OUT AROUND 18Z...AS DOES BEST LIFT.
THEREFORE WITH SOME HEATING IN THE AM...INCREASING INSTABILITY AND
APPROACH OF THE WAVE...THINK SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
OCCUR OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH BEST CHC SOUTH THIS AM AND
SHIFTING NORTH FOR THE AFTN. WILL BUMP POPS UP TO HIGH CHC IN
NORTHERN COUNTIES WHERE BEST LIFT/DIVERGENCE IS SET TO BE AROUND
18Z...THEN A DOWNWARD TREND EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVE AS
MAJORITY OF THE ENERGY SHIFTS NE OF THE AREA AFTER 21Z. AS FOR HIGH
TEMPS TODAY...WILL BE SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AROUND TO START THE
DAY...WITH LOWER CLOUDS MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH ANY PRECIP. THIS
BEING SAID...STILL THINK TEMPS SHOULD MANAGE TO RISE TO AROUND OR
JUST INTO THE LOWER 80S...SO NO CHANGES TO TEMPS TODAY.
TONIGHT...MAIN LIFT WITH WAVE WILL SHIFT INTO MICHIGAN AND
OHIO...WITH ANY PRECIP QUICKLY ENDING BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVE.
WILL HOLD ONTO DRY FORECAST OVERNIGHT. DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF
RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA...COULD BE SOME FOG ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT. FOR
NOW WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTION IN ZONES AND LET DAY SHIFT EVALUATE THE
POTENTIAL. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW 60S ONCE AGAIN WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPS NEAR THE LAKE.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY....AGAIN EXTRATROPICAL
MORPHING OF LANDFALLING FRANCES DOMINATES THE LONG TERM. MANY
QUESTIONS REMAIN INCLUDING IF REMAINS OF FRANCES GET INCORPORATED
INTO WRN TROF AND ASSOCD FRONTAL ZONE...TIMING OF WRN TROF EJECTION
INTO THE CNTRL US...AND WHERE EXACTLY FRANCES ENDS UP INLAND. GFS
ALL OVR THE PLACE LATELY FROM RUN TO RUN BUT SIMILAR NOW IN SCOPE
W/ECMWF AND UKMET WHICH SHOW REMAINS OF FRANCES STAYING SOUTH OF
MAIN WESTERLIES WHICH SHIFT INTO CANADA TWD MID WEEK. AS A
RESULT...GIVEN RIDGE ALOFT OVR SOUTHWEST US...REMAINS OF FRANCES
PROGGED TO COME TO A HALT OVR SRN MS RIVER VALLEY AND STAY PUT GIVEN
ABSENCE OF UPSTREAM KICKER. HWVR IN THE LEAST RESULTANT LG SCALE
DOMINATION OF THAT CIRCULATION TO HAVE AN EFFECT HERE. BOTTOM LINE
IS TO KEEP GOING POPS THROUGH WED NIGHT IF NOT INDEED LONGER AS WE
GET CLOSER. UNTIL THEN...NO SUPPORT SUN FOR PRIOR POP MENTION AND
DROPPED THIS AM. SAT LTL BETTER GIVEN RIDGING ALOFT AHD OF DIGGING
WRN TROF AND OVERALL DRYING OUT BUT PERHAPS ENOUGH DESTABILIZATION
IN THE AFTN IN TANDEM W/DEPARTING VESTIGE OF SRN STREAM SYS TO
WARRANT GOING 30. OTHERWISE...MAIN SHOW RELEGATED WITH INCOMING WRN
SYS WHICH AS SUSPECTED YDA HAS SLOWED DOWN CONSIDERABLY GIVEN INFLUX
OF UPSTREAM JET ENERGY DIVING SE OUT OF GULF OF AK. GOING 40S SEEM
VERY REASONABLE THEN W/SOME PENCHANT FOR SVR MONDAY AFTN. FOCUS
THEN  TURNS TO FRANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND WORK NORTH FROM CENTRAL
INDIANA EARLY THIS AM. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE WITH COVERAGE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE SOMEWHAT. WILL GO PREDOMINATE VFR CIGS/VSBY FOR
MOST OF THE DAY WITH A TEMPO IN FOR LATER THIS AM WHEN INSTABILITY
INCREASES AND MAIN ENERGY MOVES OVERHEAD WITH BEST CHANCE. CHC OF
THUNDER ALSO EXISTS BUT DOESNT LOOK WIDESPREAD ENOUGH AT THIS TIME
TO WARRANT MORE THAN A CB MENTION ON THE CIGS. AREAS OF FOG THIS
MORNING SHOULD BURN OFF AS WAVE MOVES CLOSER. PRECIP SHOULD END FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH CIGS IMPROVING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG ONCE AGAIN TOWARDS SAT AM
SO HAVE OPTED FOR TEMPO GROUP IN MVFR FOG FOR NOW.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE
OH...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...SKIP
LONG TERM...JT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
524 AM EST FRI SEP 3 2004...CORRECTED DAY ONE

INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-041000-
ADAMS-ALLENIN-ALLENOH-BERRIEN-BLACKFORD-BRANCH-CASSIN-CASSMI-
DEFIANCE-DEKALB-ELKHART-FULTONIN-FULTONOH-GRANT-HENRY-HILLSDALE-
HUNTINGTON-JAY-KOSCIUSKO-LAGRANGE-LAPORTE-MARSHALL-MIAMI-NOBLE-
PAULDING-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ST JOSEPHIN-ST JOSEPHMI-STARKE-STEUBEN-
VAN WERT-WABASH-WELLS-WHITE-WHITLEY-WILLIAMS-
524 AM EST FRI SEP 3 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN INDIANA...NORTHWEST
OHIO AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...
HOWEVER NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY...WITH A FEW STORMS POSSIBLY SEVERE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

T

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
913 AM EST FRI SEP 03 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 AM     FLASH FLOOD      MONON                   40.86N 86.88W
09/03/2004                   WHITE              IN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WIDESPREAD STREET FLOODING IN MONON. FLOOD WATERS ARE
            BEGINNING TO AFFECT A TRAILER PARK. CARS FLOATING AT A
            CAR DEALERSHIP IN TOWN.

&&

HITCHCOCK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1026 AM EST FRI SEP 03 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1025 AM     HEAVY RAIN       MONON                   40.86N 86.88W
09/03/2004  5.25 INCH        WHITE              IN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            RECORDED AT THE MONON FIRE DEPARTMENT. WIDESPREAD
            FLOODING CONTINUES IN MONON.

&&

HITCHCOCK