Severe Thunderstorm Warning 13, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
255 PM MDT MON MAY 10 2004

.DISCUSSION...DEFINITELY A LOT OF FORECAST CHALLENGES NEXT 72 HOURS
IN TERMS OF FRONTAL AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY POSITIONS AND RESULTANT
IMPACT ON TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL.

MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT SURFACE LOW ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO
IS FORECAST TO DRIFT SOUTHEAST TODAY.  THIS WILL ALLOW COOLER AIR BEHIND
SYNOPTIC COOL FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES TO SPREAD INTO NW THIRD OF
THE FORECAST AREA.  BUT BY THIS AFTERNOON...THE APPROACH OF THE
WESTERN US UPPER TROUGH WILL MAKE ITSELF FELT IN THE AREA AS STRONG
CYCLOGENESIS ENSUES OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.  THIS WILL RESULT IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW BY LATE IN THE
DAY WHICH WILL BRING DEEPER MOISTURE NORTHWESTWARD AND EVENTUALLY WASH
OUT THE COLORADO LOW.

MAIN PROBLEM FOR TODAY BESIDES TEMPERATURES IS WHERE CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP.  OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER CONVECTION HAS ALREADY
SPREAD WELL SW OF GLD AND CURRENT ACTIVITY FROM MCCOOK TO HOXIE WILL
LIKELY REINFORCE THIS BOUNDARY.  CURRENT THINKING IS THAT BEST
POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS SW-W PART OF
FORECAST AREA WHERE MAIN SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE LOCATED AND WHERE
UPSLOPE FLOW MAY SEND A FEW STORMS BACK OUR WAY. MESOETA BRINGS DOWN
ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION FROM NEBRASKA OVER EASTERN HALF OF CWA
DURING THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS WHICH DOESNT SEEM
QUITE RIGHT.

BY TUESDAY THE SURFACE LOW OVER WESTERN DAKOTAS DOMINATES THE FLOW
WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS IN LOW LEVELS. A DRYLINE WILL SET UP
OVER EASTERN COLORADO BUT CONVERGENCE ALONG IT MAY NOT BE ALL THAT
STRONG.  NONETHELESS...WITH DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...MESOETA
DEVELOPS PRECIPITATION EAST OF DRYLINE WHICH THEN LOOKS TO TAKE OFF
DURING THE EVENING AS 50 KT 850 MB JET CRANKS UP. TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND WELL INTO THE 80S TO NEAR
90.

NEXT PROBLEM IS WEDNESDAY...NOT ONLY FOR TEMPERATURES BUT ALSO
PRECIPITATION. STILL UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHEN FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA AND ALSO WHAT ORIENTATION FRONT WILL HAVE
GIVEN APPROACH OF UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE RESPONSE. FOR NOW WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURE CONFIGURATION OF WARM IN THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
AND COOLER IN THE NORTHWEST AND WILL ALSO KEEP POPS GOING.

DIDNT LOOK TOO CLOSE AT FORECAST LATER PERIODS GIVEN AMOUNT OF
DECISIONS IN FIRST THREE DAYS OF FORECAST.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.

&&

DLF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1228 PM MDT MON MAY 10 2004

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-111200-
CHEYENNE KS-CHEYENNE COUNTY CO-DECATUR KS-DUNDY NE-GOVE KS-GRAHAM KS-
GREELEY KS-HITCHCOCK NE-KIT CARSON COUNTY CO-LOGAN KS-NORTON KS-
RAWLINS KS-RED WILLOW NE-SHERIDAN KS-SHERMAN KS-THOMAS KS-WALLACE KS-
WICHITA KS-YUMA COUNTY CO-

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST KANSAS...EXTREME
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS
THE TRI STATE AREA. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON NEAR
THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES AND SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE
PLAINS...REACHING FAR EASTERN COLORADO AFTER 6 PM MDT...AND MOVING
INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE TRI STATE AREA THIS EVENING. SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE AND WIND SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT OVER EASTERN COLORADO TO
SUPPORT SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND EVEN TORNADOES. FURTHER EAST...WIND
SHEAR WILL RELAX AND THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE SOMEWHAT
SUPPRESSED...BUT LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE
NEAR THE STRONGER STORMS. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH BY
MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...AND A WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED ON TUESDAY FOR
WINDS SUSTAINED AT 30 MPH AND GUSTING TO 45 MPH.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND AGAIN
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO EXISTS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS WITH THE
MAIN THREAT BEING CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS EVENING.

DLF/JDK

COZ090>092-110200-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
321 PM MDT MON MAY 10 2004

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN COLORADO
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
FOR EASTERN COLORADO THROUGH 8 PM MDT. THE COUNTIES INCLUDED IN
THIS WATCH ARE KIT CARSON...YUMA AND CHEYENNE COLORADO.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF
COLORADO...THEN MOVE OUT INTO THE PLAINS BY LATE AFTERNOON. HAIL UP
TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SMITH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
612 PM MDT MON MAY 10 2004

KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-110500-
CHEYENNE KS-DECATUR KS-GOVE KS-GRAHAM KS-GREELEY KS-LOGAN KS-
NORTON KS-RAWLINS KS-SHERIDAN KS-SHERMAN KS-THOMAS KS-WALLACE KS-
WICHITA KS-

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWEST KANSAS THIS
EVENING...

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
FOR ALL OF NORTHWEST KANSAS THROUGH 11 PM MDT (MIDNIGHT CDT).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN
THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER
CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.